What to watch for as 49ers' Brock Purdy resumes his battle with Steve Spagnuolo in Super Bowl 58 rematch
In case it wasn't already apparent, this week has made it obvious, Kansas City Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loves San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy. Spagnuolo said in his press conference ahead of the 49ers' Super Bowl 58 rematch with the Chiefs that Purdy is a quarterback without a weakness. That may be an […]
In case it wasn't already apparent, this week has made it obvious, Kansas City Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo loves San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy.
Spagnuolo said in his press conference ahead of the 49ers' Super Bowl 58 rematch with the Chiefs that Purdy is a quarterback without a weakness.
That may be an overstatement, but it's clear Spagnuolo sees Purdy as a player who will be very difficult for the Chiefs to slow down, despite having found success in doing so in an overtime thriller in Las Vegas eight months ago.
In a game that features arguably the best quarterback of all time and will also see 49ers first-round pick Ricky Pearsall make his debut 50 days on from being shot through the chest in an attempted armed robbery, it is Purdy's potential success in dissecting the defenses drawn up by Spagnuolo that will go a long way to determining if the 49ers can finally slay the dragon after two Super Bowl defeats to the Chiefs in the space of five seasons.
To be the man you've got to beat the man
In each of their Super Bowl-losing seasons, the 49ers had an extremely strong case for being considered the best team in the NFL.
Despite outperforming the Chiefs in the regular season in 2019 and 2023, the 49ers have been unable to overcome the challenges posed by Kansas City when it has mattered most. Back in February, the challenge that caused San Francisco the most problems was Kansas City's use of aggressive and physical man coverage.
The 49ers struggled to separate against the Chiefs and, despite Spagnuolo suggesting Kansas City might not have the horses on the back end to use the same approach this time around, the numbers say different.
Kansas City has played Cover 1 on 20.4 percent of its defensive snaps and has played Cover 0 at the third-highest rate in the league, per Match Quarters.
Purdy can therefore likely expect to see a lot of man coverage in this game. The good news for the Niners is that he has excelled at producing explosive plays against Cover 0 and Cover 1 this season. Per Sports Info Solutions, only Lamar Jackson (13) has more completions of 10 air yards or more against those coverages than Purdy's 11, while only Josh Allen (five) has more touchdown throws of 10 air yards or more against Cover 0 and Cover 1 than Purdy's four.
The 49ers' passing game is renowned for shredding zone coverage, and that reputation has only grown with Purdy at the helm. Man proved an unexpected kryptonite in the Super Bowl but, if Purdy can find more shot plays when the Chiefs press that button in this game, that would likely put the 49ers in a strong position to end their losing streak against Kansas City.
Taking away the easy explosives
The Kansas City passing game has struggled to produce explosive plays this season, recording just 14 plays of 20 yards or more, which is in part a reflection of the talent drain the Chiefs have suffered at wide receiver amid a string of injuries.
As such, Kansas City may well place emphasis on its rushing attack, which ranks third in the NFL with 51.3 percent of its runs resulting in positive Expected Points Added.
San Francisco's middling run defense, which was substantially better against the Seattle Seahawks last week, will need to maintain those strides, but the biggest area of concern for the 49ers may well be in a facet of the game that is regarded as an extension of the rushing attack.
Against the Seahawks, the 49ers gave up 63 yards on seven screen passes. In other words, nine yards per attempt.
The Chiefs are seventh in positive play rate (51.6%) on screen passes this season and rank third in SIS' points earned above average (5.66) on those plays. With speedster Xavier Worthy a clear potential asset on those plays, the 49ers must be on their guard to avoid giving Kansas City an easy route to the explosive plays that have continually eluded this offense in 2024.
Pearsall and Puni headline rookie watch
The feel-good story of the day, regardless of result, will be that of Pearsall finally making his NFL debut.
Pearsall could have a big say in the outcome if his offseason rapport with Purdy quickly translates into production in the biggest game of San Francisco's season.
However, the rookie with perhaps the most on his shoulders is perhaps right guard Dominick Puni, who will likely be consistently tasked with stopping All-Pro Chris Jones from derailing the 49ers' offense in key moments as he has done in each of Kansas City's two Super Bowl victories.
Puni has not allowed a sack this season and has expressed excitement at going up against a player of Jones' caliber. If the 49ers' dropback passing game is to function at the levels it has produced so far this season, Puni must rise to the almighty challenge Jones will provide in pass protection.
Fourth-round pick Malik Mustapha's second start at safety will test his seemingly outstanding instincts and his impressive physicality, with the Chiefs likely to attack the Niners with a run game that will include jet sweeps and zone read plays as well as a heavy dose of inside rushes.
But the biggest question surrounding an impressive 49ers rookie class concerns the usage of Isaac Guerendo and Renardo Green.
With Jordan Mason nursing an AC joint sprain, the Niners will surely have to give Guerendo a larger share of the workload after his 76-yard rush iced the game against Seattle.
Guerendo has displayed gradual improvement the more the Niners have worked him in, especially in his ability to pick up yards after contact, and the home-run hitter being a definitive and productive part of the ground game may carry underrated importance against a Chiefs defense ranked seventh by EPA per rush allowed.
Green, meanwhile, had a crucial interception versus Seattle and has proven extremely stingy in coverage in his time on the field, ranking sixth in EPA per target allowed among cornerbacks with at least 10 targets.
With former Chief Charvarius Ward set to return from injury, the 49ers must decide between Green and veteran Isaac Yiadom for the third corner spot. Yiadom, despite recent improvements, ranks 74th by EPA per target having regularly struggled to defend downfield plays.
Recent history says the Chiefs will struggle to produce those downfield plays, but they will be easier to come by if Patrick Mahomes identifies a defender on whom he can pick. In that sense, the decision between Green and Yiadom may come to define the game.
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