AFC Playoff Picture: How Chiefs can regain control of No. 1 seed

The Kansas City Chiefs don't currently control the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but they could soon regain control of it.  As things currently stand the Chiefs have a 46% chance to secure the No. 1 seed in the conference and secure the lone first-round bye week for the conference. If Kansas City were […]

Charles Goldman — NFL Managing Editor
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The Kansas City Chiefs don't currently control the No. 1 seed in the AFC, but they could soon regain control of it. 

As things currently stand the Chiefs have a 46% chance to secure the No. 1 seed in the conference and secure the lone first-round bye week for the conference. If Kansas City were to win their game against the Green Bay Packers in Week 13, those chances would soar to 52%. 

If the season ended today, the AFC playoffs wouldn't go through Arrowhead Stadium. Instead, they'd be played at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore.

If the playoffs began today. . .

  1. Baltimore Ravens (9-3)
  2. Kansas City Chiefs (8-3)
  3. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-3)
  4. Miami Dolphins (8-3)
  5. Pittsburgh Steelers (7-4)
  6. Cleveland Browns (7-4)
  7. Houston Texans (6-5)

In the hunt. . .

  1. Indianapolis Colts(6-5)
  2. Denver Broncos (6-5)
  3. Buffalo Bills (6-6)
  4. Cincinnati Bengals (5-5)

Likely to be eliminated. . .

  1. Las Vegas Raiders (5-7)
  2. Los Angeles Chargers (4-7)
  3. Tennessee Titans (4-7)
  4. New York Jets (4-7)
  5. New England Patriots (2-9)

How Kansas City can regain the No. 1 seed:

The Chiefs hurt themselves a bit by dropping their Week 11 game against the Philadelphia Eagles. Had they won that game, they'd be sitting at a 9-2 overall record atop the AFC conference. Instead, they're a game back to the Baltimore Ravens, who currently control the No. 1 seed. 

Kansas City can regain control of the No. 1 seed as early as next week with a win over the Packers in Week 13. Baltimore has a bye week in Week 13, so they won't have an opportunity to gain ground on KC. If the Chiefs and Ravens tied at a 9-3 record after the results of Week 13, Kansas City would own the tiebreaker due to a better AFC conference win record. Baltimore has lost all three of their games to AFC opponents, while the KC has only lost a single game to an AFC opponent. 

If the Chiefs can't defeat the Packers on the road, they'll have to rely on some help down the stretch. The Ravens still face the Jacksonville Jaguars and the San Francisco 49ers, so it's not entirely out of the realm of possibility that they drop a few more games as the regular season comes to a close.

Chiefs' upcoming schedule:

  • Dec. 3 at Green Bay Packers on "Sunday Night Football"
  • Dec. 10 vs. Buffalo Bills
  • Dec. 18 at New England Patriots on "Monday Night Football"

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