49ers have everything they need to put a pair of false narratives to bed in another all or nothing season
It would be wrong to say the San Francisco 49ers have enjoyed ideal preparation for their latest Super Bowl push. San Francisco enters another year still trying to get over the hump and win the franchise's sixth Lombardi Trophy following an agonizing overtime defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 58 in February. […]
It would be wrong to say the San Francisco 49ers have enjoyed ideal preparation for their latest Super Bowl push.
San Francisco enters another year still trying to get over the hump and win the franchise's sixth Lombardi Trophy following an agonizing overtime defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl 58 in February.
The Niners have had a long time to stew over that loss, but the headlines this offseason weren't dominated by their efforts to put that agony behind them, but instead by contract issues surrounding two players critical to their hopes of getting back to the grandest stage.
San Francisco's stand-offs with All-Pro wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and All-Pro left tackle Trent Williams were resolved within five days of each other, giving two crucial components of the 49er offense just a week to prepare for the season opener with the New York Jets on Monday Night Football.
The 49ers must learn lessons from how long it took to find a resolution to both matters, but the reality is that, with Aiyuk and Williams in the building with their contract demands met, the Niners are perfectly set up to dispel a pair of narratives in the 2024 campaign.
The hangover fallacy
It wouldn't be a surprise, given the lack of time Aiyuk, Williams and Offensive Player of the Year Christian McCaffrey, who this week returned from a calf injury, have had to prepare for the opener, if the 49ers come out a little rusty against the Jets.
Week 1 can be weird enough as it is without throwing the race against the clock for Aiyuk and Williams into the mix, but any struggles for the 49ers shouldn't be construed as a 'Super Bowl hangover', something FTN Fantasy's Aaron Schatz indicated is a fallacy.
"I think plenty of teams have been good in the year after losing the Super Bowl in recent years that there really isn't a Super Bowl hangover," Schatz told A to Z Sports.
"The Patriots lost the Super Bowl to the Eagles and won the Super Bowl the next year. Unless there's just a parade of injuries. I think the 49ers are going to be one of the best teams in the league. I mean, I think they're their most likely team to win to win at all this year."
The 49ers have prior experience of the parade of injuries, with their dismal luck in that regard in 2020 seeing a team that lost narrowly to the Chiefs in the previous season's Super Bowl slump to a 6-10 record.
Barring that happening again, there is little denying the 49ers have a roster perfectly set up to prove the hangover to be a myth once again.
This is, for the most part, the same team that was first in offensive DVOA and fourth in defensive DVOA in 2023, with Williams' return ensuring the 49ers will have a cheat code at left tackle on their side along with a receiver in Aiyuk who was by far the most efficient in the NFL by DVOA (45%), per FTN. The fact his closest challengers in that metric were teammates George Kittle (38.6%) and McCaffrey (38%) illustrate the incredible wealth of options quarterback Brock Purdy has at his disposal.
On defense, All-Pro linebacker Fred Warner will hope for better communication with new coordinator Nick Sorensen than he enjoyed with Steve Wilks and, while there might be some expectation of a drop-off at the second level with Dre Greenlaw still sidelined by his Super Bowl Achilles injury, a revamped defensive front and the best and deepest secondary the 49ers have had in the Kyle Shanahan era should mitigate that.
San Francisco's depth on defense and Purdy's support system have both been swelled by a rookie class that can help the 49ers silence those who suggest they may be approaching the cliff edge.
A wide-open window
A common refrain among NFL analysts of late has been that the 49ers "Super Bowl window is closing".
It is a view born of expected struggles to keep the team together in a 2025 offseason in which the 49ers will likely need to make Purdy one of the highest-paid players in the NFL, with the assertion of a window coming to an end repeated regularly in the wake of the Aiyuk extension and the reworked Williams deal.
But that claim ignores the facts of the situation. Aiyuk is guaranteed $47 million between now and April 1, but he doesn't have a cap hit over $20 million until 2027.
