Patriots Mock Draft: Franchise-defining player lands in New England
If you're a Patriots fan, you've likely been experimenting with a mock draft simulator for weeks now. With the third overall pick, the Patriots are in legitimate 'franchise-defining player' territory. Ideally, the team would secure a top-two pick to guarantee either Drake Maye or Caleb Williams. There are still eight games left to be played, […]
If you're a Patriots fan, you've likely been experimenting with a mock draft simulator for weeks now. With the third overall pick, the Patriots are in legitimate 'franchise-defining player' territory. Ideally, the team would secure a top-two pick to guarantee either Drake Maye or Caleb Williams. There are still eight games left to be played, and a lot can, and likely will, change. For the sake of examining how it might play out, let's conduct a mock draft. To establish some ground rules, I'm factoring in consensus draft rankings and positional value. I won't be exploring any hypothetical trade scenarios, keeping it simple.
1.) Chicago Bears
Selection: Marvin Harrison Jr, Wide Receiver, Ohio State.
As I mentioned before, I’m not including trades in this mock, but I think if the Bears were to finish with the first overall pick, they would likely end up trading it. Historically speaking, teams with top-three picks can receive a king's ransom to move down the board. I do believe they would seriously consider a QB here, but the deciding factor will be how Justin Fields plays over the next seven games. It’s essentially an audition for QB1, and these upcoming games serve as his first interview. If he were to struggle in these next handful of games, it would make it very hard for the Bears to pass on a QB with the first pick. It’s worth noting that if the Bears move on from head coach Matt Eberflus and General Manager Ryan Poles, the next HC/GM may want their preferred QB. It’s not uncommon for new HC/GMs to hit the restart button at QB.
All those possibilities aside, for this hypothetical, they stick with Fields. Harrison Jr is the best receiving prospect since Julio Jones and one of the best receiving prospects ever. Harrison Jr has been dominating Power Five schools week in and week out for the past two seasons, averaging 98.6 yards per game. There have only been two receivers to go first overall in the Super Bowl era. The Patriots selected Irving Fryar with the first overall pick in 1984, and the Jets selected Keyshawn Johnson first overall in 1996. Both went on to be key contributors to their franchises, playing over 400 games combined. Despite the rarity of a receiver going first overall, Harrison Jr is that good. Due to the value of the QB prospects in this upcoming class, this pick would likely get traded, and the Bears might still have a chance at Harrison Jr further down the board.
2.) Arizona Cardinals
Selection: Olumuyiwa Fashanu, Offensive Tackle, Penn State.
Kyler Murray is back, and he looks good. For Patriots fans, the Bears and Cardinals holding the first two picks is a dream come true for the pursuit of a QB. The Cardinals would have loved Harrison Jr here, but they opt for the next blue-chip prospect at a position of need. Currently, the Cardinals have the 23rd-ranked offensive line, and it is imperative to protect their franchise QB. Murray is small and coming off a season-ending knee injury; there has never been a better time to ensure that your investment is safe. They already have a top-ten pick tied up in Paris Johnson from a year ago, as well as a pretty hefty contract for DJ Humphries, but you don’t pass up on a elite pass-blocking prospect like Fashanu who has never allowed a sack in his collegiate career.
3.) New England Patriots
Selection: Caleb Williams, Quarterback, USC.
We entered the 2023 college football season expecting Caleb Williams to be the runaway first QB selected, and that gap has shrunk with the continued emergence of UNC QB Drake Maye. It’s a close race between them for the 'best QB' in this draft, but they're ultimately both elite, blue-chip prospects. The Patriots take Caleb Williams here for a simple reason: he can create better outside of structure. Maye also offers high-end creativity as a passer, but Williams is slightly more impressive in that regard. The Patriots need extra creativity from their passer with a lackluster offensive line and skill position weapons. The Patriots land a QB with legit top-3 QB in the NFL upside and reset the franchise for the next decade.
Williams ends his career at USC with 10,082 passing yards, 120 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. He averaged an impressive 3.2 touchdowns per game and was one of the best deep passers in the nation this past season with 25 of his 30 touchdown coming on passes over 20+ yards.
4.) Chicago Bears
Selection: Joe Alt, Offensive Tackle, Notre Dame.
What a dream scenario for the Bears. They land the top receiving prospect and one of the top tackle prospects. The race between Alt and Fashanu is a close one. Fashanu is considered the better pass protection prospect with elite athleticism, but he is raw as a run-blocker. Alt, on the other hand, is more well-rounded and offers high-end pass and run-blocking from day one. The Bears have now provided Justin Fields with two tackles drafted in the top-10 in back-to-back drafts, as well as Marvin Harrison Jr. and DJ Moore.
5.) New York Giants
Selection: Drake Maye, Quarterback, North Carolina.
