The Green Bay Packers might not have played their best ball this season, but the playoff picture is extremely friendly to them. After beating the Chicago Bears on Sunday with a blocked field goal, the Packers went from 69% to 83% in their playoff chances according to the New York Times model.

The NFC North is wild, and three of the four teams are somewhat close to making it to the postseason. The Detroit Lions have more than 99% chances, the Minnesota Vikings are at 95%, and the Packers are at 83%. All of them won in Week 11. The exception is the Chicago Bears, who are virtually eliminated with less than 1% of a chance.

According to the model, the Packers have only a 2% chance of winning the division, and the other 83% is of being a wild card team.

And that will be a real fight over the next few weeks.

Considering the Philadelphia Eagles and the Arizona Cardinals will win their respective divisions, this is how the race is:

• Minnesota Vikings 95%
• Washington Commanders 91%
• Green Bay Packers 83%
• Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25%
• San Francisco 49ers 23%
• Los Angeles Rams 21%
• Seattle Seahawks 15%

I used ESPN's playoff machine to project how it will end. And if the Packers finish 11-6 (beating the Miami Dolphins, Seattle Seahawks, New Orleans Saints and Chicago Bears; and losing to the San Francisco 49ers, Detroit Lions, Minnesota Vikings), they get the seventh seed, but the key game will be in Week 17, between the Lions and the 49ers. If the 49ers win this one, counting the head-to-head win over Green Bay, they get the seventh seed instead — or the Packers will have to beat one of the three toughest opponents.

Sure, it's just a simulation and it's hard for an 11-6 team to be out of the playoffs in reality. But the race will be insane.

Since the NFL added a seventh seed in the playoffs, only one 10-win team (the 2020 Miami Dolphins) missed the playoffs, and that might very well happen in the NFC this year.

ESPN's playoff predictor is slightly more favorable for the Packers. It puts them with an 89% chance of making the playoffs, including a 5% chance of winning the NFC North.

Huge game

The 49ers are 5-5, but they are a good team and are still pretty much in playoff contention. That's why Sunday's game at Lambeau Field is so huge.

If the Packers win, their playoff chances go to 94% according to The New York Times. A loss, though, would drop their chances to 71% — putting the 49ers right back into the wild card race.

It's going to be some intense weeks, and there's little margin for error left.

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