Recent NFL news could cost a couple of Chiefs players millions
One of the best parts of the NFL's regular season is dissecting the Pro Bowl rosters once they're complete. And sure enough, there's plenty of room for debate after the league released the final results on Wednesday. For the Kansas City Chiefs, one can easily make a fair argument that two players, starting guard Trey […]
One of the best parts of the NFL's regular season is dissecting the Pro Bowl rosters once they're complete.
And sure enough, there's plenty of room for debate after the league released the final results on Wednesday.
For the Kansas City Chiefs, one can easily make a fair argument that two players, starting guard Trey Smith and starting linebacker Nick Bolton, were snubbed in 2022.
It starts with Bolton, who finished as the the AFC's top vote-getter at linebacker when the final fan polls came out. For those unaware, original Pro Bowl selections are formulated through thirds: 1/3 of the votes are fan votes, 1/3 are player votes, and 1/3 are coaches' votes.
So, in a strange turn of events, Bolton didn't make the final cut despite leading the fan vote.
It's not just the fan vote that stings, either. Bolton's production is very similar -and in some cases, better- to that of the AFC's official selections in Roquan Smith and C.J. Mosley.
Bolton currently has the sixth-most combined tackles in the NFL at 137, which is just five less than the fourth-place Mosley and seven more than the seventh-place Smith. He is also third in the NFL when it comes to solo tackles (88), which is more than both Smith and Mosley. Bolton's nine tackles for loss also matches Smith's own nine TFLs, which is eighth-best among off-ball linebackers.
And, Bolton's seven QB hits easily eclipse Mosley's two and Smith's four.
The same goes for Smith. When looking at the overall numbers, it's easy to see why one can make the case that he should've made the roster instead of Quenton Nelson.
I realize that sounds insane. Especially when considering Nelson's reputation. But that's strictly what got Nelson into the Pro Bowl in 2022: his reputation.
Nelson hasn't had the best 2022 season. In fact, it's been so up-and-down that ESPN recently named him as one of five players on the decline.
Smith, on the other hand, is nowhere near that realm of discussion. Per Pro Football Focus, Smith's overall blocking grade of 74.3 is a career-best and it's good for the seventh-best grade among all guards with at least 589 blocking snaps on the year (50 qualifying players).
While grades certainly aren't the end-all-be-all, Smith's grade is much better than Nelson's current grade of 68.6, which lands him at No. 18 on the aforementioned list. Smith has also allowed fewer sacks than Nelson (2 to 3), has a better overall run blocking grade (75.0 to 64.8), and his pass pro grade in a true pass set isn't too far off from Nelson's (62.3 to 64.4).
As a matter of fact, Smith has allowed fewer total pressures when in a true pass set (16) than Nelson (21) and his allowed pressure rate of 2.7% is better than Nelson's 3.4% rate.
A Pro Bowl snub is never fun, but what hurts the most is Bolton's and Smith's snub could end up costing them millions of dollars in 2024.
This is because of the NFL's Proven Performance Escalator system. The PPE system is "a fourth-year salary escalator for players on drafted rookie contracts not drafted in the first round", per Over The Cap.
There are three tiers that dictate whether or not players get a raise and it's the Level Three tier that states any Pro Bowl selection (alternates not included) will see their fourth-year salary escalate to the equivalent of a second-round restricted free agent tender.
Over The Cap currently doesn't have tender projections for 2024, but we can use the example of Jalen Hurts to get a good idea of how much more Bolton and Smith could've made if they didn't get snubbed.
Hurts is currently set to make a little more than $1.33 million in 2023, but now, he's slated to make a little more than $4.3 million thanks to his Pro Bowl nod.
That's almost a salary bump of $3 million – which is obviously not small, at all. Hurts was in line to receive a Level One pay raise, but even then, the Level Three raise is a difference of $1.7 million, which is obviously still a significant raise.
The good news is that Bolton and Smith are currently on track for a Level Two raise and they could always make the Pro Bowl in 2023. But as we all know, nothing is guaranteed in the NFL. Both players are constantly playing under the threat of injury and one unfortunate stroke of bad luck could completely ruin any chance of even getting to a Level One raise. Depending on the severity of the injury, of course.
A Pro Bowl nod in 2022 would've wiped out any potential raise concerns for 2024. But, alas, here we are.
While these two snubs could hurt these guys' pockets, the journey is far from over. In fact, it could play big role in driving them to be even better in 2023 and beyond.
And that is something I think Chiefs fans can easily get on board with.
Featured image via Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports