ESPN NFL insider predicts vastly different outlooks for Chiefs' top pending 2025 free agents

A pair of Kansas City Chiefs players are among ESPN's top 25 pending free agents in the NFL. Those two players have vastly different long-term outlooks on their chances of staying in Kansas City. ESPN NFL insider Jeremy Fowler and analyst Matt Bowen combined to name the NFL's top 25 pending free agents. Bowen provided analysis, […]

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Jul 26, 2024; Kansas City, MO, USA; Kansas City Chiefs guard Trey Smith (65) waves to fans while walking from the locker room to the fields prior to training camp at Missouri Western State University.
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A pair of Kansas City Chiefs players are among ESPN's top 25 pending free agents in the NFL. Those two players have vastly different long-term outlooks on their chances of staying in Kansas City.

ESPN NFL insider Jeremy Fowler and analyst Matt Bowen combined to name the NFL's top 25 pending free agents. Bowen provided analysis, while Fowler provided predictions rooted in sourced information for each player.

Trey Smith and Nick Bolton are the two Chiefs players who made the list. Will either pending free agent be back with Kansas City in 2025? According to Fowler, only one of the two players may return. Chiefs GM Brett Veach will have some tough work to do this offseason. 

Chiefs RG Trey Smith to become NFL's highest-paid guard

The Chiefs would love to re-sign Smith but know that will be tough. In fact, there's an expectation that Smith could become the highest-paid guard in the NFL. The top of the market currently sits at $21.5 million per year, and the Chiefs are at least bracing for life without him because of that price. Smith is a top-10 interior lineman in the league, and the Panthers giving Robert Hunt a $100 million free agency deal back in March had to get Smith's attention. – ESPN's Jeremy Fowler

It's no surprise to hear that Smith could become the NFL's highest-paid guard after the market exploded in 2024. It's also not unsurprising that the Chiefs could balk at the idea of handing out Smith that type of contract. We know that they love the player and the person, and Brett Veach has talked with his representation. However, Smith was already drafted well under slot given that he had a health condition coming out of college. It's unreasonable to expect he'd give Kansas City a major discount on his services when his contract comes to pass. It was also apparent in the 2024 NFL draft that Kansas City was preparing for life without Smith when they drafted Hunter Nourzad and C.J. Hanson. 


Kansas City could retain LB Nick Bolton if Smith walks

There's a path for Bolton to remain in Kansas City. The Chiefs linebacker is a team leader with great intangibles. Assuming the Chiefs can't front the bill on Trey Smith, they could instead allocate resources to retain Bolton, who is more affordable as an off-ball linebacker. Bolton can work off Patrick Queen's three-year, $41 million deal from March as a potential comp. His reps will speak to Kansas City some time after the season and see where it goes. – ESPN's Jeremy Fowler

Don't expect a midseason signing for Bolton, as he's already indicated his representation will talk shop with Kansas City after the 2024 NFL season. We know that Chiefs DC Steve Spagnuolo loves Nick Bolton and what he brings as a leader and defensive signal-caller. If they can find a way to keep him on a deal like Patrick Queen's, which currently ranks fifth in the league among linebackers in per-year average, that'd be reasonable compensation. The Chiefs might have to look elsewhere if Bolton looks to top the market, which is Ravens LB Roquan Smith's $20 million per year. A to Z Sports' Josh Quiepo and Kyle Dediminicantanio predict that Bolton will reset the market in a major way.