Bold Predictions for the 2023 Indianapolis Colts

Football fans everywhere have been eagerly waiting for the NFL's regular season to begin.  And we are now a week away from the Indianapolis Colts kicking off their 2023 season at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars.  So, as we prepare for the Colts season, it felt like a good time to share some bold predictions […]

Destin Adams NFL News Writer
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Aug 24, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) passes the ball against the Philadelphia Eagles during the second quarter at Lincoln Financial Field.

Football fans everywhere have been eagerly waiting for the NFL's regular season to begin. 

And we are now a week away from the Indianapolis Colts kicking off their 2023 season at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars. 

So, as we prepare for the Colts season, it felt like a good time to share some bold predictions I believe will happen this season surrounding the team. 

Bold Predictions: 

The Most Sacks of the Ballard era

Dec 17, 2022; Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA; Indianapolis Colts defensive end Dayo Odeyingbo (54) sacks Minnesota Vikings quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) during the second quarter at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

During the Chris Ballard era, the Colts haven’t been able to find a consistent pass rush. The most total sacks in a season during his time as the team’s GM came last year with 44, which was tied for the 6th most in the NFL. 

  • 2017: 25 sacks, 2nd least in the NFL 
  • 2018: 38 sacks, Tied for 9th most in the NFL 
  • 2019: 41 sacks, Tied for 11th most in the NFL
  • 2020: 40 sacks, Tied for 10th most in the NFL 
  • 2021: 33 sacks, Tied for 6th least in the NFL 
  • 2022: 44 sacks, Tied for 6th most in the NFL 

I believe the current defensive line built by Ballard and Co. is the best of his tenure. Players who will be key contributors to the team's pass rush being DeForest Buckner, Kwity Paye, Samson Ebukam, and a player I believe is going to explode this year Dayo Odeyingbo. 

I am predicting not only that this group will surpass the highest sack number in the Ballard era of 44, but I believe the unit will reach the 50 mark. 

3 different players lead the team in catches, yards, and TDs

With new offensive-minded head coach and play caller Shane Steichen and rookie QB Anthony Richardson leading the unit, all eyes will be on the team's passing game. 

I predict that three different players will lead the team in receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns. 

Receptions:

Throughout training camp, we've seen multiple offensive weapons build strong connections; one in particular has looked like a security blanket for the young QB. That player is TE Kylen Granson. Granson has appeared to be a player that Richardson is comfortable targeting when he needs a 1st down. And I believe that connection will result in Granson hauling in a career-high in reception and leading the team in that category. 

Receiving Yards:

A special dynamic we saw all training camp was Anthony Richardson and Alec Pierce's deep ball connection. The duo combined for the loudest cheers all training camp as Richardson uncorked the deep ball to find Pierce for big play after big play. The preseason also showed that connection, although Pierce struggled to haul those catches in. I believe the regular season will show the training camp connection we saw on the field as well and will lead to Pierce leading the team in receiving yards. 

Receiving Touchdowns: 

Some may be shocked that this player hasn't been mentioned yet, but don't worry, it's Michael Pittman Jr.'s turn now. The part of Pittman Jr.'s training camp that stood out to me came from watching both days of joint practice against the Chicago Bears. Richardson and Pittman Jr. seemed so in sync during red zone work, where Pittman Jr. was able to win multiple reps. I believe this element will be where Pittman Jr. shines in 2023. I think Steichen's offense will pair his past success of crossing routes and sideline jump balls with an uptick in red zone touchdowns, which will lead to him leading the team in receiving touchdowns this season. 

A more competitive team than people realize

Indianapolis Colts head coach Shane Steichen talks with media Tuesday, Aug. 15, 2023, after training camp at Grand Park Sports Campus in Westfield, Indiana. Steichen took the opportunity to announce Anthony Richardson as the starting quarterback ahead of Gardner Minshew.
Mykal McEldowney/IndyStar / USA TODAY NETWORK

It seems that the overall consensus around the league is that the Colts will find themselves at the bottom of the league standings come the end of the year. Many projected win totals being thrown around by national outlets fall in the 3-4 win mark. 

This led me to look into the Colts 2023 schedule to see if I agree with those outlets. So, below is the team's upcoming schedule.

Colts 2023 Schedule:

Week 1: Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 2: @ Houston Texans

Week 3: @ Baltimore Ravens

Week 4: Vs. Los Angeles Rams

Week 5: Vs. Tennesee Titans

Week 6: @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Week 7: Vs. Cleveland Browns

Week 8: Vs. New Orleans Saints

Week 9: @ Carolina Panthers 

Week 10: @ New England Patriots (In Germany) 

Week 11: Bye Week

Week 12: Vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Week 13: @ Tennesee Titans

Week 14: @ Cincinnati Bengals

Week 15: Vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Week 16: @ Atlanta Falcons

Week 17: Vs. Las Vegas Raiders 

Week 18: Vs. Houston Texans

Now that the full schedule can be seen above, here are my reasons for disagreeing with the 3-4 win predictions being floated around: 

Lack of top-tier QB opponents

Throughout the entire schedule, only three teams currently have QBs that I believe are among the top 10 in the NFL. Those teams are the Bengals (Joe Burrow), the Jaguars (Trevor Lawerence), and the Ravens (Lamar Jackson). 

After that group of QBs, the projected starters the Colts are slated to face off with have more questions surrounding them. Just to list them all out, here are the other projected QBs on the Colts schedule: 

  • CJ Stroud (Rookie)
  • Matthew Stafford (returning from injury)
  • Ryan Tannehill 
  • Deshaun Watson 
  • Derek Carr
  • Bryce Young (Rookie)
  • Mac Jones
  • Baker Mayfield
  • Kenny Pickett
  • Desmond Ridder
  • Jimmy Garoppolo

With that many questionable QB matchups on the schedule, I have a hard time not seeing the Colts at least having a fighting chance in those games. 

Last Years Disaster Season:

Last year, the Colts had everything that could go wrong go wrong. But don't just take my word for it; here is some of the notable chaos that surrounded the team last year. The team had three different starting QBs, a rotation of different starters on the offensive line throughout the season, a head coach was fired, a former player with no coaching experience was hired, and a coach with no offensive playing call experience took over play-calling mid-season. 

And even after all of that, the team found a way to win four games and had one tie. Because of the lackluster schedule in front of the Colts and knowing what went down last season, I have a hard time buying the notion that the team will have a worse season this year than last.

My Colts Win Range: 

Looking at everything and weighing my prediction for the season (which will come in an article later this week), my personal win range for the Colts this season is 5-9 wins. 

Sportsbooks seem to be with me and have a little more faith in the team than some national outlets, as DraftKings and FanDuel both have the over/under win total for the Colts set at 6.5. 

OROY Anthony Richardson

Aug 24, 2023; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (5) in action against the Philadelphia Eagles at Lincoln Financial Field.
Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

I saved the boldest prediction for last, that being that Anthony Richardson will win Offensive Rookie of the Year.

I know the word "project" was used to describe Anthony Richardson throughout his draft process, but I believe he is further along as a passer than the typical mobile rookie QB.

 We know that Richardson is set to be the Colts starter from the beginning of the 2023 season when the Colts take on the Jaguars Week 1. And while I expect the typical rookie mistakes, I think Richardson's unique dual-threat ability will lead to him having the best statistical season of this year's offensive crop of rookies. 

Let me know your thoughts on these bold takes via my X (Twitter), and feel free to share your bold predictions for the 2023 Colts. 

Featured Image By: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports