The matchups that will decide 49ers' season opener with Steelers
The 49ers could hardly have asked for a more difficult season opener than going on the road to face the Steelers. San Francisco has had to fly cross country to the Eastern timezone to face a Steelers team on the rise following a strong finish to last season and an excellent preseason. Yet exhibition performances […]
The 49ers could hardly have asked for a more difficult season opener than going on the road to face the Steelers.
San Francisco has had to fly cross country to the Eastern timezone to face a Steelers team on the rise following a strong finish to last season and an excellent preseason.
Yet exhibition performances go out the window when the real stuff starts, and a 49ers team that was a game away from the Super Bowl last season is favored, albeit by a small amount, to prevail at Acrisure Stadium.
Let’s take a look at four matchups that will go a long way to determine whether they do so.
Brock Purdy vs. Steelers opportunistic secondary
Brock Purdy threw only four interceptions as a starting quarterback last season, with only three of those coming in his time as a starter. However, Purdy will put the ball in harm’s way, with his proclivity for playmaking creating more risk in that regard.
He finished last season just inside the bottom half of the league in terms of turnover-worthy play, his ratio of 3.5 percent tied as the 20th-highest among quarterbacks with at least 100 dropbacks, per Pro Football Focus.
His ability to avoid those plays will be critical against a Steelers defense that, despite possessing uninspiring cornerback options, has opportunistic talents in the secondary. Veteran Patrick Peterson has predicted he will intercept Purdy after picking off five passes in his lone season in Minnesota, though the greater danger will likely be All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, who had six interceptions in 2022.
Pittsburgh will be expected to send a lot of pressure in Purdy’s direction. Yet Purdy was first in positive play rate (min. 50 attempts) under pressure last season, per Sports Info Solutions. If he can continue to show such poise and avoid giving Peterson and Fitzpatrick opportunities to get their hands on the ball, it could be an impressive start to his first full season as QB1.
Colton McKivitz vs. T.J. Watt
T.J. Watt, eager to make up for lost time after a 2022 season ruined by injury, is sure to be salivating at the thought of facing a right tackle making his first NFL start at the position.
Arguably no player in this game could have such an outsized impact on its outcome than Colton McKivitz, who assumed the starting right tackle spot after Mike McGlinchey departed in free agency.
He earned the 49ers’ trust with a couple of impressive spot starts against the Rams in 2021 and 2022, but those both came on the left side and McKivitz did not face an edge rusher close to the caliber of Watt.
Tight end George Kittle, who will be tasked with helping McKivitz against Watt, has backed the 2020 fifth-round pick to rise the challenge. The 49ers could be in a lot of trouble if Kittle’s belief is misplaced.
Nick Bosa vs. Steelers offensive tackles
As nervous as 49ers fans may be about McKivitz going up against Watt, Steelers fans are potentially feeling even greater trepidation about the matchup of their tackles facing Nick Bosa.
Bosa will play, and said he is prepared for a full workload, after signing a record-setting contract extension this week at the end of a long impasse.
The reigning Defensive Player of the Year has only practiced with his teammates once after missing all of training camp and preseason, but there’s little doubt internally in Bosa’s ability to quickly return to the form that saw him lead the NFL in sacks in 2022 with 18.5.
Regardless of how much Bosa is on the field, he will see snaps at both right and left defensive end, meaning he will get Chukwuma Okorafor and Dan Moore Jr.
Okorafor gave up the fourth-most hurries (33) among tackles in the NFL last season while only two tackles conceded more quarterback hits than Moore (10), who also allowed seven sacks, per PFF.
Bosa’s matchup with the Steelers tackles is stacked heavily in the Niners’ favor, and a game-defining display from the star edge rusher could be in the offing provided he is as advertised following his holdout.
Kyle Shanahan vs. Steelers linebackers
Bosa’s return is perhaps not the aspect of this game the 49ers should be most excited about, with Week 1 having the potential to be another shining illustration of how head coach Kyle Shanahan exploits linebackers who struggle in coverage.
The Steelers’ starting inside linebackers Cole Holcomb and Elandon Roberts both fall into that category.
Among linebackers with 100 coverage snaps, Holcomb, per PFF, allowed the highest passer rating in the NFL (140.2). Roberts (113.6) fared somewhat better, but this is a starting duo that Shanahan will surely look to target continually and take advantage of their deficiencies with usage of play-action and his usual relentless utilization of pre-snap and at-the-snap motion.
Unless the Steelers find a way to mask the weaknesses of their linebackers in coverage, it could be a very profitable day for the 49ers passing game and a quarterback who is on the verge of history in the season opener.
How to watch and stream 49ers-Steelers in Week 1
It’s a very tough opener.
Featured Image Credit: Kyle Terada-USA TODAY Sports