Breaking down the key factors of a potential Trey Lance trade
Trey Lance's 49ers future looks bleak after the 49ers opted to go with Sam Darnold as their backup quarterback behind Brock Purdy. It was confirmed on Wednesday that the battle of two third overall picks had gone the way of Darnold, fueling talk of the Niners trading Lance ahead of his third season in the […]
Trey Lance's 49ers future looks bleak after the 49ers opted to go with Sam Darnold as their backup quarterback behind Brock Purdy.
It was confirmed on Wednesday that the battle of two third overall picks had gone the way of Darnold, fueling talk of the Niners trading Lance ahead of his third season in the NFL.
San Francisco has pushed back on talk of a parting being inevitable, but is hard to imagine Lance remaining on the roster in the long term as a third-stringer being a sustainable scenario.
There are several factors at play in a potential Lance trade, so let's break them down.
Why a trade makes sense
Though the 49ers are outwardly insistent they have not given up on Lance, him losing the QB2 job to Darnold is the clearest sign yet that there is little hope of him resurrecting his career with the 49ers.
San Francisco wants quarterback insurance after going through four players at the position last season, but head coach Kyle Shanahan understands Lance may not want to stay in a situation where he has little path to seeing the field in the regular season.
"We’ll always try to do right for Trey", Shanahan told KNBR on Wednesday. "If there’s a better situation that his heart’s in, we’re going to make sure not to do something that hurts him in that way."
Beyond Lance's potential desire for a fresh start, there's likely to be motivation on San Francisco's side to get something back for the 23-year-old after trading so much to get him in the first place. The return isn't likely to be impressive, but at a certain point the 49ers may be willing to take what they can get.
Why it doesn't
The primary reason why the 49ers wouldn't want to do a trade is financial. Simply put, it would cost them money to deal Lance to another team.
Per Spotrac, a trade would save the Niners just $940,000 in salary cap space while costing them $8.36 million in dead cap.
The 49ers probably already accept Lance is a sunk cost in terms of the the draft capital they gave up, but essentially paying to send him another team is something they may struggle to countenance.
On the other side of the coin, finding a team willing to pay a guaranteed salary of $5.5 million in 2024 for an unproven quarterback with extremely limited experience at the highest level could be tricky. And the compensation the 49ers might be able to get for Lance is open for debate.
What could they get?
It is widely assumed that the market for Lance after losing a quarterback competition would be significantly depressed.
Lance's performances in the 49ers' opening two preseason games likely did little to improve his value. He demonstrated his upside as a thrower but his decision-making and struggles processing quickly and delivering decisively were illustrative of his lack of development since entering the NFL.
Yet the physical upside he so clearly possesses, combined with his age, led three NFL executives to tell The Athletic's Jeff Howe that the 49ers could get a third-round pick in exchange for Lance.
However, five other league decision-makers were less optimistic, echoing the overriding opinion that the Niners could at best get a late-round pick in return, if they are able to deal Lance at all.
The 49ers would surely be delighted to get a third-rounder in a trade of Lance. How realistic an ambition that is remains to be seen and, beyond one potential trade partner, there is little insight as to which teams would be interested in his services.
Who might be interested?
The only team whose name has been linked with Lance since reports of him losing the competition with Darnold is the Vikings.
Per The Athletic's Dianna Russini, the 49ers and Vikings held "serious conversations" about a Lance trade this past spring, but those talks collapsed.
The 49ers have a connection with the Vikings as Minnesota's GM Kwesi Adofo-Mensah previously worked in San Francisco's front office. That relationship might help the Niners to find a resolution on a trade that would send Lance to his home state and to a team whose starting quarterback, Kirk Cousins, is a free agent this offseason.
There's a much more tenuous link between Lance and the Chiefs. Lance trained alongside Patrick Mahomes this offseason. With Mahomes and head coach Andy Reid as mentors, the Chiefs could arguably the offer the ideal environment for Lance in which to turn his career around.
Still, with Blaine Gabbert clearly in position as Mahomes' backup and Shane Buechele looking sure of a roster spot after a strong preseason, there's likely not room for Lance at present.
Without a definitive long-term answer at the game's most important position, the Buccaneers could be viewed as another possible destination, though it's tough to see them upsetting the balance of their quarterback depth chart this close to the season. A lack of landing spots could lead to Lance spending another frustrating year with the 49ers.
NFL executives believe 49ers could get a third-round pick for Trey Lance
His market might not be as depressed as first thought.
Featured Image Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports
