Where did first round 2024 NFL Draft prospects rank when they were high school football recruits?
The path to the NFL Draft is an arduous one no matter who you are. That much is undeniable. However, where football players begin their college career–in many cases largely based on their high school football recruiting pedigree–can certainly help predict which players are going to one day make it to the NFL. Especially when […]
The path to the NFL Draft is an arduous one no matter who you are. That much is undeniable. However, where football players begin their college career–in many cases largely based on their high school football recruiting pedigree–can certainly help predict which players are going to one day make it to the NFL. Especially when we're talking about the first round of the NFL Draft. But before we dive into first round 2024 NFL Draft prospects by their high school recruiting pedigree, let's talk through what it typically means.
High School Football Recruiting Stars
If you're unfamiliar with high school football recruiting and how it works, the ranking system (at it's base) is rather simple. In every recruiting class there are three types of grades a high school football player can receive from the recruiting services (247Sports, On3, Rivals, and ESPN) that indicate they should have some level of post-high school success:
- 5 stars (projected future first round NFL Draft picks)
- 4 stars (projected potential future NFL Draft picks)
- 3 stars (projected potential college football starters)
If a player receives two or zero stars then not much is expected of them at all. In most cases, four and five star recruits at top programs are given much more significant and earlier opportunities to succeed in college. Three stars can often rise through the ranks and prove themselves, but it's not often as clear a path at many schools. So in short, anyone rated as a three star or below is somewhat of an "underdog" to make it to the NFL from the start.
"But wasn't Patrick Mahomes a three star? And aren't most NFL rosters littered with three stars?"
Yes! And there's a simple reason for that. There are way more three stars in every recruiting class than there are fours and fives. To keep the math simple, each recruiting class looks something like this:
- 5 Stars: 40
- 4 Stars: 400
- 3 Stars: 2000
Each recruiting service has their own rankings of players, so there's a bit of disagreement as to who the "real" five stars are at the top. But, to simplify things, just know there's usually around 40 players who have multiple services ranking them as five stars. Same story with three and four stars, except there are usually somewhere around 400 fours and 2000 threes in each class. Beyond that, there are about 250,000 other graduating high school football players rated with two or zero stars. So yes, that means there are about 50 times more three stars out there than five stars competing to make it to the NFL.
Last year after the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft I posted about the high school recruiting pedigree of the first round selections:
11 five stars. 10 four stars. 8 three stars. Just two players rated with two stars or below. That was a bit heavier on the high pedigree side than usual, but you can see how much high school football recruiting can predict future first round draft capital. And I won't get into all the numbers, but if you want to see a more complex breakdown of just how much recruiting pedigree matters you can check out this thread I made a couple years back breaking it down in more detail here:
Or! We can just dive right into the top first round NFL Draft prospects for this class by their high school recruit star ratings. This list below of the forty most likely first round NFL Draft prospects is based on the last 400+ mock drafts of data. All of the star ratings are based on the 247Sports Composite that combines all major recruiting services into one score. Enjoy!
Five Star Recruit First Round NFL Draft Prospects
- Caleb Williams, QB USC
- J.J. McCarthy, QB Michigan
- Dallas Turner, EDGE Alabama
- JC Latham, OT Alabama
- Bo Nix, QB Oregon
- Amarius Mims, OT Georgia
- Kool-Aid McKinstry, CB Alabama
Caleb Williams was the highest rated quarterback recruit in the 2021 recruiting class (until current Texas starting QB Quinn Ewers reclassified into it a year early). J.J. McCarthy wasn't rated too far behind, as he ranked 25th in the entire class overall.
Alabama's recruiting class was absolutely absurd that year. They had three more five stars on top of Dallas Turner, JC Latham, and Kool-Aid McKinstry too, but those players didn't exactly "hit" in college.
Amarius Mims was in that same class too as Georgia's top overall recruit.
Bo Nix is the only former five star in this group who didn't declare for the NFL Draft early. He actually began as a five star at Auburn back in 2019.
