While there is understandably a lot of doom and gloom around the San Francisco 49ers following their surprise defeat to the Seattle Seahawks.

The Niners are now 5-5 with diminishing playoff hopes and optimism, at least outside the organization, that they can beat the Green Bay Packers on the road and get back on track in short supply.

For all the scrutiny on the 49ers after they let another fourth-quarter lead slip in Week 11, there are still positives around this team, one of which is a key improvement in an area that had been considered a weakness since the stretch run of last season.

San Francisco's run defense was very vulnerable in the final weeks of the 2023 campaign and in the playoffs before it stiffened in the Super Bowl. The 49ers' struggles in that area have largely continued in 2024, with San Francisco ranking 20th in Expected Points Added per play and 22nd in success rate against the run.

But the last three games have seen clear strides made by the 49ers in defending the ground game. They gave up 94 yards against Seattle, including Geno Smith's 13-yard game-winning touchdown scramble, but allowed only 57 yards on designed hand-offs to running backs.

That effort followed strong showings in wins over the Dallas Cowboys and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. San Francisco conceded just 56 rush yards to the Cowboys and, though they gave up 110 to the Buccaneers, 36 of those yards came on three Bucky Irving carries. On their other 24 rush attempts, the Buccaneers averaged just 3.08 yards.

Irving found his way to explosive runs against the 49er defense, but in recent weeks that has not been the trend.

The 49ers have ranked 13th in EPA per play against the rush since Week 8. In that time, they have allowed just 3.6 yards (eighth-fewest) per carry and 75.7 yards per game (sixth-fewest) to non-quarterback runs, per Sports Info Solutions.

If San Francisco can maintain this uptick against the Packers, it would potentially put the defense in excellent shape given the 49ers' pass defense has been one of the best in the NFL this season, ranking third in DVOA, per FTN Fantasy.

The problem is that Green Bay's rushing offense is one of the most explosive in the NFL, ranking 10th in EPA per play. Green Bay is 20th in success rate on the ground, pointing to a rushing attack that doesn't regularly get the yards required but often breaks long ones when it does so.

San Francisco may have improved stopping the run since Week 8, but, over the same span, no team has got more efficient production out of its running backs than Green Bay.

Indeed, excluding quarterback runs, the Packers have averaged 124 yards per game in that time. They are tied for the league lead in EPA per attempt on non-QB rushes since Week 8, with those runs producing positive EPA 51.9 percent of the time, the highest rate in the NFL.

The 49ers look to be in the process of gradually turning a weakness back into something resembling a strength. However, the Packers' Josh Jacobs-led ground game clearly has the potential to undo the Niners' recent good work against the run. In a matchup that has huge implications for the 49ers' playoff hopes, they must prevent Green Bay doing so.

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