Packers-49ers matchup preview: How can Green Bay pull off the upset?
The Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers are both much different than the versions that faced off the last time, in the 2021 postseason. Therefore, a new playoff matchup will present new challenges and opportunities for both sides. The head coaches are the same, Matt LaFleur and Kyle Shanahan, but Jordan Love and […]
The Green Bay Packers and the San Francisco 49ers are both much different than the versions that faced off the last time, in the 2021 postseason. Therefore, a new playoff matchup will present new challenges and opportunities for both sides.
The head coaches are the same, Matt LaFleur and Kyle Shanahan, but Jordan Love and Brock Purdy enter the fold alongside several offensive pieces on both rosters.
To preview the game, nothing better than an analyst who knows both teams really well. Rich Madrid covers the Packers for Acme Packing Company, and the 49ers for Niners Nation and 49ers All22.
So, I asked Rich five big matchup questions about the divisional round game. Let’s jump right into it.
What has to happen for the Packers to have a real shot?
On defense, make Brock Purdy uncomfortable in the pocket and make him throw past his first read. The deeper he gets into the progression, the more hesitant he gets and the more his passes tend to go off target.
Baltimore played predominantly cover-6/quarters coverage against the 49ers and were able to sit and in the throwing windows he likes, which was a big factor in three of his four interceptions. Purdy’s worst passing efficiency came against cover-6 (cover-2 the run strength/quarters coverage to the pass strength) and the Packers defense best pass snaps occur when they play cover-6 or cover-8 (reverse cover-6).
How much is it Brock Purdy and how much is it everyone else?
It’s the perfect complement of both. Purdy is undoubtedly getting a boost from the skill talent around him, but the 49ers offense is also getting a boost from him in his willingness to take downfield throws. He’s excelling where Jimmy Garoppolo just couldn’t: in deep passing.
Per Pro Football Focus (PFF), Purdy leads the NFL in passing grade on deep throws of 20+ air yards and is ranked 7th in big-time throw rate at that distance. He’s 5th overall in big-time throws, is 2nd in completed air yards per pass (per NFL NextGenStats), and leads the league in EPA/play (per RBSDM).
His ability to create out of structure has also been a breath of fresh air and he’s ranked 7th in graded throws outside the pocket where Garoppolo never cracked the top 15 (play action excluded).
What is the 49ers biggest issues on defense?
The 49ers defense has weaknesses, primarily in the secondary, and that’s where Jordan Love and the offense is at its best right now. I would expect them to test the weaker parts of the secondary (really anyone not named Charvarius Ward), because the 49ers just have not had consistency there.
They’ve also had trouble defending screen passes and LaFleur has leaned on those heavily this season. Overall, the team has been very poor at tackling, missing 132 tackles this season, with Fred Warner missing 24 of those.
Upfront, the 49ers defensive line controls their destiny and everyone is healthy with Arik Armstead coming back. If they can’t pressure Love, then it might be a long day.
What will Kyle Shanahan try to exploit on Joe Barry’s defense?
For Packers personnel, he’s going to more than likely put Quay Walker and De’Vondre Campbell under the microscope (provided Campbell plays), because he likes to isolate the weaknesses of the opposing team’s defense.
Against Barry’s scheme, he’ll likely get matchups that put someone like Preston Smith in conflict. That means in the pass game he’ll likely find ways to isolate Deebo or McCaffrey on Smith in the slot if the Packers go with their 3-3-5 defense.
If the Packers go with their nickel 2-4-5 defense, then Shanahan will pick that part in the run game by going right at those other linebackers up the middle. He’ll have answers for all of it.
Who is one 49ers player the average Packers fan doesn’t know but should for Saturday?
That would be Jauan Jennings, the 49ers #3 wide receiver. He’s not a downfield threat or even a guy who creates space in the short and intermediate areas of the field.
Rather, he’s one of their primary third down targets and will make difficult catches over the middle or can turn a 1-yard catch on 3rd and long into a first down. And he’s also used like a fullback in the run game, often asked to make key blocks at the point of attack when the 49ers want to run the ball out of 11 personnel.
The thing he lacks is speed, but he makes up for by being the toughest guy on the field.
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