Why the New England Patriots don't have a QB battle
The entire 2022 Patriots' season was overshadowed by storylines involving Matt Patricia, Joe Judge, and the fan-derived quarterback battle between Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe. The fanbase became split when Zappe replaced the injured Mac Jones, and the offense seemingly improved. While it's now widely acknowledged that Jones didn't receive a fair opportunity, there are […]
The entire 2022 Patriots' season was overshadowed by storylines involving Matt Patricia, Joe Judge, and the fan-derived quarterback battle between Mac Jones and Bailey Zappe. The fanbase became split when Zappe replaced the injured Mac Jones, and the offense seemingly improved.
While it's now widely acknowledged that Jones didn't receive a fair opportunity, there are still fans who exaggerate Zappe's performance during his stint. Now, don't get me wrong, Zappe fulfilled his responsibilities and demonstrated enough competence to warrant a place in this league, but some fans were starstruck by the increase in offensive output without considering the surrounding circumstances. It became a common occurrence for Zappe chants to erupt at unwarranted moments as the season progressed further increasing the controversy.
I think it is important to remind some people of the circumstances Zappe was handed. In the "Zappe breakout" game against the Detroit Lions in week five, he finished with 188 yards, one touchdown, and one interception. The Patriots took a relatively conservative approach to his first NFL start, only allowing Zappe to drop back to pass 22 times.
Entering week nine, Detroit was 1-6 and had one of the worst defenses in NFL history. Dating back to 2000, there have been 734 single-team defensive performances, at that point in the season, the Detroit Lions ranked 734 in EPA per drive. That's dead last. The defense improved as the season went on, but when the Patriots played the Lions in week five, it was against a historically poor defense.
The "Zappe fever" continued to intensify the following week when the Patriots faced off against the Cleveland Browns. Zappe had an impressive performance in his second NFL start, throwing for 309 yards and two touchdowns. At first glance, it was an impressive feat, and it truly was but Zappe's situation was once again uniquely favorable.
It was a similar story to the previous week. By this point in the season, the Browns had a woeful defense, ranking as the second-worst total defense in the NFL in EPA/play, only in front of the aforementioned historically bad defense.
Zappe had the luxury of throwing to frequently wide-open receivers and wasn't required to make many challenging throws. According to PFF, Zappe only recorded one big-time throw compared to two turnover-worthy plays in his three games. Among the 49 quarterbacks who had at least 99 drop-backs, Zappe ranked last in terms of "big-time throw" percentage and the fourth lowest "turnover-worthy play" percentage. While Zappe generally protected the ball, he didn't make throws that required high levels of difficulty.
PFF describes "big-time throws" as passes with "excellent ball location and timing, generally thrown further down the field and/or into a tighter window.
In his third NFL start, things became more challenging for Zappe. It was the first time he felt uneasy and encountered tight coverages. Although Zappe didn't play every snap, he had the majority of quarterback reps. Zappe finished with 185 yards, one touchdown, and two interceptions.
Despite the increased difficulty, the Bears' defense was also below average. Going into this game, they ranked 20th in total defense based on EPA/play, slightly better than the opponents Zappe faced in the previous two weeks.
With all of that said, I don't want to come off like I am diminishing Zappe's accomplishments; he displayed good rhythm, timing, and mostly accurate throws in his first few NFL starts.
I wrote this article intending to manage expectations and to help cool the "Zappe fever". I included tweets in which I closely examine Zappe's individual performance in relation to the overall circumstances, aiming to provide context for the offensive improvement that Patriots fans witnessed. There is no doubt that he had favorable matchups to start his career, and while I think he showed he belongs in the NFL, he did not show enough to supplant Mac Jones as the starting QB. The Patriots coaching staff seems to share this sentiment too, as they are treating Jones as the starter during the early stages of the off-season.
