Super Bowl LVIII is finally here! That means everything you could possibly imagine is available for betting. From Taylor Swift lipstick color, to the duration of the National Anthem, to halftime playlists there seems to be a bet for everything. However, the best way to actually make money on the Super Bowl can often be playing it simple and smart, identifying the few player prop bets that offer the most glaring value.

That's what we're going to tackle today. There are definitely dozens of decent player prop bets still available, but these three San Francisco options stand out as particularly valuable given the matchups and probabilities implied. No bet is a sure thing, but we hope these props provide some good luck as you root for them to bring you home some extra green on Super Bowl Sunday.

Deebo Samuel Under 16.5 Rushing Yards (-105 best odds)

This prop is perhaps the most obvious value on the entire slate. Deebo Samuel has eclipsed 16.5 rushing yards just once in the last seven weeks. Every other game in that span he accumulated 11 or fewer rushing yards.

He has zero games with more than three carries since November 23rd. The best odds out there imply a 51.2% chance that he goes under a yardage mark he's crossed in just 5 of his 17 games this year. This over/under just seems off.

Yes, he had a fantastic 2021 season where he actually rushed the ball 60% more than he did in 2023, but that Deebo is clearly long gone.

Plus, the screen game will likely be used a ton when the Chiefs go with Cover 2 Man defense (which they do a lot). That means a healthy helping of quick-hitting short target potential, but not runs this game.

Christian McCaffrey Over 89.5 Rushing Yards (-110 best odds)

First off, I don't often recommend betting overs on props (nearly at all). Having worked for a sports book, reverse engineering true probabilities for every major book in the industry, it's clear that the vig is shaded to the over a majority of the time (meaning best bets for users are quite often on the under).

But! It's Christian McCaffrey. He's eclipsed 90 rushing yards in seven of his last eight games. The Chiefs are 28th in EPA allowed per rush on the season, and the 49ers are league best in rush efficiency.

The Chiefs have essentially allowed over 89.5 rushing yards to every single team with any semblance of a running game all year long. The only exceptions came when teams (like the Ravens in the AFC Championship game) completely abandoned the run entirely. This one will be popular, so enjoy the ride with your friends.

Brandon Aiyuk Anytime TD (+180 best odds)

This one is less obvious, and is more of a play against a poorly built probability distribution by most sports books for this particular matchup.

Simply put, Brandon Aiyuk wins exactly where the Chiefs struggle. Aiyuk has scored five of his seven touchdowns in the intermediate-deep middle portions of the field this year. 595 of his yards have come there as well.

The Chiefs play a ton of Cover 2 and Cover 2 Man concepts. And while some teams struggle outside the hashmarks in those concepts, the Chiefs are actually 28th in EPA allowed in the deep middle portion of the field (according to Sumer Sports). That could mean great things for Aiyuk.

The 49ers have been consistently performed Top 5 in the league against both Cover 2 and Cover 2 man defenses, beating teams primarily deep over the middle and on quick screens. That could result in the perfect opportunity to set up a deep shot to Aiyuk.

At +180 we're looking at a 35.7% implied probability as the best odds available. Given most books will easily put between 3-5% probability's worth of vig in their favor on each side, they're telling us that their in-house true touchdown probability models for Aiyuk live around 30% this week.

Aiyuk has scored a touchdown in 39% of his games and faces a very specifically favorable matchup this week to boost his touchdown chances. If you're looking for significant plus money opportunity with high likelihood of success this is probably the best bet out there.

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Nothing is truly a safe bet, and you should only wager money you can afford to lose, but best of luck to you all in your Super Bowl betting endeavors!