And, with the end of those staring contests followed by restructures for Deebo Samuel and Maliek Collins, the 49ers' salary cap is in a very healthy situation. Per Over The Cap, the 49ers have the second-most cap space in the league at a little over $45 million.
With cap space carried over to next year, the Niners are in a better spot to keep the team together in 2025 than people realize. The 49ers' roster is expensive and it remaining the best in the league may hinge on owner Jed York's willingness to continue to pay guaranteed money up front, but with an ascending quarterback surrounded by a host of weapons, several of whom are under contract for the long term, there's no reason to expect a dramatic post-2024 decline even if some members of the core depart next year.
The one player who is arguably most important to the 49ers' window staying open is Williams. Since 2021, the 49ers are 32-12 in the regular season in games started by the game's best left tackle. In the seven games for which he was inactive, they are 3-4.
Williams has spoken openly about wanting to play into his 40s and hold off Father Time. As long as he continues to perform at the Hall of Fame standard that has defined his career, the 49ers' window should be considered open.
Still, the 49ers would eventually benefit from finding his successor, and they went into this offseason knowing they needed to find some younger contributors in the draft.
While first-round receiver Ricky Pearsall might not see the field for some time after being shot in an attempted robbery last weekend, the returns on the draft class so far are encouraging.
Third-rounder Dominick Puni is poised to start at right guard, and second-round corner Renardo Green could play significant snaps as a rookie. With fourth-rounders Jacob Cowing, Malik Mustapha and Isaac Guerendo all flashing enticing upside in preseason that suggests they can be contributors this season and in the years to come, this year's crop of rookie appears primed to give the roster a much-needed refresh and play a significant role in keeping the window ajar.
A difficult potential matchup
Right now, the 49ers won't be at all worried about extending their window. The focus is entirely on getting over the line after February's gut punch.
The 49ers have a lot of obstacles to overcome to get anywhere close to doing just that.
It would be a tremendous boost to confidence and morale if they can overcome the scar tissue they have from the Super Bowl losses to Kansas City by proving to themselves they can beat Mahomes and Co. in Week 7, but Schatz expects the likeliest Super Bowl matchup to pit the Niners against another team that has consistently given them issues.
"Baltimore and San Francisco were the two best teams in the league in the regular season last year by a lot," said Schatz.
"They have the best chance to win this year. Because if you think of things rolling over from last year to this year, you have to expect that they're not going to be as good as last year but that they're going to be pretty good."
The Ravens beat San Francisco last season on Christmas Day last season and again have the ingredients to prove a terrible matchup for the 49ers once more. Though Mike MacDonald is gone, new coordinator Zach Orr will likely run much the same defense, while the 49ers have rarely shown much proficiency for defending dual-threat quarterbacks, of which Lamar Jackson is the zenith.
San Francisco will get practice in facing the MacDonald system twice a year after he was hired as the head coach by the Seattle Seahawks. Those tests would likely be very useful experiences ahead of any potential Super Bowl matchup with the Ravens, but of more import for another prospective deep playoff run is the 49ers' ability to fix the failing Baltimore would undoubtedly look to exploit.
The 49er run defense fell apart across the final five weeks of the season and their first two playoff games before course correcting in the Super Bowl. San Francisco's positive play rate allowed of 49.7% was the highest of any playoff team in that span and the third-highest in the NFL. The Niners allowed the highest yards after contact per attempt (3.3) in that time, per Sports Info Solutions.
San Francisco's defense declined in a previous area of strength at a point in the NFL's cyclical history where the run game is regaining prominence. There are other holes, most notably on the offensive line, but the 49ers are a team with everything they need to contend for the Super Bowl this year and in years to come.
However, they were fortunate to overcome their run defense struggles in the postseason last term, and the Niners will risk coming up short again and prompting more talk of a closing window if they can't fix 2023's surprise issue.
Trent Williams declares 49ers rookie a steal before he’s even played a regular-season game
High praise to live up to.