Four Star Recruit First Round NFL Draft Prospects
- Jayden Daniels, QB LSU (fringe 5 star)
- Drake Maye, QB North Carolina
- Marvin Harrison Jr., WR Ohio State
- Malik Nabers, WR LSU
- Joe Alt, OT Notre Dame
- Rome Odunze, WR Washington
- Brock Bowers, TE Georgia
- Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT Penn State
- Byron Murphy II, DL Texas
- Terrion Arnold, CB Alabama (fringe 5 star)
- Laiatu Latu, EDGE UCLA
- Troy Fautanu, OT Washington
- Brian Thomas Jr., WR LSU
- Cooper DeJean, CB Iowa
- Nate Wiggins, CB Clemson
- Chop Robinson, EDGE Penn State (fringe 5 star)
- Adonai Mitchell, WR Texas
- Jackson Powers-Johnson, C Oregon
- Xavier Worthy, WR Texas
- Kingsley Suamataia, OT BYU (fringe 5 star)
- Troy Franklin, WR Oregon
This is the most stacked set of potential first round selection four star recruits in recent memory. Half the first round may be former four star players this year.
Jayden Daniels, Terrion Arnold, Chop Robinson, and Kingsley Suamataia were all actually rated as a five star by at least one service or just on the outside looking in. All of them were considered to be wildly special players even coming into college.
Marvin Harrison Jr. was a four star, but was surprisingly rated outside the top 100 by multiple recruiting services. He wasn't even supposed to be the best Ohio State wide receiver in his class.
Brock Bowers and Xavier Worthy were both top 100 recruits and were garnering real "potential breakout" noise from their teammates well before their incredible true freshman seasons even began.
Three Star Recruit First Round NFL Draft Prospects
- Taliese Fuaga, OT Oregon State
- Quinyon Mitchell, CB Toledo
- Michael Penix Jr., QB Washington
- Graham Barton, OL Duke
- Jer'Zhan Newton, DL Illinois
- Tyler Guyton, OT Oklahoma
- Darius Robinson, DL Missouri
- Jordan Morgan, OT Arizona
- Ladd McConkey, WR Georgia
- Xavier Legette, WR South Carolina
- Zach Frazier, C West Virginia
Now we get to the "underdogs" section.
Quinyon Mitchell is the only one on the entire list that didn't play for a power conference school. He should be everyone's favorite underdog prospect in this draft. Good on him for not abandoning his program to transfer up in a college football landscape where that's easier than ever.
It's easy to notice that this list has several offensive lineman on it. This is actually a trend in recruiting versus NFL Draft capital. Quite often the three stars (or below) that hit are offensive line prospects. Why is that? The simplest answer is that the bodies of offensive lineman quite often change and develop far more significantly than those playing other positions in college. Recruiting services have to do a lot more projecting with offensive line prospects coming out of high school.
Graham Barton is the versatile offensive lineman everyone should hope their team selects in the 2024 NFL Draft
Former Duke OT that will succeed wherever he’s drafted
Zero Star Recruit First Round NFL Draft Prospects
- Jared Verse, EDGE Florida State
The longest of long shots who could see first round NFL Draft capital in this class was surprisingly Jared Verse, from Florida State.
"Wait, an 'underdog' and he played for Florida State football?"
Yes, because he didn't start there. Jared Verse was completely overlooked in the high school football recruiting process earning zero stars from the recruiting services. That left him to pursue an opportunity with the Albany Great Danes at the FCS level of college football.
After he dominated against FCS level competition and even mixed it up against a few FBS football programs in 2021 top teams started to take notice. He eventually transferred to Florida State where he almost immediately gained first round NFL Draft hype thanks to his dominant on-field play.
Though he may not feel like an underdog now at 6'4", 247 pounds with a 92nd percentile athletic composite score, the odds he overcame to reach the first round of the NFL Draft are unbelievable. He will almost assuredly be the only zero star recruit selected in round one this year.
Enjoy the 2024 NFL Draft! Be looking for more NFL Draft and College Football coverage here at A to Z Sports all year long! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!
And if you want to see some highlights from Jared Verse when he was destroying FCS football players at Albany you can check out this video below!
