The NFL is still making the mistake of writing Geno Smith off
"They wrote my off, I ain't write back though," Geno Smith chirped after the opening win of what proved to be a Comeback Player of the Year season from the Seahawks quarterback. As he approaches his second season as Seattle's starting quarterback, plenty of people inside the NFL still appear to be writing Smith off. […]
"They wrote my off, I ain't write back though," Geno Smith chirped after the opening win of what proved to be a Comeback Player of the Year season from the Seahawks quarterback.
As he approaches his second season as Seattle's starting quarterback, plenty of people inside the NFL still appear to be writing Smith off.
Despite a 2022 season in which Smith led the NFL in completion percentage (69.8) and threw for 4,282 yards and 30 touchdowns, the Seahawks signal-caller landed in a surprisingly low spot on the quarterback tiers compiled by Mike Sando of The Athletic.
The list is put together with the help of 50 league insiders, who place 30 quarterbacks into tiers (rookies are excluded). Smith surprisingly landed in Tier 3 at 20, putting him below Giants starter Daniel Jones and only spot ahead of Justin Fields of the Bears.
One executive dinged Smith for his inability to help the Seahawks keep pace with the 49er offense during San Francisco's blowout win over Seattle in the Wild Card round last season. The Niners prevailed 41-23 in game the Seahawks led 17-16 at half.
Per Sando, that exec said:
"The defense was playing well enough to keep them in the game in spots, but there were times Geno couldn’t fully take over and make that special play that when everything else breaks down, the quarterback has to make. He's really good at what he is, but I think ultimately he will be a little limited in his ascension."
It seems quite unfair to point to a game against a superior opponent as a reason to not put him in tier two. In the second half, the Seahawks were quite clearly overmatched as San Francisco's dominance up front took hold. Per Pro Football Focus, in true pass sets, the 49ers racked up 11 hurries and three sacks of Smith. By contrast, the Seahawks managed only five hurries and a quarterback hit.
The circumstances in that contest were not conducive for Smith to succeed. While in the first half the Seahawks held their own, they were swimming against the tide thereafter, with San Francisco winning the trenches and creating much more in the open field on offense. The 49ers averaged 10.3 yards after catch per completion compared to 3.1 for Seattle.
Though Smith could not help the Seahawks overcome adversity in the playoffs, his body of work over the course of last year is more representative of the quarterback he has grown into.
He topped the charts in completion percentage over expected on throws of 20 air yards or more, per NextGen Stats, illustrating his success in throwing downfield with unerring accuracy.
Per Sports Info Solutions, 52.9 percent of his throws of 15 or more air yards resulted in positive Expected Points Added, second only to Tua Tagovailoa (min. 50 attempts).
Smith ensured the Seahawks always carried a big-play threat in the passing game and he was also impressive in the intermediate areas. Joe Burrow (75.2%) was the only quarterback with a minimum of 100 pass attempts between five to 10 air yards to have a higher completion percentage on such throws than Smith's 74.1. Russell Wilson, four spots ahead of Smith on Sando's list, completed just 66 percent of those throws.
In other words, last year Smith made sure the Seahawks continued to enjoy having a quarterback with deep-ball prowess akin to that displayed by Wilson over the years and was substantially better than his predecessor in the short to intermediate areas.
Even Smith's play under pressure was better than he has been given credit for. Only four quarterbacks had more dropbacks under pressure than Smith's 227, but he ranked sixth in positive play rate (35.3%) among quarterbacks with at least 50 attempts under duress.
Smith's 2022 numbers simply do not tally with his place in the tiers ranking. It is harsh to hold one playoff game against him, but as a defensive coordinator noted in Sando's piece, he has performed at this level for just one season.
If he can produce a similar level of play in 2023, very few people will be dismissing him this time next year.
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