The consensus over the last few weeks has been that Alabama, Georgia, and Texas are the three teams to beat for 2023 five-star quarterback Arch Manning.

Manning, 6-foot-4/215 lbs from New Orleans, LA, is ranked in 247Sports' composite rankings as the No. 1 overall player in the 2023 recruiting class.

The nephew of two former Super Bowl MVPs (Peyton and Eli Manning) is the most-hyped recruit in the nation, thanks to his elite skills and his famous football pedigree.

Manning has kept things close to the vest during his recruitment, but his love for Texas and Georgia has been evident throughout the process. My read on Manning's recruitment is that he loves the vibe in Athens, but he feels the most comfortable with Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian.

Alabama is still in the mix, but after receiving a commitment from 2023 four-star quarterback Eli Holstein last month, it feels like the Crimson Tide could be fading in the race for Arch.

Florida, LSU, and Ole Miss are still hanging around in the battle for Arch, but it would be a surprise at this point if the highly-coveted recruit committed to any of those three programs.

Georgia or Texas are the most likely destinations for Manning. But there's another program that could be a darkhorse contender to land the talented quarterback.

I don't think we can rule out Arch shocking everyone and choosing Virginia over Georgia and Texas.

Yes, you read that right — I think the Virginia Cavaliers could potentially pull off the shocker of the decade and land the best recruit in the nation.

Arch has deep family connections to Virginia. His mother went to school in Charlottesville and his sister is currently a student at Virginia (his aunt, Peyton's wife, also went to Virginia).

I don't think Manning loves the offense that Kirby Smart and his staff run at Georgia. It obviously works for the Bulldogs — they're the defending national champions. But it's not an offense that truly lets a quarterback shine. It's a run-heavy offense that requires more of a game-manager at quarterback instead of a superstar.

The Texas offense under Sarkisian is probably a better fit for Manning. But if Sarkisian struggles in year two (he went 5-7 in his first year as the program's head coach), it could change Manning's perception of the Longhorns (another losing year could also cost Sarkisian his job).

Virginia could be an interesting option for Manning. It's a place where Manning could be cut loose and truly excel. Cavaliers head coach Tony Elliott was Dabo Swinney's offensive coordinator at Clemson for seven years. With Elliott running the offense, the Tigers won two national championships. Clemson also had two quarterbacks selected in the first round during that time period (Deshaun Watson at No. 12 overall in the 2017 NFL Draft and Trevor Lawrence at No. 1 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft).

Manning's ultimate goal is to reach the NFL. He could probably accomplish that at any school from Louisiana-Monroe to Alabama. Manning has the type of skills that will show up in a big way regardless of the size of the program. It's not like his future is dependent on going to a program like Alabama or Georgia. He has the luxury to choose a school for reasons like the atmosphere of the town around a program.

The Manning family is known for surprising folks and going down unexpected roads (like Peyton going to Tennessee). It wouldn't be totally shocking to see Manning go against the grain and choose Virginia over some of the big-name schools that have been fighting for Arch over the last couple of years.

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