Packers mailbag: AJ Dillon’s career, Kenny Clark’s future, and week 1 game in Brazil
Busy week for the Green Bay Packers, with a lot of draft talk and the news that they are going to Brazil in week 1. So let's wrap it up with our weekly mailbag. That's interesting because I don't think AJ Dillon's performance has been underwhelming considering what his draft profile indicated. However, it is […]
Busy week for the Green Bay Packers, with a lot of draft talk and the news that they are going to Brazil in week 1. So let's wrap it up with our weekly mailbag.
That's interesting because I don't think AJ Dillon's performance has been underwhelming considering what his draft profile indicated. However, it is disappointing taking into consideration how high the Packers drafted him, which is a good example that reaching for players based on the consensus big board is usually a bad idea.
The 2020 running back class was good, with prospects like Jonathan Taylor, D'Andre Swift, and JK Dobbins. Maybe the Packers made up their minds about getting one early, especially after there was a run on wide receivers in the second round before their pick.
And while Dillon's career has not been what the Packers hoped for, he is still the best running back who was on the board when Green Bay made that decision.
Dillon got drafted with the 62nd overall pick, and he was the 115th draft prospect on the consensus big board. Wouldn't you be more comfortable with that decision in the fourth round?
Between 62 and 115, the running backs selected were Antonio Gibson, Ke'Shawn Vaughn, Lynn Bowden (WR/RB hybrid), Zack Moss, Darrynton Evans, and Joshua Kelley. You can argue that Moss is better, but it's not a given.
And after 115, the options were La'Mical Perine, Anthony McFarland Jr., DeeJay Dallas, Jason Huntley, Eno Benjamin, Raymond Calais, Malcolm Perry, James Robinson (UDFA). It was simply not a great running back class in terms of depth, and the Packers reached projecting a future need because both Aaron Jones and Jamaal Williams would be free agents in 2021.
Ideally, the Packers would love to keep both, especially Kenny Clark. But right now, considering Preston Smith is under contract through 2026, he is the answer to your question.
Preston's projected cap hit in 2025 is $17.5 million, which is an affordable number for an edge rusher unless Smith falls off a cliff.
I wrote more about Kenny Clark earlier this week, and the defensive tackle market has gone crazy. If the Packers are able to extend him for something closer to Derrick Brown's deal with the Carolina Panthers, around $24 million, that's more appealing. But it gets closer to Christian Wilkins' contract with the Las Vegas Raiders, $28.5 million, that starts to get concerning for a player entering his third deal in the league.
Henry Pearson showed good things, especially as a blocker on the move. Josiah Deguara signed a veteran minimum deal with the Jacksonville Jaguars, so the decision to let him leave was not based on money.
And I do think what the Packers foresee for Pearson was a factor in that. He is younger and will have at least three more years under a cheap contract if Green Bay wants.
The Packers have made a concerted effort to get younger players when possible, and Pearson can be as good or better than Deguara and fits that profile.
It's a direct, easy 90-minute flight from Porto Alegre to São Paulo, so I fully expect to make it. It's basically a trip from Green Bay to Nashville.
There's a saying that NFL GMs are like MLB hitters: if they have a 30% success rate, they're going to the Hall of Famer. While that's a half-joke, several aspects factor in, like the number of top 100 picks and total picks, and the alignment between front office and coaching staff.
That's the reason why it's so important to have a high number of total selections and why I'm a big advocate for always trading down, never trading up unless it's for a quarterback.
If you have five, six total picks, it's almost impossible to get more than two impactful players. Meanwhile, the Packers have had 11, 13 per year, and that's how they can find five, six NFL players and two or three high-impact pieces. Team trade down, let's go.
I have been to São Paulo just twice, so I'm not a big connoisseur of the city's food scene. However, São Paulo is famous for having the best pizza in Brazil, you'll certainly find excellent places to eat. And please, google (and do not eat) a food called Cuscuz paulista. That's rough.
Packers make another surprising move at running back
It’s an unusual move in the NFL world
