The Dallas Cowboys will travel to the state of New York to face the Buffalo Bills on Sunday, which means several things but mostly, it's two in my mind: 

1. A top-tier quarterback duel between MVP frontrunner Dak Prescott and Josh Allen.
2. The always scary December weather in Buffalo.

There's no denying it. If your team happens to face the Bills in the final stretch of the season, you just know bad things might happen. In Week 15 of last year, the Bills hosted a snowy game where fans literally bombarded Miami Dolphins players with snowballs from the stands!

The Weather Channel ranked Buffalo as the worst weather city to play in in the NFL, describing the challenge as follows:

"Cold winds blowing off Lake Erie manufacture heavy bands of lake-effect snow that can park over the Buffalo metro area for hours, dumping feet of snow. The Bills' stadium is located in Orchard Park, one of the Southtowns frequently pummeled by lake-effect snow."

What will the weather be like for Cowboys vs. Bills? 

The Cowboys are getting lucky ahead of the game. 

According to the National Weather Service, the weather forecast for Sunday at Orchard Park consists of "a chance of showers between 8am and 2pm, then rain after 2pm (game set for 4:25 pm ET). High near 50. Breezy, with a south wind 16 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts of less than a tenth of an inch possible."

While the chance of rain and occasional wind gusts as high as 31 mph are of note, it doesn't seem like playing a snow game against the Bills is in the cards, which should be considered a significant win. Not to mention, weather of high near 50 is as good of a weather as you can get on a game in Buffalo. 

Despite the possible rain and wind (which we will discuss in a bit), avoiding the Buffalo cold should have Cowboys Nation relieved. It's a setting that the Bills know very well and while it'll be homefield advantage, it won't be the full version of it.  

Wind could affect Dak Prescott and Josh Allen, though

That being said, the wind will be the real factor on the game as gusts as high as 31 mph could affect the games in key moments; especially in the passing and kicking game. 

In a 2019 article for Towards Data Science, Josh Mancuso found that "The effect of wind/wind gusts is the most significant weather variable affecting QB performance. The effects are fairly slight for avg wind speeds from 0 mph up to about 15 mph, but above that threshold, the difference in fantasy points is about 12% less. In games with winds over 20 mph, the negative effects are more significant, with ~17% fewer fantasy points per game."

While fantasy football points is definitely not the best way to evaluate quarterbacks, it does speak to the way coaches might approach a game, leaning on the run game over the passing game in certain instances. 

Will it turn into a low-scoring game?

This is where I'm mostly skeptical. Sure it'll impact the offense and Brandon Aubrey even but will it turn the game upside down into a slugfest? I'm not buying it.

Vegas isn't, either. The betting markets aren't expecting the weather to really impact this one as the total sits at 50.5, tied for the highest in Week 15. So it seems like we might be overblowing the impact of the weather on Sunday.

Earlier this year, we saw Josh Allen and the Bills sling the football around even in the rain when playing the Philadelphia Eagles. Entering Week 15, it'd make sense to expect Buffalo to approach the game similarly.

The question then becomes if Cowboys head coach Mike McCarthy will change things up significantly with his own offense. Clearly, the best version of the unit is the one that puts the ball in the hands of Dak Prescott. That seems like the smart bet against the Bills defense, regardless of the weather. 

Josh Allen could make Cowboys pay for latest injury update

It could be very costly.