Way-too-early prediction for Patriots 2024 free agents
The New England Patriots have some difficult decisions to make a year from now, and they can get out ahead of some of them with early contract extensions. The Patriots have 23 players scheduled to hit the open market as unrestricted free agents in 2024. Let's go through them. In the interest of trying to keep this […]
The New England Patriots have some difficult decisions to make a year from now, and they can get out ahead of some of them with early contract extensions.
The Patriots have 23 players scheduled to hit the open market as unrestricted free agents in 2024. Let's go through them.
In the interest of trying to keep this concise, I will not be including restricted free agents and I will only be covering the bigger-name free agents.
TE Hunter Henry
Henry is slated to enter 2024 free agency as one of the top tight ends available in a fairly deep tight end class.
Through his two seasons in New England, Henry has averaged 32.7 receiving yards and 0.32 touchdowns per game, or a seasonal average of 556 yards and 5.5 touchdowns.
Henry's 2021 season was his peak and saw him finish top-15 in receiving yards and leading the league in receiving touchdowns among tight ends.
Henry's 2022 season, along with the rest of the team, saw a marked decrease in production. The scheme is likely to blame for this. This will be a big year for him to prove that it was scheme-related, and not something else.
New England has no future at tight-end with both Hunter Henry and Mike Gesicki set to be free agents in 2024. There currently is no heir-apparent.
Now being coached by new offensive coordinator Bill O'Brien, who is partially responsible for the greatest tight-end duo in NFL history in 2011, Henry has a chance to set career highs. My gut tells me he finishes among the top half of NFL tight ends in most stats and earns an extension. He may be extended sooner too.
Verdict: Returns to New England
Contract Prediction:
Two-year, $23M with $15M guaranteed.
Age at signing: 29.2 years old
TE Mike Gesicki
If 2023 goes swimmingly, New England may opt to "run it back" at tight end, which could entail re-signing Gesicki. Gesicki is a unique player to try to project to New England's offense. Not a traditional in-line tight-end, he's essentially a large-bodied wide receiver. Gesicki has played 55 percent of his snaps from the slot and 21 percent of his snaps from outside/X wide receiver. That is 76 percent of his career snaps coming from a wide receiver alignment.
Gesicki has flashed high-end play with nearly 800 receiving yards in 2021. If anyone can figure out how to maximize and use Gesicki's unique skill set, it should be O'Brien.
I think New England intends to make Gesicki a focal point of the 2023 offense, and he ultimately returns to New England.
Verdict: Returns to New England
Contract Prediction:
Three-year, $40M with $24M guaranteed
Age at signing: 28.4 years old
LB Josh Uche
Uche was electric for New England in 2022. Finishing with 56 pressures on 285 pass-rushing snaps is elite. In previous years, Uche had struggled to get on the field because he is a bit of a one-dimensional player, and even in 2022, he served the team in a rotational role.
New England is thin at pass rusher, but they just invested the 45th overall pick in Keion White, and I do believe their expectation is for him to develop into a starter soon. They also have players like Ronnie Perkins, who has not taken an NFL snap yet, under contract too.
For 2023, I think New England will let Uche "pin his ears back" and go rush the passer again, similar to his 2022 role. Between Uche's poor run defense and pricing himself out of New England as a pass-rusher, I don't know if Belichick will prioritize re-signing a player who he views as a liability against the run.
Verdict: Returns to New England
WR DeVante Parker
Thin at wide receiver already, it gets worse for New England in 2024. Parker and Kendrick Bourne are both free agents. Oft-injured, Parker showed the caliber of wide receiver he can be in 2019 with a 1,202-yard and nine-touchdown performance.
Parker's status with the team largely depends on factors outside of his control. If some of the younger wide receivers develop, he may become expendable. If quarterback Mac Jones doesn't take the next step and the team elects to do a bit of an offensive roster teardown, Parker might not be part of the plans. Parker's health plays a factor too. Parker hasn't played a full season since his breakout year in 2019.
New England can do better, and whether Jones develops or not, the team should be looking to add a dominant threat to help the offense develop in 2024.
Verdict: Returns to New England
WR Kendrick Bourne
Many of the same aforementioned sentiments about Parker are true for Bourne too. I think Bourne might be the easiest free agent to predict, though. New England hasn't shown a willingness to commit to him, and with the controversy surrounding Bourne's playing time in 2022, it seems the writing is on the wall.
