J.J. McCarthy trending towards becoming the New York Giants' new franchise quarterback as 2024 NFL Draft nears
The NFL Draft process is full ups and downs, leaks and rumors. Every single week from January to April it seems there's a new hot NFL Draft rumor floating, but sometimes truth is hidden amidst all the noise. This week's potential truth? J.J. McCarthy to the New York Giants. Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report reported […]
The NFL Draft process is full ups and downs, leaks and rumors. Every single week from January to April it seems there's a new hot NFL Draft rumor floating, but sometimes truth is hidden amidst all the noise. This week's potential truth? J.J. McCarthy to the New York Giants.
Jordan Schultz of Bleacher Report reported Tuesday that former Michigan QB and rising first round NFL Draft prospect J.J. McCarthy met with Giants leadership last week for dinner and a tour of the facility. Things had already been heating up in the direction of McCarthy going top six in the NFL Draft this past week, but now the betting markets have gone wildly in that direction.
As of this writing, every major sports book has shifted J.J. McCarthy's most likely selection slot to pick six overall (where the Giants are currently situated). One book slating his odds of going at exactly sixth overall well above 20% probability! That's some wild confidence from the betting markets that McCarthy is going to go at pick six. How did we get here so quickly with McCarthy? And could he really be the Giants franchise quarterback selected at six?
J.J. McCarthy's Rise to Early First Round
J.J. McCarthy's rise up NFL Draft boards really began after Senior Bowl week where many scouts and media members that I talked to left thoroughly unimpressed by Bo Nix and Michael Penix. McCarthy shifted from "a potential first round pick" in many conversations I had to "the odds-on favorite to be selected by the Minnesota Vikings" in a matter of days.
The initial noise suggested the Vikings would simply select him at pick 11. But after Russell Wilson was moved to the Steelers there were all of a sudden two teams situated directly behind the Vikings (Broncos and Raiders) who could be looking to trade up for McCarthy.
Shortly after reports emerged that the Cardinals, Chargers, and Giants could be potential trade partners for one of those other three franchises to move up the Vikings made their trade with the Texans to acquire pick 23 overall. The Vikings clearly positioning themselves to trade up and "get their guy" in the early first round.
But what pick will the Vikings trade up to? And what if they go after Drake Maye instead? Josh McCown did coach Drake Maye when he was in high school.
J.J. McCarthy and the New York Giants
In just the past week Jayden Daniels has become the odds-on favorite to go the Commanders at pick two, with Drake Maye likely going third (to the Patriots or Vikings via trade-up). McCarthy has risen to a point at which 45% of his implied probability according to sports books lives between picks four and six. Pick six being his most likely landing spot.
Now that it's clear Giants have been doing their homework on McCarthy this past week, will they select McCarthy at six? Or will they be the team the Vikings trade up with to get their signal caller of the future?
Just last week news surfaced via an interview with Seahawks general manager John Schneider that the Giants had made it clear to Drew Lock he would potentially be competing for the starting job with Daniel Jones this season. Lock backed off that assertion shortly after, but was likely just simply instructed to do so by a Giants organization who so badly wants to portray that they have any hope remaining in Jones. They should not.
Jones was indefensibly bad last season, throwing two touchdowns to six interceptions and taking 30 sacks in less than six full games. He was already bad before last year, but Daniel Jones was perhaps the worst starter in the league in 2023. The Giants have an easy out in Jones' contract after this season. Selecting his replacement for 2024 and beyond in this draft would be a great idea.
It's highly likely Caleb Williams, Jayden Daniels, and Drake Maye are already off the board with two of the three top wide receivers taken when the Giants come up at pick six. That would leave them to choose between a receiver (a big need), J.J. McCarthy, or a trade down with the Vikings.
As of today, multiple sports books have McCarthy ranging from 21% to 29% odds to be the exact player taken by the Giants. That may not sound high, but its higher than any other available to bet on (as of this writing) for the Giants' pick right now. Today's news and recent betting line movement is just one snapshot, and things will change between now and the end of April, but as of today one thing seems clear. J.J. MCarthy is trending towards becoming the New York Giants franchise quarterback of the future.
