Are the Bears paying for the prime version of Montez Sweat?
The Chicago Bears made a move many thought they'd make and signed their newly-acquired pass rusher, Montez Sweat, to a contract extension. Per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, it's a four-year, $98 million deal that includes more than $72 million in guarantees. It's worth up to $105 million, total.Coming into the season, Sweat had 29.0 sacks […]
The Chicago Bears made a move many thought they'd make and signed their newly-acquired pass rusher, Montez Sweat, to a contract extension.
Per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, it's a four-year, $98 million deal that includes more than $72 million in guarantees. It's worth up to $105 million, total.
Coming into the season, Sweat had 29.0 sacks over the course of 59 career games to his name. That ranked 25th out of all defenders since 2019, so it makes sense if people are questioning the rationalization of the contract. The $98 million and the annual average value of $24.5 million per year are both fifth-highest among EDGE rushers and the AAV is just $500k less per year than what Myles Garrett currently makes. The $72,865,360 in guarantees is sixth-most out of all defenders.
And, in terms of all defenders, the $98 million is 11th-most and the AAV is sixth-highest. When looking at Sweat's overall resume, it's definitely fair to question the price tag. But it's also fair to guess the Bears believe Sweat is entering his prime based off his 2022 numbers and what he's done, so far, in 2023.
For starters, Smith is a complete defensive end who can defend the run and get after the quarterback. And he can do it a high level. That in itself is already going to set his price at a certain amount thanks to market rate and whatnot.
When looking at Smith's numbers since 2022, there the Bears have a credible argument. The fifth-year defensive end set career highs in Pro Football Focus' advanced metrics like total pressures (62), pass rush productivity (8.3%), and pass rush win rate (15.0%) in 2022. Those numbers finished 12th, 15th, and 15th among the 64 qualifying EDGE players with at least 294 pass rush snaps on the year.
Seven of his eight sacks came against a true pass set and his PRP and win rate both increased to where he finished the year tied for ninth and in 11th with marks of 12.5% and 21.3%, respectively. It's logical to see why the Bears would be excited about all of that and see 2023 as a springboard. Especially since Sweat is on track to set a new career-best in sacks.
But, his advanced numbers have dipped quite a bit, which typically tell more than straight-up sack totals. And when looking at each of his sacks, it's fair to say a few of them were more caused more by the overall situation, than Sweat, himself.
Here, Russell Wilson is flushed out of the pocket by Chase Young, which eventually leads to a half-sack for Sweat. It's fair to say Sweat doesn't affect the play if Wilson isn't forced out:
Another one of his half-sacks came off a nearly identical play against his team in Justin Fields and the Bears:
Sweat's sack of Jalen Hurts in Week 8 also came from a collapsed pocket caused by other teammates. His sack against the New York Giants came way of a really bad rep by an offensive tackle and just a bad offensive play design, in general.
Right there are three of Sweats 6.5 sacks that are fair to be called into question when it comes to how the situation developed. Now, to be fair, he's had some legit moments in 2023, as well. But there haven't been enough top-5 money moments.
The thing with Sweat being surrounded by premium talent in Washington, is, things won't be the same in Chicago. The Bears are hoping Sweat's perceived ascension can uplift a defense that has just 10 sacks on the year. And it's not just about sacks, which can sometimes be fluky numbers, as just discussed. The overall pressure isn't there, at all, as the Bears are currently second-to-last in overall pressure rate (16.6%) despite blitzing at a much higher rate (24.5%) than they did last year (18.2%).
Sure, Sweat's valuable as a run defender, but the Bears need him to keep ramping up his pass rush skills at a more consistent level. They don't need the guy who has languished in the below-average rankings when it comes to applicable metrics – they need the guy who looked like a top-15 EDGE rusher in 2022 to keep pressing forward as key part of the defensive line and defense, as a whole.
If that doesn't happen, then this will certainly turn out to be another failed second-round trade by Ryan Poles. Except it will be much, much more expensive (and impossible to get out of) than the Chase Claypool experiment.
Jaylon Johnson deal next on the table for Bears after Montez Sweat extension
Another decision needs to be made