Maye and Williams almost definitely won’t fall to picks three and five, but as I mentioned, I’m not including trades here. You have to imagine the Giants have seen enough of the Daniel Jones project, right? Over the past two seasons, Daniel Jones's 2.0% big-time throw rate is the lowest in the NFL. It was always head-scratching when the team handed him a four-year, $160m deal in the offseason. This is their chance to make a big upgrade.
Maye, on the other hand, has been one of the nation's most aggressive passers. Of the 22 college QBs with a minimum of 400 dropbacks, Maye ranks number one in big-time throw percentage. He is not making ill-advised throws, forcing the ball into tight coverage either. Maye also ranks bottom five in turnover-worthy plays. He routinely makes the most difficult throws on the field while still protecting the ball at an elite level. Maye catapults the Giants back into relevance.
6.) Tennessee Titans
Selection: Brock Bowers, Tight End, Georgia.
Bowers is one of the best tight end prospects we’ve seen in a long time. As a receiving prospect, he’s elite. He’s a solid blocker too, but that’s not why you’re drafting him. To a degree, he’ll always be limited as a blocker because he’s only 240 lbs. In the same breath, his athleticism for 240 lbs is rare. He has elite straight-line speed coupled with elite lateral agility. His archetype is similar to Travis Kelce but with a bit of extra juice. Chigoziem Okonkwo hasn’t shown enough in year two to pass on a blue-chip tight end prospect like Bowers.
7.) Washington Commanders
Selection: Chop Robinson, EDGE, Penn State.
The Commanders traded both of their young pass rushers at the trade deadline and are now in desperate need of edge help. I don’t love trading two proven NFL players for day two picks to then come back and draft another one at the top of the draft, but they have created a position of need for themselves. The edge rankings in this class are a bit murkier than other positions and are a position group I expect to get more consistent rankings on as we approach the draft. As of now, the top edge is likely Chop Robinson, Alabama’s Dallas Turner, or Florida State’s Jared Verse. Another one worth mentioning is UCLA’s Laiatu Latu, who is probably the most talented edge defender and would be a top-8 lock if he wasn’t forced to retire from football for two seasons due to a neck injury. He is the current number two edge prospect on the consensus board, but he will likely slide due to the injury risk.
As for what the Commanders are getting in Robinson, he has put together elite back-to-back pass-rushing seasons and is currently the fifth-highest graded pass rusher in college football among the 999 qualifying pass rushers, according to Pro Football Focus. He is no slouch as a run defender either, grading out in the upper echelons of edge defenders. Robinson is currently graded as the 97th best run defender among the 1,026 qualifying edge defenders.
8.) Atlanta Falcons
Selection: Michael Penix, Quarterback, Washington.
Beyond the top two QBs, the rankings are murky. The consensus QB3 has changed numerous times, but using some predictive measures, Penix will end up in contention for QB3. The Desmond Ridder experiment has been a failure, and he’s been benched. The Falcons desperately need a QB to utilize the weapons they’ve drafted over the last several years. Tight end Kyle Pitts, receiver Drake London, and running back Bijan Robinson are all promising playmakers under 25 years old. Penix is an older prospect currently in his sixth year in college. He has always shown promise but dealt with knee injuries. It seems he has finally put it all together and stayed healthy. Penix has thrown 30 touchdowns to 7 interceptions in 11 games so far this season and is likely going to be a first-round pick. I’m not sure he goes this early, but we will know more as the draft process unfolds. I expect the Falcons to be trade-up candidates to potentially land one of the top two guys.
9.) Green Bay Packers
Selection: Nate Wiggins, Cornerback, Clemson.
Maybe the fastest riser in the draft process, Clemson corner Nate Wiggins appears to have the makings of a top-10 pick. The Packers are in good shape with a top-10 pick and a pretty well-rounded roster. Adding Wiggins to the secondary to pair with Jaire Alexander could form one of the most formidable pass defenses in the NFL. Wiggins has allowed just a 42.4% completion percentage in coverage, coupled with a 39.1 passer rating. His movement skills are among the best in the class, and I fully expect him to be a top-15 talent.
10.) Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Selection: Malik Nabers, Wide Receiver, LSU.
I think Baker Mayfield has impressed enough to be given a second year to either continue to build continuity or lead them to another QB. At this point in the draft, there is no point in reaching for a QB when you have a serviceable answer already in the building. The writing is on the wall; Mike Evans' time as a Buccaneer is likely coming to an end. That will leave them with a massive void to fill on the outside, and Nabers seamlessly fits in.
Nabers leads the nation in receiving yards with 1,423 and is fourth in receiving touchdowns with 12. He is currently PFFs highest graded receiver and a player I fully expect to receive top ten consideration.
