Bills Mafia is being unfair to TE Dalton Kincaid ahead of 2024 NFL season
I'm a massive, massive fan of Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid. He's great. He has a world of potential. I loved him as a prospect out of Utah, I think he was a terrific draft pick for Buffalo, and he provides a valuable threat to the offense.But man, Bills fans need to slow down […]
I'm a massive, massive fan of Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid. He's great. He has a world of potential. I loved him as a prospect out of Utah, I think he was a terrific draft pick for Buffalo, and he provides a valuable threat to the offense.
But man, Bills fans need to slow down on the Kincaid offseason hype machine and not hold him to the standard of elite production in his second season. That would be unfair.
Let's dive into who Dalton Kincaid is, who he was as a prospect, and what realistic expectations for the tight end could look like.
Dalton Kincaid was a great college tight end
In 2022, Kincaid's final season in college, he amassed 70 receptions for 890 yards and eight touchdowns, with his crowning performance coming in dominant fashion against USC.
October 15, 2022, at home against USC, Kincaid put up a performance for the ages. Utah and USC went back and forth, with the Utes pulling out a 43-42 victory on the back of a monster Kincaid performance. His final stat line? A perfect 16-of-16, 234 yards, and a touchdown.
The USC defense had no answers for Kincaid, who showcased his fluid route running, elite hands, contested catch ability, and body control all day long. That day, Kincaid, like Thanos, was inevitable.
It was a showcase performance that highlighted a great career. Over his final two college seasons, Kincaid had only two drops on 108 catchable targets. His hands, his route running, and his ability at the catch point made him a strong target heading into the 2023 NFL Draft, securing his status as a first round prospect.
Buffalo, looking for an offensive weapon, pulled off a small trade up with the Jacksonville Jaguars to get the 25th overall pick.
“If Dalton was not there, we would have traded back,” Bills GM Brandon Beane said in a post-draft press conference, “We just really liked him and just felt he would be a great fit in our offense. He is a tight end, but he is a receiving tight end. We think he'll pair well with Dawson and give us another target in the middle of the field. So, yeah, when him and Dawson are in the game, you're in '12' [personnel], but it's quasi like '11' anyway. He's not your standard 'Y' tight end. He's going to be flexed out a lot more than necessarily you would do with Dawson.”
They got their man.
Kincaid flashed his potential as a rookie
Kincaid showed up as a rookie, which hasn't always been a trend for tight ends in NFL history. If it wasn't for fellow rookie tight end Sam LaPorta dominating out of the gate with the Detroit Lions, Kincaid's season stats of 73 receptions for 673 yards and 2 touchdowns would have been heralded as a success.
His involvement early, especially with the absence of fellow tight end Dawson Knox, was promising.
Taming the outlook for Kincaid's second season
The Bills fired offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey on November 14th after a Week 10 loss to the Denver Broncos, and along with it, promoted Joe Brady to be the interim offensive coordinator.
In the first 10 games of the season, Kincaid averaged 5.7 targets, 5 receptions, and 43.3 yards per game. After Brady took the reins, Kincaid averaged 5.7 targets, 4 receptions, and 40.4 yards per game.
The narrative that Kincaid blew up after Brady took over is unfounded, and that stretch included two games that Knox was inactive for, and two games that Knox did not see a target.
In Knox's first game back from injury in Week 14, Kincaid had his only game of the season that he was held without a catch.
Going into 2024, Brady's system could look very different with an entire offseason to plan and implement, and Kincaid thrives on intermediate and downfield looks. Now with Stefon Diggs no longer on the roster, it's certainly fair to hope, and expect, bigger things from Kincaid in his second season, but expecting him to become one of the league's most highly-targeted tight ends and solidify himself as a true superstar shouldn't be the benchmark of a successful season to which Bills Mafia holds him.
Is it possible? Certainly. He's a talented weapon that has the trust of Josh Allen. Should Bills fans expect elite production to the point of disappointment if it doesn't happen? Absolutely not.
