Six matchups that could decide the 49ers' divisional round game with the Packers

The San Francisco 49ers are the overwhelming favorites to win their divisional round clash with the Green Bay Packers. However, as the Packers proved with their shock wild-card round win over the Dallas Cowboys, such tags count for nothing on the field in the postseason, and the Niners can take nothing for granted as they […]

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Dec 10, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) throws a pass against the Seattle Seahawks in the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium.
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco 49ers are the overwhelming favorites to win their divisional round clash with the Green Bay Packers. However, as the Packers proved with their shock wild-card round win over the Dallas Cowboys, such tags count for nothing on the field in the postseason, and the Niners can take nothing for granted as they aim to take the next step towards the Super Bowl.

The vast majority of the edges are firmly in San Francisco’s favor, but so often games are decided by the granular details and individual battles in certain areas of the field.

San Francisco has a major talent and experience advantage in this encounter, but the Niners need to win the majority of these matchups to ensure the game goes as most anticipate and they progress to the NFC Championship Game.

Brock Purdy vs. Darnell Savage

The Packers' upturn in play in the secondary in recent weeks is tied to the return of Darnell Savage, his pre-snap communication abilities and his instincts in coverage.

It was the latter that shone through in the wild-card round on his pick-six of Dak Prescott that put the Packers up 27-0, as he read the Dallas quarterback's eyes perfectly on a triple slants concept and intercepted the pass for an easy house call.

Brock Purdy's last outing on the primetime stage saw him throw four interceptions, one of which came on a superb play from Ravens safety from Kyle Hamilton to pick off a throw to Deebo Samuel in the endzone.

It was a rare poor decision from Purdy, who is highly regarded as a processor. With Savage looming as a threat to create the turnovers that could be an equalizer in the game, the 49ers' signal-caller's field vision must be on point for San Francisco to avoid a stunning defeat.

Brandon Aiyuk vs. Jaire Alexander

It would be easy to pinpoint Christian McCaffrey vs. the Green Bay linebackers, or George Kittle vs. the Green Bay linebackers, or simply Kyle Shanahan vs. the Packers linebackers.

But simply put, the overwhelming likelihood is that the Niners will dominate those matchup. For as much as the 49ers will want to spam throws to McCaffrey, Kittle and Co. over the middle, they can't go the whole game without threatening downfield and to the outside, and many of their shots in those areas will target Aiyuk.

After missing out on Pro Bowl selection, Aiyuk was named second-team All-Pro after a campaign in which he racked up 1,342 receiving yards and seven touchdowns.

Discussing Aiyuk's selection, Shanahan said on Friday:

“I was so happy for B.A. because I know how disappointed he was that he didn’t get Pro Bowl or the First-Team. There’s so many good players who haven’t made it and then there’s some guys in years that shouldn’t have who do. Most of the time they get it right. But it’s such a big deal when it’s said and done. When you’re done playing, all you guys talk about are people’s careers, not just you guys, me, everybody. It’s how many Pro Bowls? How many All-Pros? How many playoff wins? How many Super Bowl wins? All that stuff. When it comes to voting and stuff, I feel for those guys because it is a big deal. But just because they don’t make it doesn’t mean you weren’t one of the best players in the league. The All-Pro is the real one. I was just so happy he got that because he definitely deserved both. I think he’ll get it next year too because of it."

Aiyuk has the chance to prove his status as one of the best players in the NFL on a massive primetime playoff stage, but he may have a tough task against Green Bay cornerback Jaire Alexander, whose interception against Dallas was a spectacular reminder of his talents. 

Alexander, however, missed the Packers' last two practices with shoulder and ankle issues. The Niners' offense could enjoy a hugely prolific day if Aiyuk can take advantage of a hobbled Alexander.

Colton McKivitz vs. Rashan Gary

The 49ers' interior offensive line has had its ups and downs this year, but the weak link up front is right tackle Colton McKivitz, who will have his hands full in a matchup with Green Bay's best pass rusher.

