Predicting the 2024 records and end of season rankings for the AFC South

The AFC South is no longer the weakest division in the NFL, which many believed it to be for quite some time. All four teams have real playoff aspirations ahead of the 2024 season. And I think it'll be a tougher race for the division crown than people realize in 2024. Below, I give my official record […]

Destin Adams — NFL News Writer
Add as preferred source on Google
Jan 6, 2024; Indianapolis, Indiana, USA; Houston Texans head coach DeMeco Ryans shares an embrace with Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen after a game at Lucas Oil Stadium.
Marc Lebryk-USA TODAY Sports

The AFC South is no longer the weakest division in the NFL, which many believed it to be for quite some time. 

All four teams have real playoff aspirations ahead of the 2024 season. And I think it'll be a tougher race for the division crown than people realize in 2024. 

Below, I give my official record prediction for all four teams in the AFC South and how they will finish inside the division. 

AFC South 2024 Record Predictions

1. Indianapolis Colts (11-6) 

The Colts were what felt like a single play away from making the playoffs and winning the AFC South. But instead, they finished third in the division with a 9-8 record in 2023. In 2024, the Colts are expecting big things from second-year QB Anthony Richardson, who will be returning from a season-ending shoulder injury that stole most of his rookie season. This offseason, the Colts prioritized retaining their own free agents, which led to them not losing a single projected starter on their roster. 

Their biggest loss, in fact, was their backup QB Gardner Minshew, who took over for Ricahrson after the injury. I think that level of continuity on their roster is invaluable. And I have high expectations for their strong 2024 draft class, including edge rusher Laiatu Latu and WR Adonai Mitchell, who will play important roles this season. I know they aren't the popular pick to win the division, but I think they are going to shock a lot of people and become one of the top teams in the AFC and win their first AFC South crown since 2014. 

2. Houston Texans (10-7) 

The Texans had a busy offseason, which included them trading for WR Stefon Diggs and signing edge rusher Danielle Hunter in free agency. These were big signs of the team pushing their chips in after seeing CJ Stroud have one of the best rookie seasons the NFL has ever seen, leading the Texans to win the AFC South in 2023. The Texans are the clear favorites entering the 2024 season to win the division, and while I'm not projecting them to do that here, I do think they will lock up a wildcard spot in a stacked AFC. 

The Colts and Texans will kick off the 2024 season just how they ended their regular season last year, with the two facing off in Lucas Oil Stadium. It may not be a win-or-go-home game like Week 18 of 2023 was, but I think the winner of that game could end up with the upper hand on what I expect to be a tight race for the top spot in the AFC South. And the two have had their fair share of back and forth this offseason, already building up the hype and anticipation for their Week 1 matchup. 

3. Jacksonville Jaguars (10-7)

There's no better word to describe the Jaguars' second half of the 2023 season than calling it a collapse. They lost five of their last six, including their Week 18 loss to the Titans. It was a game that, if they had won, they not only would have been in the playoffs but would have won the AFC South. And to add insult to injury, the Titans also stole the Jaguars' top in-house free agent this offseason, Calvin Ridley. But they were able to take care of the most important off-season task by extending QB Trevor Lawerence. 

I think the Jaguars will rebound in 2024, but I think the Colts and Texans have improved to level the playing field in the division as opposed to 2023, where the Jaguars were the clear favorites. I think the AFC South is good enough to potentially have three playoff teams, and if the Jaguars are able to produce three ten or more-win teams like I'm projecting here, they just might do it. 

4. Tennessee Titans (8-9) 

I have the Titans ending fourth in the AFC South, which would be the only team repeating their 2023 standing. But the Titans had a great offseason, which included them signing Calvin Ridley in free agency and trading for former Kansas City Chiefs CB L'Jarius Sneed. They also shocked the NFL by firing successful head coach Mike Vrable and went with the offensive-minded head coach Brian Callahan. I think there's a lot to like on their roster throughout.

A young high, upside QB in Will Levis who had plenty of flashes last season, along with a much improved secondary, which was their clear weakest link on the defensive side of the ball. Most importantly, they invested a lot of resources in fixing their offensive line, which was abysmal in 2023. They landed offensive line guru Bill Callahan, who is the father of new head coach Brian Callahan, to take over the team's offensive line. The team also used the seventh pick in the 2024 NFL Draft on Alabama offensive tackle JC Latham. Which could be crucial for Levis to have a successful sophomore season in Tennessee.

In the end, I think the Titans have more holes throughout their roster than the rest of the AFC South, and the amount of change they went through this offseason could lead to them starting out slower than they would like. However, improving from their six wins in 2023 to eight wins here would be a win for the Titans as they continue to build around Levis and their new offensive coaching staff. 

Related Articles