New England Patriots have a unique approach to the NFL draft
There is frustration among New England Patriots fans that Bill Belichick is less concerned with the team's lack of high-end playmakers. This has been the story for half of the last decade. It is no secret that Belichick has historically made some head-scratching draft selections, but how much has he deviated from the consensus board […]
There is frustration among New England Patriots fans that Bill Belichick is less concerned with the team's lack of high-end playmakers.
This has been the story for half of the last decade. It is no secret that Belichick has historically made some head-scratching draft selections, but how much has he deviated from the consensus board in recent years?
Starting with the 2019 NFL draft, it is hard to ignore the elephant in the room that was the N'Keal Harry selection. Widely considered one of the biggest draft busts of the Belichick era, Harry was taken with the 32nd pick. The former Arizona State wide receiver caught 57 passes for 598 yards and four touchdowns in New England before being traded to the Chicago Bears for a 2024 7th-round draft selection.
The rest of the 2019 NFL Draft wasn't much better. Cornerback Joejuan Williams was the next player drafted with the 45th overall pick. Williams started just one game in his time in New England. In four years, Williams recorded just 44 tackles and eight passes defended. Williams finished his time in New England with only 506 career snaps.
The Patriots did get some value out of running back Damien Harris and punter Jake Bailey, but both players are no longer on the team. In fact, of the ten players picked by New England in the 2019 NFL Draft, none remain. The final player clinging onto the roster, until yesterday, was offensive tackle Yodny Cajuste. Cajuste is another player who offered the team almost nothing during his time in New England. The former 101st overall pick had a mere 278 snaps in 4 seasons.
According to this graph, the Tennessee Titans drafted closest to the consensus board rankings, and the Las Vegas Raiders strayed furthest from the consensus board with their draft class.
New England ranked 22nd among teams in deviating from the consensus board for their draft selections. Only nine other franchises strayed further from the consensus rankings than New England.
A frequent conversation that arises every single off-season for the New England Patriots fans is where Belichick elects to draft players versus the perceived "obvious" draft picks he passes on. When you expect Belichick to take what seems like the "obvious SEC player," he takes the four-year FCS starter.
There is something to be said about the argument too. When you look at a team like the Tennessee Titans, who drafted closest to the consensus board rankings, they landed All-Pro players like Jeffrey Simmons and AJ Brown. The Titans only drafted six players in the 2019 NFL Draft and got five starters.
The trend continued in 2020, with New England being 32nd in terms of teams that deviated from the consensus board for their selections.
Despite being dead last in drafting in accordance with the consensus board, the New England Patriots hit on a diamond in the rough with safety Kyle Dugger. Dugger was a Division II stand-out, winning the Cliff Harris Award which honors the best small-school defensive player.
In New England, Dugger has turned into a high-end starter and is progressively getting better each year. Dugger's role has also increased as he has transitioned from DII speed to NFL speed, seeing an increase in total snaps every year.
Edge defender Josh Uche is a bit of a late breakout player. Injuries and lack of versatility kept Uche off the field in 2019, 2020, and 2021. Uche isn't the prototypical Belichick defensive lineman, with a bit slighter of a frame with struggles in run defense. New England's apprehension to make Uche an every-down player was further confirmed by his 2022 usage. He played 373 total snaps and just 47 of those came against the run.
In 2022, they let Josh Uche pin his ears back and get after the QB, though. Uche had 33 pressures and seven sacks in the final six games of the season. In total, Uche had 56 pressures and 12 sacks on a mere 285 pass-rushing snaps. That is creating pressure on 19.64% of Uche's pass-rushing snaps
For context, fan favorite Matthew Judon had 69 pressures on 480 pass-rushing snaps. That is creating pressure on 14.37% of his pass-rushing snaps.
Micah Parsons: 18.44%
Nick Bosa: 17.71%
On a snap-to-snap basis, there weren't many more effective pass rushers than Josh Uche in 2022.
The rest of the 2020 NFL Draft class is mostly a disaster. Highlighted by trading up for two tight ends who were widely considered "reaches," and neither is on the roster any longer. The bright spot of the late-round selections is unequivocally guard Michael Onwenu. Onwenu has been a high-end versatile starter along the offensive line for all three of his NFL seasons.
The 2021 NFL Draft is where New England drafted closer to the consensus. New England ranked eighth in terms of teams that deviated from the consensus board for their selections.
This is the point in reviewing the last few drafts where the jury is still out. By all accounts, it looked like a home run in 2021 with the rookie season from quarterback Mac Jones, running back Rhamondre Stevenson and defensive tackle Christian Barmore.
