Packers playoff aspirations dwindle after loss on Monday
The loss to the New York Giants was a big blow to the Green Bay Packers math to make the playoffs. If they had won, they would have a 79% chance of going to the postseason, but the 24-22 loss dropped it to 50%. The Packers are still one of the three NFC teams with […]
The loss to the New York Giants was a big blow to the Green Bay Packers math to make the playoffs. If they had won, they would have a 79% chance of going to the postseason, but the 24-22 loss dropped it to 50%. The Packers are still one of the three NFC teams with the most chance of making the playoffs as a wild card, but they have no margin for error left.
Fortunately for Green Bay, the Los Angeles Rams and the Seattle Seahawks also lost. But the Minnesota Vikings and the New Orleans Saints won. Even teams that had almost no chance, like the Giants themselves and the Chicago Bears, are back in contention.
The Dallas Cowboys took the NFC East over, pushing the Philadelphia Eagles to the wild card race, but that fight doesn't impact the Packers much. One of them will win the division, and the other will be the fifth seed.
| Teams | Record | Playoff chances |
|---|---|---|
Philadelphia Eagles | 10-3 | >99% |
Minnesota Vikings | 7-6 | 62% |
Green Bay Packers | 6-7 | 50% |
Los Angeles Rams | 6-7 | 37% |
Atlanta Falcons | 6-7 | 34% |
New Orleans Saints | 6-7 | 32% |
Seattle Seahawks | 6-7 | 21% |
Chicago Bears | 5-8 | 8% |
New York Giants | 5-8 | 2% |
Next week's game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is totally huge for the Packers. If they win, their chances go up to 65%. However, a loss would drop it to 28%. It's a major swing.
From now on, every game is decisive, especially the NFC North matchup against the Minnesota Vikings.
Packers chances
- If 4-0: 100%.
- If 3-1: 97% if the loss is to Tampa Bay, 98% if Carolina, 89% if Minnesota, 98% if Chicago.
- If 2-2: 36% if losing to the NFC South teams, 6% if to the NFC North teams.
- If 1-3: less than 1%.
In the end, beating the Kansas City Chiefs and losing to the New York Giants was not a great combination. Even though the Chiefs game was more relevant narrative-wise, it's always better to beat NFC teams because of tie-breaking purposes.
Either way, the Packers have four NFC games left, and two of them are divisional ones. Theoretically, all games are winnable, but this young team is highly unpredictable — and now they need some sort of positive predictability to make the playoffs.
NFC North
A win over the Giants would put the Packers in position even to compete for the NFC North title. After losing to the Chicago Bears, the Detroit Lions are 9-4, and the Packers would have gone to 7-6 with a win on Monday. It wouldn't be easy to overcome a two-game deficit, but it would be a realistic consideration.
Now, this is basically over. If the Packers go to the playoffs, it's as a wild card team — and sixth or seventh seed, as the fifth seed is mostly locked by whoever gets the second place in the NFC East.
Making the playoffs as sixth seed would still be important, because that would probably mean another game against the Lions. The seventh seed will face the San Francisco 49ers or the NFC East winner. It's a hard path anyway, and a playoff appearance per se would be a huge step for this young team.
But the loss to the New York Giants made everything much more difficult.
Cover 3: Quick takeaways after Packers loss to the Giants
Green Bay fell to 6-7 in the season
