Seven teams go to the playoffs per conference in the NFL. Right now, according to the New York Times playoff picture tool, the Green Bay Packers are seventh in chances at making the postseason, with 50%. It's a remarkable improvement over the last two weeks, after unexpected wins over the Los Angeles Chargers and Detroit Lions.

After losing to the Pittsburgh Steelers in week 10, the Packers had a 9% chance of making the playoffs. That chance improved to 25% last week, and 50% now because of an unlikely and intra-divisional win.

Better than that, other results around the NFL in week 12 were really good for the Packers wild card prospects. The Seattle Seahawks lost to the San Francisco 49ers and have a tough schedule coming up, while the Minnesota Vikings lost to the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football.

Wild card race (teams with a bigger than 1% chance of making the playoffs):

Team	Record	Playoff chances
Dallas Cowboys	8-3	99%
Minnesota Vikings	6-6	51%
Green Bay Packers	5-6	50%
New Orleans Saints	5-6	43%
Los Angeles Rams	5-6	42%
Seattle Seahawks	6-5	35%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4-7	15%
Chicago Bears	4-8	2%

The biggest positive point about the Packers is how favorable their schedule is. The team has a tough game against the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday Night Football coming up, but after that, every game is relatively easy or realistically winnable — at New York Giants, vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers, at Carolina Panthers, at Minnesota Vikings, and vs Chicago Bears.

If the Packers beat the Giants, the Panthers, and the Bears, who are the three worst teams on their schedule, they will have a 78% chance of making the playoffs.

Tough game, good math

The Packers drastically improved their playoffs chances over the last two weeks because they beat teams nobody expected them to. In a model based on simulations, that's what allows more significant variations.

So in week 13, the Packers have almost a free-pass game. Right now, they have a 50% chance of making the playoffs. If they lose, the chances go down to 46% — a small variance of four percentage points. But if they pull off the upset, their chances go up to 69%.

That happens because the New York Times tool bases its results on 21,620 simulations between now and the end of the season. And the Chiefs beat the Packers in most of them.

The most important game of the schedule will be against the Minnesota Vikings in week 17. They make the playoffs in 71% of the simulations when they win that game, and in just 33% when they lose. It's a divisional game, thus more relevant for tie-breaking purposes, and against a direct opponent in the wild card race.

Two weeks ago, when A to Z started making playoff projection pieces, a postseason push by the Packers seemed impossible. But it's a highly realistic scenario at this point, especially considering that it's a young team that tends to learn and get better during the season.

Green Bay won't be favorites, and maybe it's not a real NFC contender. But for a retooling season, being in the playoff contention is already relevant — and if they can make it to the postseason, it would be an invaluable experience for the young players.

Week 12 games help the Packers draft capital

Brian Gutekunst is slated to make five top-80 picks