49ers Playoff Picture: San Francisco faces decisive Week 13 in one seed race

The San Francisco 49ers find themselves in a familiar position in the NFC playoff picture heading into Week 13. After crushing the Seattle Seahawks on Thanksgiving Night, a result that followed a Detroit Lions loss to the Green Bay Packers, the 49ers vaulted up to the second seed in the NFC. San Francisco, however, has […]

Nicholas McGee

Nov 28, 2023 9:32 AM EST

Nov 23, 2023; Seattle, Washington, USA; San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey (23) celebrates with quarterback Brock Purdy (13) and wide receiver Deebo Samuel (19) after catching a touchdown pass from Purdy against the Seattle Seahawks during the second quarter at Lumen Field. — Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports

The San Francisco 49ers find themselves in a familiar position in the NFC playoff picture heading into Week 13.

After crushing the Seattle Seahawks on Thanksgiving Night, a result that followed a Detroit Lions loss to the Green Bay Packers, the 49ers vaulted up to the second seed in the NFC.

San Francisco, however, has ambitions on claiming top spot in the NFC, and the Niners are entering the most crucial week of their season in regards to that goal.

Here's a look at how the NFC playoff picture stands entering Week 13.

NFC Playoff Picture

Philadelphia Eagles (10-1) – 1st in NFC East
San Francisco 49ers (8-3) – 1st in NFC West
Detroit Lions (8-3) – 1st in NFC North
Atlanta Falcons (5-6) – 1st in NFC South
Dallas Cowboys (8-3) – Wild Card
Seattle Seahawks (6-5) – Wild Card
Minnesota Vikings (6-6) – Wild Card

In the hunt

Green Bay Packers (5-6)
Los Angeles Rams (5-6)
New Orleans Saints (5-6)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-7)

If the season ended today, the 49ers would be facing a home Wild Card game with the Minnesota Vikings and would have plenty of motivation for revenge after losing to Minnesota in Week 7. Yet there is plenty of time for things to change, and the 49ers still have a chance to ensure they are getting some rest on Wild Card weekend.

Can the 49ers get the one seed?

Their win in Seattle and Green Bay's surprise triumph in Detroit certainly improved the 49ers' odds of ending the regular season top of the pile, and they can do their hopes the power of good by emerging victorious in Sunday's mammoth NFC Championship Game rematch with the Eagles.

San Francisco is a surprise favorite for that game despite Philadelphia having a two-game lead in the race for the one seed. Right now, the 49ers, per The New York Times' playoff simulator, have a 25 percent chance to claim the one seed.

That improves to 44 percent with victory in Philadelphia. Fail to avenge last season's playoff loss, and the 49ers' prospects of having the one seed, a first-round bye and homefield advantage throughout the playoffs will be essentially dead at two percent.

The 49ers' season does not rest on the result at Lincoln Financial Field, but the chances of the NFC road to the Super Bowl running through Levi's Stadium do.

Who could the 49ers play in the Wild Card round?

According to the NYT, the three teams outside of the Cowboys with the highest odds to be a road Wild Card team are the Packers (48%), Vikings (47%) and Rams (41%).

The Vikings have a five percent shot to win the NFC North and host a Wild Card game even after their stunning home loss to the Chicago Bears on Monday, but the most realistic scenario is that their home game with the Packers in Week 17 could effectively decide which of those two division rivals makes it into the postseason.

Los Angeles has three favorable games in which the Rams host the Saints and the Washington Commanders before facing the New York Giants on the road.

However, the Rams would still need to claim at least one win from two tough upcoming matchups with the Cleveland Browns and Baltimore Ravens and their season finale against the Niners to get to the nine-win total that will probably be enough to clinch a seven seed and a potentially extremely intriguing round one matchup at Levi's Stadium if San Francisco ends up in its current seeding.