49ers' Week 4 spread not reflective of challenge they face in NFC West clash

It's no surprise the 49ers are heavy favorites for their Week 4 game with the Cardinals. San Francisco, per betonline.ag, is a 14-point favorite for the visit of Arizona to Levi's Stadium despite the Cardinals pulling off a major upset in their stunning 28-16 win over the Cowboys in Week 3. In the final game […]

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Jan 8, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) stiff arms Arizona Cardinals cornerback Jace Whittaker (39) in the third quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports

It's no surprise the 49ers are heavy favorites for their Week 4 game with the Cardinals.

San Francisco, per betonline.ag, is a 14-point favorite for the visit of Arizona to Levi's Stadium despite the Cardinals pulling off a major upset in their stunning 28-16 win over the Cowboys in Week 3.

In the final game of the previous regular season, the 49ers easily covered a 14.5-point spread in a  blowout home win over the Cardinals. Despite several moves that point to an organizational teardown by Arizona, all signs from the first three weeks indicate this Cardinals team will provide a more resolute challenge.

The Cardinals' opening two defeats prior to their remarkable win over the Cowboys each came by one score. Arizona led the Commanders 13-7 in the season opener and had a 20-0 advantage in Week 2 against the Giants but surrendered both leads.

Arizona's status as a surprisingly dangerous threat is illustrated by their performance in Expected Points Added (EPA) per play on offense, in which the Cardinals rank 11th, per rbsdm.com.

However, on defense the numbers are less impressive. The Cardinals rank 20th in EPA per play on defense, with their dropback EPA on that side of the ball (17th), much more impressive than their rush defense EPA (27th).

The vulnerability against the run should play right into the hands of the 49ers, who rank second in EPA per play on offense and fourth on defense.

While this remains an apparent mismatch and the 49ers will be expected to take care of business with little difficulty, the huge spread is not reflective of the resistance they will likely face from a Cardinals team that has a lot more spirit than the one San Francisco hammered back in January.

Featured Image Credit: Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports