Brock Purdy's key strength and 49ers' supposed weak link come into focus in NFC Championship Game
Brock Purdy is under a huge amount of pressure going into the NFC Championship Game as he looks to help guide the San Francisco 49ers to the Super Bowl. Key to the Niners' hopes of getting over the hump after successive losses at this stage in the last two seasons will be ensuring that their […]
Brock Purdy is under a huge amount of pressure going into the NFC Championship Game as he looks to help guide the San Francisco 49ers to the Super Bowl.
Key to the Niners' hopes of getting over the hump after successive losses at this stage in the last two seasons will be ensuring that their quarterback is not under consistent duress once the game with the Detroit Lions gets underway.
Purdy is coming off a divisional round performance in which he struggled in a narrow win over the Green Bay Packers. The Niners' signal-caller was frequently under pressure in that encounter and struggled to deliver accurately as the Packers' interior rush consistently took away room for him to throw from a stable platform and step into his attempts.
On his final drive, Purdy found his rhythm, going six of seven on a series capped by a Christian McCaffrey touchdown run as the 49ers escaped with a 24-21 victory.
In terms of pass rush, the challenge gets no easier this week. The Lions' front is not of the same caliber as that of Green Bay, but it does possess a stud defensive end in former second overall pick Aidan Hutchinson, who has a potential mismatch in his favor against 49ers right tackle Colton McKivitz.
Yet, even with Hutchinson going against the apparent weak link on the offensive line and Purdy facing an ultra aggressive Detroit defense, there is reason for confidence he and the 49ers can negate the pressure the Lions bring and ensure it does not derail San Francisco's ambitions of representing the NFC in Super Bowl 58.
McKivitz's under-appreciated success
Such confidence comes in part from McKivitz himself.
McKivitz drew a tough matchup last week, going up against the Packers' star edge rusher Rashan Gary.
While he gave up five pressures, McKivitz held his own in the matchup a lot better than many might have anticipated, often keeping Gary at bay not just when receiving chip help from tight ends and running backs, but also when asked to hold up in one-on-one pass protection.
McKivitz's success in that regard is reflected by Gary's pass rush efficiency numbers. Gary lined up across from McKivitz on 38 of his 42 snaps, but his pass rush win rate was just 13.8 percent, per Pro Football Focus, well down on his regular season rate of 17.2 percent.
Still, a matchup with Hutchinson, who was second in the NFL in pressures in the regular season with 101, represents a significant challenge for McKivitz, though much of the threat to Purdy will likely come through a specific part of the Lions' gameplan rather than Hutchinson's individual abilities as a rusher.
Destructive DBs
The Lions found significant joy in the divisional round win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers with the blitz and, specifically, with blitzes involving a defensive back.
Since Week 10, the Lions rank second with a pressure rate of 43 percent, but have blitzed 35.2 percent of the time to rack up that pressure, per Sumer Sports (h/t Akash Anavarathan).
Against the Buccaneers, the Lions sent a defensive back on a blitz on 12 plays, per TruMedia (h/t Dan Pizzuta), with Tampa Bay averaging just 3.3 yards per play on those snaps. Detroit's defensive success rate on those plays was 69 percent.
That came against a quarterback in Baker Mayfield who in the regular season ranked first in Expected Points Added per play on snaps where the opponent used a defensive back as a pass rusher.
Purdy was seventh by the same measure on those plays by comparison, but attacking the blitz was one of his chief strong suits in the regular season.
Indeed, Purdy ranked first in EPA per pass attempt (0.35), first in success rate (54%) and first in yards per attempt (10) against the blitz in the regular season.
In other words, it's unlikely the Lions were consistently throw the blitz at Purdy, knowing that is a recipe for disaster given their struggles in the secondary.
Having the right plan
Instead, the 49ers should expect sporadic blitzes targeted at the right side of the line involving a defensive back and Hutchinson that put McKivitz in conflict and expose his vulnerabilities to speed up Purdy's process and take pressure off the Detroit defensive backfield.
For Purdy, the most dangerous element of a potentially aggressive approach from the Lions is how Detroit may look to dress up their blitzes.
Said Purdy:
“They do a good job of sort of holding it and disguising it. There’s a lot of looks where it looks like it’s just a base coverage and all of a sudden they’re bringing guys from different directions. And when they do blitz, they have certain coverages that are behind their blitzes, but like I said, they do a good job with bringing different guys and sort of holding their water and not showing it. So, I think that’s the difference. Across the year, other teams will sort of have some tips and clues and stuff, but I think these guys do a pretty good job of switching it up and making it hard for the quarterback to recognize it. So, it’ll be a good challenge.”
Asked why he and the offense have done so well against the blitz in 2023, Purdy replied: "I feel like we usually go into it having a good plan. And so the minute they do it, and if we’re on it I think it’s sort of like a high-risk, high-reward kind of thing for both sides.
"If we’re ready and have a good plan for it, all it takes is a five-yard throw or something and we can turn it into a big gain. They’re a couple guys short.
"So, we’ve gone into games where defenses that blitz a lot, we usually have a good plan for it, but that’s just the receivers and myself being on top of it. And when they give us those opportunities, we have to be ready for it and if we’re not ready for it, then we can get exposed."
The 49ers' offense was nearly exposed last week by the Packers before finding its groove on the final drive. With San Francisco now just a win away from the Super Bowl, the plan and Purdy's performance against the blitz must be on point. If McKivitz can hold up against Hutchinson, that would be a huge and potentially pivotal bonus.
