The New England Patriots had an active offseason from a coaching perspective, which makes it difficult to predict how the 2023 campaign will go.

Pro Football Focus is testing its new PFF Game Simulator. It stimulates the games based on a myriad of factors to try to make an accurate prediction of what the New England Patriots season might look like. It works by giving game-by-game predictions and offensive player predictions.

I simulated the 2023 Patriots season three times to see what a range of outcomes might look like and discussed what the subsequent offseason may look like if that prediction was to become a reality.

On the first attempt, New England finished with a disappointing 6-11 record. The Patriots were able to keep it close in several critical games, but the overwhelming strength of the schedule proved too much for New England to overcome. Finishing 2-8 to close out the season would be tough. I find it interesting that in this simulation one of the Patriots' two largest losses came to the Indianapolis Colts.

Bill Belichick-led defenses tend to eat up rookie quarterbacks, and the second-largest loss of the season coming to one of the rawest rookie QBs in recent memory, Anthony Richardson, would be shocking.

As for player performance, there was a silver lining. Quarterback Mac Jones threw 30 TDs and had a completion percentage of 63.9 percent. In this simulation not a single WR surpassed 900 receiving yards. I think the coaching staff could walk away from this season satisfied with Jones's performance. Hopefully, the front office would be impressed enough to finally go get Jones a dominant wide receiver. 

The bad news was wide receiver Tyquan Thornton did not develop. He regressed from his 2022 season. Registering 177 yards with a near 4,500-yard passer would be an extremely disappointing outcome for a former top-50 pick. 

Rookie wide receiver Kayshon Boutte had a unique season with five catches with four touchdowns on only 66 yards.

Running back Rhamondre Stevenson finishing with 1,666 scrimmage yards, 14 total touchdowns, and 4.74 yards per carry would be an elite season. That type of season would lock Stevenson as a top-10 running back in the NFL. 

Recording 665 scrimmage yards and 1 touchdown for running back James Robinson would be solid for a rotational running back. I think New England would be excited about that production. I am not sure if I buy into the idea that Pierre Strong, with his speed, is only given 23 carries and eight receptions. I think New England would be disappointed with that outcome. 

It may be beyond the early phases of this simulator's capabilities, but it is surprising to see that cornerback/offensive contributor Marcus Jones did not receive any carries or receptions.

In my opinion, 6-11 is the worst outcome for the 2023 season. If this is how New England's season was to go, I don't think owner Robert Kraft would be happy. I also don't think it's crazy to suggest that Kraft would consider forcing major changes, maybe requesting Belichick to delegate some responsibility and hire a general manager.

On the second attempt, the record took a slight improvement to 7-10. That's not great, but an upgrade over the first simulation. The main concern with this outcome was there was no silver lining surrounding player production.

Mac Jones tossed 20 touchdowns to 15 interceptions. If this happened, the team would be winning in spite of Mac Jones and the team would be in the QB market for 2024. It would be less about the lackluster touchdown total, but more about the TD-to-INT ratio. Using 2022 passing statistics, 15 interceptions would lead the league. 

The other skill positions were equally disappointing with the leading receiver once again being under 900 receiving yards. In this instance, the 2022 and 2023 rookies did not develop either. Despite the improved record from the first simulation, this would be a worst-case scenario for the team as a whole. 

In this scenario, the coaching changes made during the 2023 offseason didn't move the needle and the past two drafts' offensive rookies didn't develop. Far and away the worst part is that the team would need an upgrade at QB. If this was the outcome of the 2023 Patriots, they're in "blow it up territory." I think there would be a consideration from ownership for massive top-down changes. 

This simulation had another solid season for the running-back room. Stevenson's production is a bit down at 1,445 scrimmage yards. That's still impressive, but Stevenson had 1,461 scrimmage yards in 2022. Unimpressive touchdown numbers further confirm that this simulation's offense struggled mightily. 

Although New England's record is slightly better than the first simulation, the extra win is not indicative of just how bad the offense was and the changes that would likely follow this kind of season. 

On the third and final attempt, we yielded the best results yet and what I believe would be a realistic best-case scenario for the 2023 Patriots. A 10-7 record with multiple inter-divisional wins and likely a playoff berth is exactly what this team needs to get back on track.

I would be surprised if New England beat Buffalo and Miami twice, but I think New Orleans, Los Angeles, Indianapolis, and Pittsburgh are all winnable games for New England, so 10-7 as a high-end estimation checks out. 

The player statistics were on par with the first simulation. Mac Jones threw 29 touchdowns and rushed for another 2 scores to bring his touchdown total to 31. 

As mentioned, if Jones can string together an impressive passing season like this simulation suggests with mediocre playmakers and a first-year offensive coordinator, that would be great for the franchise. That would allow the main focus of the 2024 offseason to be centered around building continuity with offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien and adding a big-time weapon for Jones. 

If Juju Smith-Schuster could have receiving production like this, or better, that would be massive for the team. Not just in 2023 but beyond, but 800-900 yards from Smith-Schuster and Kendrick Bourne would allow the team to feel comfortable with their Nos. 2 and 3 wide receivers. Stevenson having a monster receiving season for a running back would be the gravy on top of this simulation.

The lack of production for the 2022 and 2023 offensive draft classes was a common theme in these simulations. The simulator is still in its beta phase, but as it progresses there will likely be an option to move players around to simulate more reasonable production models. 

Of course, it is possible that Thornton, Boutte, Douglas, and Strong don't add any value to the team in 2023, but the lack of opportunities for these players the simulations suggest is unlikely.  New England needs those players to develop and they should receive reps. 

It has been a common theme that the simulator thinks that New England will have a great rushing attack, but this simulation resulted in an all-time season for Stevenson with 1,811 scrimmage yards and 12 total touchdowns. It produced a strong season for the second option at running back too.  

As a reminder, these are merely simulations of possible outcomes based on strength of schedule, skill-position talent, and previous statistics. There are some flaws in the simulator and it is in its infancy stages, but the range of outcomes suggested seem reasonable. 

A high-end result for New England could look like an 8-10 win team with Mac Jones taking a step forward and throwing somewhere between 25-to-30 touchdowns and protecting the ball. Those figures with mediocre skill-position talent are fair and a step in the right direction. 

A low-end result for New England could look like a team with any amount of wins, but with the team's younger players not progressing, the coaching hires not resulting in a drastic difference and Jones not progressing. This team is in major need of showing signs of development. From QB downward, there have been several mediocre drafts that have not yielded the return the team expects. All of those factors of a worst-case scenario combined could set the wheels in motion for a tear-down and a massive change by ownership. 

This is an important season for the future of the franchise. They have a quarterback and coach that need to prove themselves with mediocre offensive talent and a difficult schedule ahead. What do you think the 2023 Patriots will look like?