Packers lackluster rushing offense is a big question mark

The Green Bay Packers finished last season eighth in run block win rate. Entering this year, the expectation was that the offensive line and running backs would support a young passing offense, giving time and allowing easier plays for Jordan Love and the rookie and second-year receivers. If that was in fact the plan, though, […]

Wendell Ferreira — NFL News Writer
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Elgton Jenkins
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The Green Bay Packers finished last season eighth in run block win rate. Entering this year, the expectation was that the offensive line and running backs would support a young passing offense, giving time and allowing easier plays for Jordan Love and the rookie and second-year receivers. If that was in fact the plan, though, it has failed miserably. And it's even hard to understand the reasons behind the drop in performance.

The Packers have the same playcaller, Matt LaFleur; the same offensive coordinator, Adam Stenavich; the same offensive line coach, Luke Butkus. For the most part, the offensive line is similar, too. David Bakhtiari played 11 games last year, but his impact is much more pronounced as a pass protector, not as a run blocker. And Zach Tom has been better individually than Yosh Nijman was last year at right tackle, which could offset the downgrade at left tackle.

Moreover, the Packers didn't have Bakhtiari and Elgton Jenkins at the beginning of last season, and Tom wasn't starting yet, so the line to start the 2022 season had Jake Hanson at right guard and Royce Newman at right tackle.

Take a look at the PFF run block grades for the Packers starters in 2022 and 2023:

LT

  • 2022 David Bakhtiari 68.5
  • 2023 Rasheed Walker 48.5

LG

  • 2022 Elgton Jenkins 71.8
  • 2023 Elgton Jenkins 51.6

C

  • 2022 Josh Myers 53.5
  • 2023 Josh Myers 47.5

RG

  • 2022 Jon Runyan 53.6
  • 2023 Jon Runyan 50.8

RT

  • 2022 Yosh Nijman 54.1
  • 2023 Zach Tom 82.1

There's a significant dropoff from average to bad with Rasheed Walker at left tackle, but the upgrade at right tackle is bigger with Zach Tom. The most surprising factor is that the interior of the offensive line, with the exact same pieces, is playing much worse. Combining Jenkins, Myers, and Runyan, the team lost 29 PFF-grade points compared to last season. Elgton Jenkins, in particular, went from above average to bad.

"If you look at a lot of the plays that we run, it's usually just one guy here or there not doing their job and that really messes up the whole play," Zach Tom said last week. "I feel like within the offense, there's a feeling that we're right there. When you turn on the film, we are right there. We've just got to put it together."

The Packers are 29th in run block win rate and 16th in rush EPA. But even with all these negative factors, they are still ninth in rushing success rate. That means the down to down efficiency is there, but there are no explosives. Maybe it gets better when Aaron Jones is fully healthy, but the offensive linemen have to be at least what they once were.

"We've got to find a way to make the plays, especially at the end of the game," head coach Matt LaFleur said. "There's been three times this year where our offense has had the ball with an opportunity to go down and take the lead, and we haven't gotten it done."

Matt LaFleur and the coaching staff have a big problem to solve, and it's hard for a run-centric offense to properly function without a solid answer.

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