Titans 2024 NFL Draft Breakdown: The hit rate on Top-10 wide receivers in the last 10 drafts
The NFL Draft is a gamble in itself, however picking inside the top 10 is typically where teams can find a player that changes the entire trajectory of their franchise. While it's much easier to find success near the top of the draft, no one prospect is ever guaranteed to live up to their draft […]
The NFL Draft is a gamble in itself, however picking inside the top 10 is typically where teams can find a player that changes the entire trajectory of their franchise. While it's much easier to find success near the top of the draft, no one prospect is ever guaranteed to live up to their draft slot.
Holding onto the No. 7 overall pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, it wouldn't shock anybody to see the Tennessee Titans take a wideout early on. Tennessee hired an offensive-minded head coach in Brian Callahan, who is expected to take the Titans into a new era.
With that being said, the Titans are no stranger to draft blunders. But when it comes to drafting a receiver inside the top 10, it's important to understand the history behind the process.
In the last 10 draft classes a total of 12 wide receivers have been selected within the first 10 picks. Below is a breakdown of how these players panned out by the year.
By The Numbers
2023: No wide receivers selected within the first 10 picks.
2022: Drake London (8th overall) & Garrett Wilson (10th overall)
Hits: Garrett Wilson
Misses: None
Jury Still Out: Drake London
Breakdown: Through two seasons Garrett Wilson already looks like a stud for years to come. His ceiling is that of an All-Pro caliber wideout, especially with a healthy Aaron Rodgers throwing the football to him. London hasn't had quarterback play conducive to success as a receiver. However, he has yet to accumulate over 905 receiving yards and four touchdowns in a single season. There is still time for London to break out, but he hasn't lived up to his 8th overall draft slot up to this point.
2021: Ja'Marr Chase (5th overall), Jaylen Waddle (6th overall), Devonta Smith (10th overall)
Hits: Ja'Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, Devonta Smith
Misses: None
Breakdown: The trio has combined for eight 1,000-yard seasons and appear to be the future of the position.
2020: No wide receivers selected within the first 10 picks.
2019: No wide receivers selected within the first 10 picks.
2018: No wide receivers selected within the first 10 picks.
2017: Corey Davis (5th overall), Mike Williams (7th overall), John Ross (9th overall)
Hits: Mike Williams
Misses: Corey Davis, John Ross
Breakdown: It's easy to go back and forth on Williams. He has notched two 1,000-yard seasons and earned a second contract with the Chargers. However, he played second fiddle to Keenan Allen for the entirety of his time with the team and signed with the New York Jets this offseason. Davis had a disappointing tenure with the Titans while John Ross started just 21 games in his five-year career.
2016: No wide receivers selected within the first 10 picks.
2015: Amari Cooper (4th overall), Kevin White (7th overall)
Hits: Amari Cooper
Misses: Kevin White
Breakdown: This one doesn't need much of an explanation.
2014: Sammy Watkins (4th overall), Mike Evans (7th overall)
Hits: Mike Evans
Misses: Sammy Watkins
Breakdown: Watkins managed to play nine seasons in the NFL and hoisted the Lombardi Trophy once as a member of the Kansas City Chiefs. With that being said, his best two seasons came in his first two years, which weren't good enough to land him in a Pro Bowl. Evans, on the other hand, has had 10 consecutive seasons of at least 1,000 receiving yards and is on his way to a gold jacket.
What percentage of top-10 WRs are considered hits?
Of the 12 wideouts discussed above seven of them played well enough to be considered hits. That comes out to just a tick above a 58% hit rate, which is surprisingly close to a toss up.
In Conclusion
The Titans have a difficult decision ahead of them. Even if a player like Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, or Rome Odunze is available when the Titans are on the clock, it doesn't mean any of those three are guaranteed to revamp the team's offense.
Teams previously fell for the speed trap with burners like Ross and White, but the size and athleticism of Watkins and Davis prove that there is no special recipe for drafting a receiver.
The good news for Titans fans is that the team isn't totally dependent on a rookie receiver to come in and make an immediate impact. It would obviously be a welcomed sight, but the addition of DeAndre Hopkins a season ago, along with Calvin Ridley in March puts the team in a position to be much more dangerous in the passing game come 2024.
