Moments before Baltimore Ravens head coach John Harbaugh spoke to the media from the annual NFL owners meetings, Ravens quarterback and 2019 NFL MVP Lamar Jackson dropped a bomb on Twitter, publicly revealing his existing request to be traded from the Ravens amidst recent contract negotiations. The timing of that announcement was no coincidence. 

The Ravens used their non-exclusive franchise tag on Jackson following the 2022 season. That tag allows Jackson to negotiate with other teams, but gives Baltimore the right to match any offer sheet Jackson agrees to or receive two first-round picks from the team signing him.

Should Jackson sign his franchise tag, he would make $32.4 million in 2023.

This is a situation that has been brewing for quite some time. Back in September, it was reported that Jackson had turned down a five-year extension offer worth over $250 million with $133 million guaranteed at signing.

Jackson was said to be hung up on the guarantees in the deal, especially after Deshaun Watson got his five years and $230 million fully guaranteed by the Cleveland Browns. Baltimore, however, "balked" at Jackson's request for a fully guaranteed contract.

Fast forward six months, and here we are again. The Ravens are digging their heels in and Jackson is requesting a trade while the list of potential suitors begins to dwindle.

A number of teams needing a quarterback are either well positioned to get one in the 2023 NFL Draft (Carolina, Houston) or moved on a QB in free agency (Las Vegas, Seattle). That leaves just a handful of franchises that are in QB purgatory as the projected favorites to land Jackson, and the Tennessee Titans are one of them.

On Bookies.com, Tennessee is currently the betting favorite (+400) to be Jackson's next team, just ahead of the Minnesota Vikings (+450), New England Patriots (+450) and division rival Indianapolis Colts (+750). A few NFL analysts and executives have also named the Titans as an ideal fit for the former MVP.

So what would it cost the Titans to land Lamar Jackson? Is it even feasible? Let's dive in.

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THE CONTRACT

Let's start with the contract. It's unlikely that any current NFL owner is going to sign off on giving Jackson a fully guaranteed contract, much less one that is in excess of what Watson got from Cleveland. Owners simply don't like guaranteed money, and two of the top free agent quarterbacks getting fully guaranteed deals in back-to-back offseasons would make that the new standard for a franchise QB moving forward.

A fair compromise would probably be one where Jackson drops his demand for the contract to be fully guaranteed. That much has already been speculated by Ian Rapoport who told The Pat McAfee Show that he "hasn't heard that there are contract demands from Lamar Jackson and doesn't believe he wants a fully guaranteed deal."

In exchange for moving off this point, Jackson could probably make himself the highest paid player in the history of the sport in contract AAV (Average Annual Value). That title currently belongs to Aaron Rodgers, who makes $50,271,667 per year under the extension he signed with Green Bay. Jackson could also benefit from avoiding a long-term extension of more than 4-5 years, positioning himself ideally to capitalize on the growing salary cap in the near future.

Say it was a four-year deal. The total contract value could get up over $200 million with at least the first two or three years fully guaranteed and injury protection written in. Joel Corry, a former sports agent who now writes articles about NFL contracts and the salary cap for CBS Sports suggested the following deal for Jackson last month:

Length: 4 Years
Average yearly salary: $52.5 million
Total: $210 million
Overall contract guarantees: $170 million
Fully guaranteed at signing: $150 million
Signing bonus: $85 million
First-year cash: $99 million (47.14%)
First two years cash: $130 million (61.9%)
First three years cash: $170 million (80.95%)

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WHAT IT WOULD TAKE

What would the Titans need to do to make a contract like that work? For starters, they would need to clear salary cap space. At present, Tennessee has just over $7 million in available cap space, but will need approximately $4.3 million of that for their impending draft picks. That's obviously not going to cut it.

While cutting or trading Ryan Tannehill after June 1st would free up $27 million in cap space, that would still not be enough to take on a $35.25 million cap number for Jackson. It would take moving on from Tannehill, and then finding an additional $5.55 million or so to come off the books. 

The Titans could get that money from releasing players with a high base salary (Byard, Henry, etc.), restructuring an existing contract to lower the 2023 cap hit, or perhaps by extending Jeffery Simmons, which could have the same effect. Getting under the 2023 cap would be challenging, but not impossible, and the Titans would have a good opportunity to reset and build around Jackson's contract next offseason. 

Now let's talk about the draft picks going to Baltimore. The Titans (or any other inquiring team) would have two options.

Option 1: Negotiate that contract with Jackson and hope that Baltimore does not match the offer sheet. If they don't, the Titans would then surrender two first-round draft picks to the Ravens. If the deal is done after the 2023 NFL Draft, the picks going to Baltimore would be Tennessee's 2024 and 2025 first-round selections.

Option 2: Assure you get Jackson by agreeing to the framework of a trade with Baltimore outside of the franchise tag's parameters. The Titans would need to simultaneously negotiate a deal with Jackson, and once all parties are in agreement, Jackson would sign his tag with the Ravens and then be traded for assets before signing a massive extension (the negotiated deal) with Tennessee. This would likely cost two first-rounders, plus additional picks or players (maybe Ryan Tannehill). 

Because Baltimore has the leverage of matching any offer sheet Jackson agrees to sign, sweetening the pot in a separate trade could incentivize the Ravens to let him go. All Baltimore has to do is claim they'll match the contract and the team set to sign Jackson will either be forced to add assets to the deal or call their bluff. 

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To summarize, going to get Lamar Jackson would likely cost the Titans over $200 million in total, most of it fully guaranteed, and a minimum of two first-round draft picks. On top of that, getting under the salary cap in 2023 with Jackson's new deal on the books would force Tennessee to move on from Ryan Tannehill, and potentially Derrick Henry or Kevin Byard.

Is all that worth it? Maybe. No position in football is more valuable than the quarterback and no quarterback in the NFL was more dangerous than Lamar in 2019. His 3,000+ passing yard, 1,200+ rushing yard, 43 touchdown, six interception season was awarded with the MVP award for good reason. If that's the Lamar you're getting, you won't regret it for a second.

If it's the 18 touchdowns and 16 turnovers 2021 version or the 10 missed games in two seasons Lamar, you may be living with buyer's remorse for a long time.

Image via Rich Barnes-USA TODAY Sports