DeAndre Hopkins: Assessing Patriots' fit – has star receiver lost his edge?
As we enter the slower period of the NFL off-season, the lull between organized team activities and the start of training camp in late July, the headlines will be dominated by DeAndre Hopkins rumors. Since his release on May 26th, Hopkins has been linked to several teams, including the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland […]
As we enter the slower period of the NFL off-season, the lull between organized team activities and the start of training camp in late July, the headlines will be dominated by DeAndre Hopkins rumors.
Since his release on May 26th, Hopkins has been linked to several teams, including the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, Cleveland Browns, Baltimore Ravens, Detroit Lions, and the New England Patriots. This storyline goes back as far as January when rumors leaked that the Arizona Cardinals could potentially trade him.
It seems like there could be significant competition for Hopkins in the market, as Ian Rapoport mentioned this week, "It is going to be robust, and there are going to be several other teams interested in DeAndre Hopkins, especially the really good, playoff-caliber type teams"
As for the timeline on his decision, Rapoport said, "Certainly things can happen, but I wouldn't be surprised if he (Hopkins) waits right up until the start of training camp. There is no rush; it's not like he needs to take part in minicamp. I expect Hopkins to exhibit patience."
Odell Beckham Jr dragged out his free agency tour and was able to cash in on a relatively lucrative deal for a player who is on the wrong side of 30 and comes off back-to-back ACL tears in the same knee. Hopkins, similarly, is on the wrong side of 30, but he is coming off a season where he was on pace for 1,350+ yards.
The most common question that fans ask when a veteran receiver becomes available is, "How much has he physically regressed?" In order to answer these questions, I conducted a comprehensive film breakdown of DeAndre Hopkins's 2022 season to assess whether he is a worthwhile acquisition.
I don't believe Hopkins has experienced a physical regression. However, it's worth noting that he was never considered the best athlete to begin with. I believe a team could confidently offer Hopkins a multi-year contract because his playing style should age better than that of a player who relies heavily on speed. Throughout his football career, Hopkins has had to adapt and find ways to succeed without solely relying on athleticism.
Hopkins still excels at beating man coverage, as demonstrated in the example below. He showcased his intelligence and the nuanced approach he brings to the game, which helps him maintain his position as one of the top possession wide receivers in the NFL.
One area where Hopkins particularly shines is in selling the stem on vertical routes. He has retained the acceleration necessary to quickly gain an advantage over defensive backs and threaten them vertically. In the example, cornerback Charvarius Ward retreats to defend against the vertical threat. As soon as Ward commits and turns his hips to defend, Hopkins capitalizes on the situation by attacking the inside of the defender's flipped hips. Ward is unable to recover and defend the play effectively.
Kliff Kingsbury ran a spread offense in Arizona that primarily utilized the shotgun formation, spreading the receiving options across the field and providing the quarterback with numerous outlets. However, in my opinion, Kingsbury did not fully maximize Hopkins' skill set. A large percentage of his routes consisted of hitches, curl routes, or asking Hopkins to make plays in open space.
Being dynamic after the catch has never been Hopkins' strongest suit. As mentioned earlier, he relies on his intelligence and physicality to win on the field. Throughout his career, Hopkins has averaged 3.5 yards after the catch per reception (YAC/REC). In 2022, he finished with 2.8 YAC/REC, which ranked him 46th out of 51 eligible wide receivers (minimum 75 targets).
However, it's important to note that Hopkins doesn't necessarily need to excel in yards after the catch. Even in his 2022 season, it wasn't his worst YAC performance. In 2015, which is arguably Hopkins' best season in the NFL, he finished with just 1.9 YAC/REC, placing him 50th out of 50 eligible wide receivers (minimum 75 targets). Despite that, Hopkins still managed to accumulate over 1,500 receiving yards and score 11 touchdowns.
To conclude, while Hopkins may not be known for his dynamic after the catch ability, he can still occasionally contribute.
Hopkins "wins" in a variety of ways, but he is a long, physical player. Hopkins' 33.75-inch arms rank in the 86th percentile, and even when it seems like he is covered by one of the best coverage corners in the game, Hopkins' catch radius and spatial awareness allow him to never be fully covered.
Hopkins routinely sets up back-shoulder catches by allowing the cornerback to get on top of him and then boxing them out. Hopkins had the 3rd lowest drop percentage and the 14th-highest contested catch percentage among 39 eligible wide receivers (minimum 90 targets).
The fear in offering a lucrative contract to an aging playmaker is the natural regression of physical ability. However, Hopkins hasn't shown any signs of physical regression yet, and he wins in similar ways to players like Larry Fitzgerald and Reggie Wayne, both of whom were highly effective into their mid-30s.
