Why the Georgia Bulldogs have one of the safest win total lines for the 2024 college football season
Not every college football program can simply reload every year. The Georgia Bulldogs have had few issues surviving the NFL churn that comes with building repeated championship-caliber rosters. It's possible they would've won three straight national titles had they not lost in the SEC title game against Alabama last December. Another round of quality transfer […]
Not every college football program can simply reload every year. The Georgia Bulldogs have had few issues surviving the NFL churn that comes with building repeated championship-caliber rosters. It's possible they would've won three straight national titles had they not lost in the SEC title game against Alabama last December.
Another round of quality transfer additions this offseason and the return of quarterback Carson Beck has the Bulldogs in pole position to win once again. They're the leading favorite to win the title, produce the Heisman Trophy winner, and have the second-best odds to make the College Football Playoff.
And yet, the Bulldogs' win total line is still favorable for bettors. Let's look at why the Georgia win total is an easy OVER for us.
Why Play OVER on the Georgia Win Total
Our friends at FanDuel Sportsbook have the Georgia win total at 10.5 wins. The OVER is juiced at -122, so it'll take $122 to make $100 back. The UNDER 10.5 is at +100.
The OVER is easily the better play. We'll touch on how favorable the Bulldogs' schedule is in a bit, but Georgia won't have many issues throughout the year. They're bringing back 65 percent of their total production from last year, including 76 percent on offense.
At the heart of that is Beck, plus the additions of playmakers Trevor Etienne and Colbie Young. Losing Kendall Milton, Ladd McConkey, and Brock Bowers matters, but not nearly as much as it could. This team still thrived in 2023 when the latter two missed time with injuries and will survive with a fresh set of playmakers.
Georgia 2024 Schedule
- Clemson (14)
- Tennessee Tech
- at Kentucky
- at Alabama (5)
- Auburn
- Mississippi State
- at Texas (4)
- Florida
- at Ole Miss (6)
- Tennessee (15)
- UMass
- Georgia Tech
At the surface, Georgia's schedule looks tremendously difficult. It's daunting to face three teams in the top six and two more in the top 15. However, given the differences across their rosters, it's hard to fathom Clemson and Tennessee really being that much of a threat to Georgia.
Maybe I'll eat my words on that, but both matchups are at home, and neither team has the transcendent offensive star needed to swing up against a more talented roster.
The key to hitting the OVER is the trip of road matchups against Alabama, Texas, and Ole Miss. I think Georgia drops one of these games. Ole Miss and Texas seem most likely, as Alabama is under a first-year head coach and has major roster concerns.
Nevertheless, I don't see Georgia losing more than one of these regular-season games. Texas doesn't have the trench talent needed to beat Georgia, and Ole Miss has enough coaching and discipline concerns to lose on its own.
What Could Go Wrong for Georgia?
College football can be crazy, and having three top-road games is unusual. Considering Georgia's defense only returns 55 percent of its defensive production, it's possible the roster isn't quite as impactful as we're used to from a Kirby Smart team. Malaki Starks and Mykel Williams are amazing, but the rest of the unit isn't nearly as proven.
The left side of the offensive line and wide receiver group are also looking to establish itself. I like Young a lot, but Dominic Lovett is the only other known commodity within the receiving unit. Will Beck have the time to throw to less explosive playmakers if their foes have better defenses than what's expected?
It's possible Georgia will lose two games in the 2024 season. We just haven't seen them lose games where they're favored, so it's hard to fathom they'd suddenly drop multiple games like that in one season.
