Nick Chubb’s injury creates unfortunate opportunity for Derrick Henry

NASHVILLE — Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry is currently sitting atop the active NFL leaders with 8,478 career rushing yards. Henry is 1,522 yards away from becoming the 32nd player in NFL history to break the 10,000-yard threshold. With 15 games to play this season, it's possible that Henry could reach the mark by […]

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Derrick Henry
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NASHVILLE — Tennessee Titans running back Derrick Henry is currently sitting atop the active NFL leaders with 8,478 career rushing yards.

Henry is 1,522 yards away from becoming the 32nd player in NFL history to break the 10,000-yard threshold. With 15 games to play this season, it's possible that Henry could reach the mark by the end of the year.

But with Cleveland Browns running back Nick Chubb (3rd amongst active players) suffering an ugly knee injury on Monday night in Pittsburgh, Henry could be the NFL's last chance at history. It begs the question: Will Derrick Henry be the NFL's last 10,000 yard rusher ever?

I know that feels like an overreaction, but with how the running game is viewed in today's NFL and the way running backs are treated/paid, another back getting to 10k feels like a tall task.

Other than Henry (8,478) and Chubb (6,511), most of the active players with over 5,000 career rushing yards are no longer feature backs in an offense and are quickly heading towards retirement. 

Ezekiel Elliott is at 8,304. Melvin Gordon is 4th among active players with 6,462. You then have Latavius Murray at 6,282, and Dalvin Cook at 6,033. But if we're being honest, none of those guys have 1,000-yard seasons left in the tank, let alone the 3-4 seasons it would take to reach 10k.

Christian McCaffrey (4,994) and Josh Jacobs (4,786) are still two of the best running backs in the game, but neither one is even halfway there. Here's a few more numbers to really put thing into perspective: 

  • Only three running backs (Henry, Chubb, Jacobs) had over 300 rushing attempts in 2022. The 15 running backs to reach at least 1,000 rushing yards in 2022 averaged 257 carries and 1,205 yards on the season. 
  • Tiki Barber's 2,217 career rushing attempts is the lowest total amongst the running backs in the 10k club.
  • If we assume that 257 carries and 1,205 yards in a season is the average pace for 1,000-yard rusher in today's NFL, eight seasons of that production is still only good for 2,056 carries and 9,640 yards.
  • That would be eight 1,200-yard seasons, a feat that has only ever been done by Walter Payton, Emmitt Smith, and Barry Sanders, and it's still to enough for the 10k club.

  •  In the last decade, no running back has had 1,200 rushing yards in a season more than three times. Derrick Henry, Nick Chubb, Ezekiel Elliott, LeSean McCoy, and Le'Veon Bell have all done it three times.

Bell cow running backs like Derrick Henry are just not as prevalent as they used to be. Finding a back that is able to consistently take 300+ carries, avoid major injury, and maintain their speed and agility for 8-10 years is nearly impossible.

Players like Henry are a dying breed, which is why he is such a legend.

NFL franchises today prefer the running back by committee approach, and their recent financial investments mirror that interest. Fair or not, teams don't want to pay running backs beyond the life of a 4-5 year rookie contract. How is a player going to have 8-10 great seasons and reach 10k when even the best of the best struggle to get a second contract?

All you have tot do is look at the top six rushers from last season. Dalvin Cook got cut. Miles Sanders got traded. Josh Jacobs and Saquon Barkley both went through holdouts over their contract and got one-year deals. Then you have Nick Chubb, who is out for the season, and…Derrick Henry.

Is it possible that 15 years from now the NFL has circled back to an era where running the ball and playing good defense is the key the winning Super Bowls? Maybe…but in a world driven by TV dollars and social media engagement, the explosive, offense-heavy, pass-first NFL is the far more marketable product.

Perhaps Bijan Robinson will lead the league in rushing as a rookie, break records, and prove me wrong in the next 5-10 years. He certainly looks the part, but I probably would have said the same thing about Ezekiel Elliott when he was a top five draft pick that ran for 1,631 yards as a rookie or Saquon Barkley before his string of injuries.

This is just what the league is now, so savor every moment of Henry's countdown to 10k. If he's able to get there, it might be the last time we ever see it. That's the unfortunate reality.

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