The most important pick of the 2021 NFL draft and the future of the franchise started strong. Mac Jones had one of the top-10 greatest seasons by a rookie QB. It looked like it was just the start, as the 2021 team lacked skill-position talent, and the Patriots still made the playoffs. Expectations were high for the 2022 season. However, the growth would be destroyed by two of the most head-scratching coaching hires in recent memory. Bill Belichick elected to replace Josh McDaniels by handing the QB coach and offensive coordinator titles to two guys who weren't qualified for the job: Matt Patricia and Joe Judge.
If you are a New England Patriots fan, you've likely heard all the drama surrounding the 2022 season. The offensive coaching staff's incompetence was covered ad nauseam by the media. It seems like the approach for New England has been to treat 2022 as a "throwaway year" and build on the few positives. We can make a fair assessment of the 2021 and 2022 NFL draft classes after the 2023 NFL season concludes.
The majority of the other draft selections have played little to no snaps in the NFL. Edge defender Ronnie Perkins, linebacker Cameron McGrone and wide receiver Tre Nixon have never taken an NFL snap. Guard Will Sherman and safety Joshuah Bledsoe have combined for 28 career snaps.
The 2022 and 2023 draft classes are too recent to judge heavily, but I will include how those draft classes rank against the consensus board.
For the 2022 draft class, New England ranked 32nd in deviating from the consensus board for their draft selections, meaning no other team deviated further from the consensus value of draft prospects more than the New England Patriots.
I won't spend much time on how the 2022 rookie draft class faired in the NFL. They're afforded the same "void" year the rest of the team should be granted for the horrid coaching situation. My gut tells me that the Patriots 2022 draft class, despite going strongly against the consensus, will end up being a solid draft class though.
According to the consensus board, the worst selections New England made in terms of draft value were Sam Roberts and Tyquan Thornton. Roberts and Thornton were overdrafted more than 100 picks ahead of the consensus value.
On the flip side, New England only drafted one player that was considered "good value" by the consensus, and that was Andrew Stueber. Stueber was drafted at pick 245, but the consensus had him as the 239th best player in the draft class.
Of the ten players New England players drafted in the 2022 NFL Draft, nine of them were drafted ahead of their consensus rank. Now, this doesn't necessarily mean anything as players like Marcus Jones were drafted 85th overall, but the consensus had him as the 88th-best player in the draft. Differences in draft position that small are negligible.
For 2023, again, New England again ranked 32nd in terms of teams that deviated from the consensus board for their selections.
Obviously, we haven't even seen these players in jerseys yet, so the future remains to be seen. Nonetheless, it is still interesting to see New England going against the grain more than any other team in the NFL for a second straight year.
According to the consensus board, the worst value selections New England made were kicker Chad Ryland, cornerback Ameer Speed and center Jake Andrews.
The best value selections, per the consensus board, were wide receiver Kayshon Boutte, cornerback Christian Gonzalez and edge defender Keion White
To put a bow on all of this, and provide my interpretation of the data, the closer a team drafts to the consensus board for the first four rounds seems to be a good bet on landing high-impact players.
The occasional unexpected selection/over-draft will result in a good player, but it seems like they are far more likely to end up as a Daniel Jones (consensus 49th-ranked player in the 2019 NFL draft) rather than a Patrick Mahomes (consensus 43rd-ranked player in the 2017 NFL draft). Both players were selected in the top ten of the NFL draft, both were considered "reaches" by the consensus, and both have had wildly different careers.
In rounds 4-7, there seems to be a discrepancy between how the consensus board values players, and what NFL teams value. In New England's case, I think that is why they are perennially one of the teams whose draft selections deviate furthest from the consensus rankings.
What I think should be accounted for in this conversation is that late-round draft selections don't carry expectations. Also, teams tend to spend late-round picks on players that possess a specific value, whether that is special teams, depth, or "fliers" like Byron Cowart or Kayshon Boutte who are former five-star recruits that had significant question marks surrounding them.
Since the expectations for late-round draft picks are inherently lower, teams can get more creative and take more chances, and that may be part of the reason New England deviates from the consensus board in late-rounds. Does it matter if the Patriots draft a player with the 225th pick when the consensus has them as the 450th-best player? I would say no, because the New England Patriots may covet a specific, niche skillset in later rounds. At that juncture, there is less certainty, and deviating from the consensus appears less impactful.
For the Patriots, the talent evaluation process needs to improve as a whole. The team lacks explosive playmakers and has had to force drafting positions of need due to the lack of player development and poor free-agency decisions. For example, the Patriots had to draft defensive line early in 2023. Uche and Anferee Jennings are free agents after this season and they have no future at EDGE due to the lack of drafted players developing.