Bourne could also find himself as the odd-man out during training camp this season, especially if 2022 second-round pick Tyquan Thornton (or someone else) looks promising. Maybe Bourne is traded before the trade deadline or doesn't survive the final cuts, but assuming he does make the Patriots in 2023, I do not think the team will bring him back after this season.
Verdict: Not re-signed.
OL Michael Onwenu
Onwenu is arguably one of the best players on the entire team. Last season, he allowed just 13 pressures and one sack in 17 games. There are only two guards in the NFL who allowed less pressure. Onwenu is a top-five guard in the NFL.
After hearing that, you would think Onwenu is a slam-dunk, re-sign candidate. The problem is the Patriots may not want to spend big money on a position they frequently develop well. Joe Thuney was drafted in the third round of the 2016 NFL Draft and was coached up into one of the best guards in the NFL. New England let him cash in on a big payday after they franchise tagged him for the 2020 season. In 2021, Thuney signed a five-year, $80M deal with the Kansas City Chiefs that made him one of the NFL's highest-paid guards.
Onwenu and Thuney are vastly different players. Thuney was 304 lbs and more athletic. Onwenu is 344 lbs and is more limited as an athlete. Despite Onwenu having more athletic restrictions, he also possesses multi-positional versatility due to his weight and arm length. Onwenu has taken significant snaps at left guard, right guard, and right tackle and has been above average at all of them.
Due to his positional versatility, I think New England will try to re-sign him. It won't be cheap, though. I think New England can get him cheaper yearly if they offer more guaranteed money.
Verdict: Returns to New England
Contract Prediction:
Four-year, $68M with $39M guarantees.
Age at signing: 26.2 years old
SS Kyle Dugger
Dugger is another player that could be in contention for the best player on the roster alongside Onwenu. Over the past few seasons, Dugger has steadily improved and looked borderline elite in 2022.
There is room to grow, though. Dugger allowed a 71-percent completion percentage on 55 targets for 392 yards and five touchdowns in 2022. Those numbers don't tell the entire story, though. Dugger was still above average in coverage. It is important to remember that he is just a few years removed from Division II football and is still entering his prime.
I can see a world where New England and Dugger aren't able to meet on value, and Dugger ends up being the perfect tag candidate. New England likes to get creative, so maybe they do something like a transition tag to get Dugger for a cheaper price. It's hard to predict which tag they'll pick, so I will include both.
Verdict: Franchise/Transition Tag
Contract Prediction:
One-year, $15,445,000-$18,944,000
Age at signing: 27.9 years old.
OT Trent Brown
Brown is an interesting player with a career full of inconsistencies and injuries. New England is in a tough position on the offensive line for the future. As of today, right tackle is expected to be a camp battle and the left tackle is Trent Brown. But beyond that, there aren't any promising young options at tackle.
I expect New England will pursue an offensive tackle in free agency or with a premium pick in the 2024 NFL draft, regardless of Brown's status with the team as they're thin at the position. In the modern NFL, offensive tackles have played at a high level into their mid-30s but with Brown's health issues and inconsistent play, I think any long-term contract for him would be too risky.
Maybe New England keeps him around on a short-term, incentive-laden deal, but I fully expect New England's offensive line to be significantly better in 2024 and that may open a big contract opportunity for Brown. I don't think New England would take the bait on that, and would likely let him walk.
Verdict: Not re-signed.
LB Ja'Whaun Bentley
Bentley, like fellow linebacker Jahlani Tavai, seems to be a Bill Belichick-favorite. Bentley is a down-hill, thumping-style linebacker. He lacks explosion and is a player that will always have to rely on his size and mind. Bentley may never be elite, but he is a very solid player and does a lot of the small tasks that go unnoticed by the average person.
Bentley is a classic Patriot, and my bet is he sticks around the team for most of his career. Even if he eventually takes a step back as an athlete, his football intellect will compensate for the inevitable physical decline. I sense a career arc similar to Dont'a Hightower. If Bentley does stick around, I expect a team-friendly team deal.
Verdict: Returns to New England
Contract Predictions:
Three-year, $24.75M with $12.5M guaranteed
Age at signing: 27.7 years old.
Those are the main free agents New England will need to strongly consider bringing back. The team is set to have approximately $92M in available cap for the 2024 season. That is the second-most available cap space in the NFL, so bringing back key free agents and signing players from outside of the building shouldn't be an issue, especially with how many salary-cap loopholes exist.