The Denver Broncos have an obvious decision when it comes to a first round trade in the 2024 NFL Draft
The Denver Broncos are going through an exodus for an offseason, as many big names and key players have departed elsewhere over the last few weeks. That, on top of a lack of major draft capital and cap space, leaves many thinking the Broncos are headed for the dreaded rebuild. Especially when considering Jarrett Stidham and […]
The Denver Broncos are going through an exodus for an offseason, as many big names and key players have departed elsewhere over the last few weeks.
That, on top of a lack of major draft capital and cap space, leaves many thinking the Broncos are headed for the dreaded rebuild. Especially when considering Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci are the only quarterbacks on the roster.
Since releasing Wilson in early March, the Broncos have not added another quarterback to a roster that includes veterans Jarrett Stidham and Ben DiNucci, who have made just five NFL starts between them. – Nick Kosmider, The Athletic
It's obviously an extremely far cry from where the franchise thought it would be, at this point, when it traded for Russell Wilson just two calendar years ago.
So, naturally, Broncos fans are looking for any kind of spark during what is very likely to be a benign offseason. And sure enough, Broncos Sean Payton provided said spark when he said there was a "realistic" chance the team could move up from No. 12 in the 2024 NFL Draft.
It makes sense for the Broncos to move up and get their guy, but at the same time, it's a much better idea for Denver to trade back in this year's draft.
Broncos are in a spot where they can't mortgage the future, again
The Broncos already sold out once in order to bring in the QB that could lead them back to the playoffs and that turned out to be an unmitigated disaster. You can't operate scared and no team should, but the Broncos are simply not in the position to double-down on another signal-caller in 2024.
Let's go back to the past, real quick. The Broncos missed out on the ninth overall pick, Nos. 40 and 37 in the second round, and the fifth overall pick in 2023 because of the Wilson trade. That's a top-5, top-10, and two top-40 selections. The Seattle Seahawks were able to nab four solid players and two high-quality starters with the picks.
Moving up to No. 4 -or even No. 3- in order to get a quarterback would be extremely expensive. One only needs to go back to last year's draft to find a similar comparison in order to see what it could cost – and that was the Houston Texans' decision to move up from No. 12 to No. 3 in order to draft Will Anderson.
The trade went down as follows:
Cardinals receive: 12th overall pick and 33rd overall pick in 2023 NFL Draft, first- and third-round picks in 2024
Texans receive: No. 3 overall pick and 105th overall pick (fourth round) in the 2023 NFL Draft
The Broncos don't even have a second-rounder to pull this off, so they'd most likely have to give up the 12th pick, their 2023 third-rounder, a 2025 first and then a 2025 second. Essentially, it'd be the inverse of last year's trade when it comes to the second- and third-round picks.
This would leave the team in awful spot when it comes to building sustainable success, like the goal is supposed to be. And while the Broncos currently have more than $88 million in 2025 cap space, they only have 28 rostered players. Meaning, that money will disappear, quick.
Plus, we all know the true key to building sustainable success is by winning the draft as much as possible. Limiting your true options to free agency is a very risky gamble that can not only quickly blow up in one's face – it can sink a team in the long-term, too.
Final word
Lastly and most obviously, the Broncos should trade back if they do want to make a move in this year's draft. The QB class is arguably the deepest it has ever been in terms of starting talent potential. There are about 6-7 guys who could be solid starters in the NFL and they'll be available during the first 45 picks, easily.
It makes a ton of sense for the Broncos and they could still nab either a Michael Penix Jr. or Bo Nix at, let's say, 22 if they traded with the Philadelphia Eagles. Both guys are seen as potential starters at the NFL level and one could certainly become the Broncos QB for the next decade.
The Eagles have made some form of a first-round trade each of the last three years and two of those trades were moves up the board. They also have two second-rounders, so the draft capital is there for a move up.
A trade back to 22 would net a pretty solid haul, as well. One only has travel back to 2021 to find a solid comparison in the Vikings-Jets trade. The Jets traded up from No. 23 to No. 14 in order to select Alijah Vera-Tucker. On top of the 14th pick, the Vikings also sent a fourth-rounder. In return, they received the 23rd overall pick and two third-rounders in the 2021 NFL Draft.
It's fair to think Denver would get one of the Eagles' second-rounders and then a Day 3 pick in the deal. The extra second-rounder would really come in handy and the Broncos wouldn't have to worry, too much, about missing out on a QB because the position isn't a glaring need for the teams picking 13-21. The Raiders are really the only ones who could swipe someone and even then it may not be the best move for them at 13, depending on who's there, of course.
It just makes way too much sense for the Broncos to move back, not up. Hopefully they see it the same way.