Rashan Gary registered nine sacks and 22 quarterback hits on the regular season and, in McKivitz, is going against a starting right tackle who has allowed a team-high 47 pressures.

McKivitz will likely get significant chip help from tight ends and running backs, but there will be instances where he will be asked to hold up in one on one pass protection against Gary and — though Brock Purdy is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL against pressure — it is imperative he does so to prevent Gary from wrecking San Francisco’s offensive plans. 

Chase Young vs. Rasheed Walker

With Clelin Ferrell out with a knee injury, Chase Young, the 49ers' blockbuster trade deadline acquisition is in line for a greatly increased role.

The former second overall pick has, per Pro Football Focus, racked up 28 pressures and four sacks since joining the 49ers while operating in a rotational role. The ability to make a game-changing impact on the postseason stage is exactly why the 49ers acquired Young, who will seemingly have a matchup stacked hugely in his favor if he does indeed get the start.

With Nick Bosa spending the majority of his time at the left defensive end spot, Young will likely play on the right, putting him against former seventh-round pick Rasheed Walker. 

However, Walker did not give up a pressure against Young, so a dominant performance from Young is far from a given, especially against a quarterback in Jordan Love who has proven adept at avoiding the rush.

Still, this is a matchup in which the 49ers will expect Young to display the pedigree that saw him selected second overall in 2020 and win Defensive Rookie of the Year.

That challenge extends to the run game, with defensive coordinator Steve Wilks laying out the task on Wednesday.

Talking about stopping Packers running back Aaron Jones, Wilks said:

"He’s real good. He runs behind his pads. He can run in between the tackles. He can really jump set and get the ball to the perimeter of the defense. That’s point of emphasis each and every week, but particularly this week as well, we’ve got to do a great job setting edges. I think, again, running behind his pads, he does a hell of job in really making the first guy miss after contact. So, we’ve got to do a great job with 11 guys swarming and getting to the ball."

Young has previously shown he can set the edge extremely well, and he must do so consistently when matched up with Walker, but the success of the run defense also hinges on what happens inside.

Arik Armstead vs. Jon Runyan

San Francisco's defense received a huge boost this week when Arik Armstead returned to practice having missed the last five games with foot and knee injuries.

The 49ers have struggled markedly on run defense without him, giving up 115.4 yards per game having allowed an average of 79 yards, the fewest in the NFL, across the first 12 games with him on the field. 

Back to full health, Armstead will likely man the left defensive tackle spot, putting him in a battle with Green Bay's starting right guard Jon Runyan.

Runyan is not the only player Armstead will face, however. He will likely see a substantial amount of double teams from the Packer O-Line, with Green Bay thriving this season on duo runs. Armstead, though, has consistently shown his ability to hold his ground against double teams and take away interior running lanes.

The 49ers' hopes of shutting the Packers down will improve greatly if he can do that. If he and fellow starting defensive tackle Javon Hargrave can also dominate as pass rushers, that will be a recipe for a much-needed strong defensive showing.

Deommodore Lenoir vs. Jayden Reed

Arguably the most dangerous aspect of the Green Bay offense is that the Packers have so many passing game weapons with which to attack. 

Rookie Jayden Reed did not have a catch in the Packers' win over the Cowboys, but the second-round pick has quickly established himself as a dynamic weapon from the slot.

Reed's 653 yards from the slot in the regular season were the third most in the NFL, highlighting the challenge for Deommodore Lenoir, who plays outside corner on base downs and in the slot on nickel downs.

Lenoir has emerged as a critical playmaker for the 49ers over the last two seasons and had three interceptions and 10 pass breakups during the regular season.

He'll have a huge task on his hands rotating between the outside and the slot against this versatile receiving corps, but the 49ers' hopes of keeping that group in check will be bolstered if Lenoir can minimize the threat of Reed.