Hopkins exploited the weaknesses of the NFL's fourth-ranked passing defense by catching nine passes for 91 yards against the San Francisco 49ers. He accomplished this by utilizing his route acumen and body positioning to set up their defensive backs for failure.
I have no way of proving this since I am not in the building to know exactly how the play is drawn up, but in this next clip, I believe Hopkins is running some kind of option route.
On certain plays, the wide receiver has the option to adjust their route between two options based on the look the defense gives them. Hopkins seems to have noticed the safety blitz and settles down in the shallow vacated zone to serve as a quick outlet for his quarterback. Once again, Hopkins demonstrates his ability to gain extra yards after the catch and do the dirty work.
Hopkins is primarily an outside receiver, with 72.7% of his snaps coming from the outside in 2022. However, he was also effective from the slot.
Another example of Hopkins' ability to manipulate defensive backs is his skill in not telegraphing his routes. Hopkins excels at attacking the mid-line of defensive backs, forcing them to commit to an angle and usually resulting in separation for Hopkins. Additionally, Hopkins demonstrates his proficiency in making cuts without losing momentum.
Hopkins executes another highly technical route, this time from the slot. He effectively sells the deeper vertical/crossing route, luring the linebacker to open his hips and commit before swiftly cutting back in for more of a dig-type route.
If you look closer, you can appreciate the technical prowess of Hopkins as a route-runner, a skill he demonstrates frequently. Hopkins subtly shifts his weight to convincingly sell the up-field route. Coordinating the movement of his head with the weight shift, he entices the linebacker to bite and flip his hips, only to quickly snap back inside into the dig route. This ability to create separation is what sets elite receivers apart, allowing them to maintain their effectiveness even as they progress into their later years.
Hopkins has never been known for his blazing speed, but his downfield performance has always been elite, and opposing teams still hold respect for his vertical and big-play ability. In the 2022 season, the Cardinals faced challenges in stretching the field. The Cardinals finished with the seventh lowest average depth of target among NFL teams.
The Cardinals faced a challenging situation at quarterback, with Hopkins playing alongside three different quarterbacks in just nine weeks. Despite the quarterback carousel he had to navigate, Hopkins maintained a remarkable pace of over 1,350 yards.
It wasn't just the fact that Hopkins played with three different QBs; he also never had the opportunity to build continuity with any of them due to the week-to-week rotations. Moreover, each quarterback had a unique game plan. Below is a breakdown of the QBs Hopkins played with:
- Week 8: Kyler Murray
- Week 9: Kyler Murray
- Week 10: Colt McCoy
- Week 11: Colt McCoy
- Week 12: Kyler Murray
- Week 13: Bye Week
- Week 14: Colt McCoy
- Week 15: Trace McSorley
- Week 16: Trace McSorley
To highlight the challenging QB situation Hopkins faced, I have compiled a video showcasing his final game of the season, during which he caught only one pass for four yards. This illustrates the extent of the difficulties he encountered due to the poor QB play. It's important to note that numerous explosive plays were left on the field during Hopkins' Week 15 performance.
Kyler Murray, the Cardinals' starting quarterback, had one of his worst seasons as a professional. According to PFF, Murray had a 3.8% "turnover-worthy play percentage," which ranked as the seventh worst among 24 eligible quarterbacks (minimum 400 drop-backs). In addition, Murray didn't offset the risk of putting the ball in harm's way by making big-time plays, as PFF charted him with a 2.2% "big-time play percentage." This mark was the 3rd lowest among 24 eligible quarterbacks (minimum 440 drop-backs).
New England has struggled to be effective in the red zone over the last several years, and it is clear that their lack of playmakers plays a significant role in that. Hopkins' football IQ could bring a substantial upgrade to a team's red zone approach.
Red-zone efficiency (touchdown only):
| Year | Rank |
|---|---|
2017 | 3rd/32 |
2018 | 12th/32 |
2019 | 26th/32 |
2020 | 24th/32 |
2021 | 7th/32 |
2022 | 32nd/32 |
To summarize, despite a shortened season marred by QB issues and poor offensive play-calling, Hopkins remained highly productive. He continues to excel in various aspects of the game and has not shown any physical regression. Hopkins can still outmatch some of the best cornerbacks in the NFL.
Hopkins has the potential to remain a top-10 wide receiver in the NFL. If the New England Patriots want to take the next step, they need a philosophical shift in their roster-building approach. It has been four seasons since the Patriots won a playoff game, with their last victory on February 3rd, 2019.
The Patriots signing Hopkins would mark a change of pace from their recent team-building strategy and serve as proof that they are willing to support the development of their young quarterback. As legendary Patriots quarterback Tom Brady mentioned in a recent interview with Rich Eisen, "As quarterbacks, we all need great receivers to be productive and prolific."
Featured image via Michael Chow/The Republic / USA TODAY NETWORK
