San Francisco 49ers All-Pro Brandon Aiyuk is more than deserving of beating Amon-Ra St. Brown's contract
With Brandon Aiyuk absent from San Francisco 49ers OTAs, there's clearly been little progress in talks between the two parties over a long-term contract extension for the All-Pro wide receiver. But a recent report did provide more insight into what he is looking for, though it hardly came as much of a surprise. ESPN's Jeremy […]
With Brandon Aiyuk absent from San Francisco 49ers OTAs, there's clearly been little progress in talks between the two parties over a long-term contract extension for the All-Pro wide receiver.
But a recent report did provide more insight into what he is looking for, though it hardly came as much of a surprise.
ESPN's Jeremy Fowler said on 'NFL Live' that Aiyuk is using Detroit Lions wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown's, four-year extension, which carries an average annual value of $28 million, as his "benchmark" in those talks.
"I was told the benchmark here is Amon-Ra St. Brown," Fowler said. "He got $28 million a year on a four-year from Detroit. The goal appears to be to try to beat that. He doesn't have to be the highest paid in the league, but he's done enough and he's accomplished enough in that offense to where he is probably going to need to be at that number or higher."
St. Brown is only 24, while Aiyuk is 26, and the Lions star had the edge in almost every counting stat last season. He had more catches, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns. St. Brown entered the league in 2021, a year after Aiyuk was drafted in the first round by the Niners. Over the course of his three seasons in the NFL, St. Brown has 3,588 receiving yards and 21 touchdowns. Across that same span, Aiyuk has 3,183 yards and 20 touchdowns.
The area where Aiyuk has had the edge, both last season and overall since St. Brown came into the league is in yards per reception. Aiyuk averaged 17.9 yards per catch to St. Brown's 12.7 in 2023. Since 2021, Aiyuk has averaged 15.2 yards per catch, the seventh-most in the NFL. St. Brown has averaged 11.4 for his career.
Those big differences are borne out in the efficiency metrics, in which Aiyuk has performed superbly over his successive 1,000-yard seasons in 2022 and 2023.
Aiyuk leads all pass catchers in Expected Points Added per play among players with at least 100 plays over the last two seasons, per nflindex.com. St. Brown sits 12th on that list, illustrating the difference in explosive plays to which the gap in yards per reception also points.
But Aiyuk has also fared better in Success Rate over that two-season period. His advantage is less significant, with Aiyuk ranking third among all pass-catchers and St. Brown ninth, but it is a gap he and his team can use as evidence as to why he deserves more than St. Brown.
Aiyuk has been the more explosive receiver than St. Brown in the last two seasons and has also had his receiving plays gain the required yardage more often. Now established as Brock Purdy's favorite target, it's easy to see a world in which one of the best route-runners in the NFL produces even more impressive production and maintains his tremendous efficiency in 2024.
In short, Aiyuk has a strong case for receiving more money than St. Brown and the 49ers would probably be wise to give him it. With more receiver deals for the likes of Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb and Ja'Marr Chase on the horizon and Aiyuk in an excellent spot to put up numbers that would further increase his price next year should he play on his fifth-year option, it is in the 49ers' best interests to acquiesce to his demands in the most team-friendly way possible.
Paying Aiyuk over $28 million a year might not be overly appetizing for a 49ers franchise that has to pay Purdy next offseason but, with the movement that is still to come on the market, the odds are that their top receiver would make such a contract look very reasonable in a hurry.
The Niners have a lot of leverage, but paying Aiyuk at the level he wants now would help them avoid a potentially much more difficult negotiation next offseason.
