Bengals Playoff Picture: Wild card or bust with three weeks to go

Sunday night sealed the Cincinnati Bengals' fate for the 2023 NFL season: Wild Card or bust. The AFC North will have a new champion this year, continuing the division's history of never having a three-peat winner. If the Bengals want to make a run in the postseason, they'll have to do it starting on the road. Just […]

John Sheeran — Cincinnati Bengals News Writer
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Sunday night sealed the Cincinnati Bengals' fate for the 2023 NFL season: Wild Card or bust. 

The AFC North will have a new champion this year, continuing the division's history of never having a three-peat winner. If the Bengals want to make a run in the postseason, they'll have to do it starting on the road. 

Just getting to the postseason will be impressive for Cincinnati despite the three-game win streak the team is riding. Here's an updated look at the playoff picture for the AFC.

AFC playoff picture if the season ended today:

  1. Baltimore Ravens (11-3) – 1st AFC North
  2. Miami Dolphins (10-4) – 1st AFC East
  3. Kansas City Chiefs (9-5) – 1st AFC West
  4. Jacksonville Jaguars (8-6) – 1st AFC South
  5. Cleveland Browns (9-5) – Wild Card
  6. Cincinnati Bengals (8-6) – Wild Card
  7. Indianapolis Colts (8-6) – Wild Card

In the hunt:

A spot in the AFC bracket was clinched Sunday evening when the Ravens won their fourth-straight game to reach 11 wins on the season. They're in the driver's seat to not only win the AFC North, but have home field advantage for the playoffs. 

Keeping pace a game behind the Ravens are the Dolphins, who shutout the New York Jets and eliminated them from playoff contention. The Chiefs also got back on track to maintain their spot in the No. 3 seed, and the Jags are holding on for dear life ahead of the AFC South after three-straight defeats to AFC North squads. 

The Bengals essentially took the Steelers' spot in the Wild Card race from last week while the Browns and Colts remain in the picture following wins of their own. They own head-to-head tiebreakers over the Colts and Bills, but many more factors are against Cincinnati in terms of clinching ahead of those two teams.

Will the Bengals make the playoffs?

Here's where the complications arise. The New York Times has the Bengals with a 35% chance of making the postseason, an increase from last week, but not quite at the level of other contenders. Here's how it compares to other teams in the hunt:

  • Browns: 88%
  • Bills: 71%
  • Texans: 55%
  • Colts: 53%
  • Bengals: 35%
  • Broncos: 21%
  • Steelers: 3%

The Bengals have faced teams above .500 for the past several weeks, and will continue to do so for the remainder of the way. Strength of schedule factors into their percentage, and strength of victory can also help them with tiebreakers. In a nutshell, they need at minimum two more wins and losses from the Bills, Texans, and Colts.

Bengals’ remaining schedule:

  • at Pittsburgh Steelers
  • at Kansas City Chiefs
  • vs. Cleveland Browns

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