Michigan head coach Sherrone Moore doubles down on bad situational decisions that hurt Wolverines chances in loss to Oklahoma
Sherrone Moore goes with his gut, but it didn’t pan out against Oklahoma
The dust has settled on the Michigan Wolverines loss to the Oklahoma Sooners, but the pain is certainly still being felt by the fan base and the entire program. Bryce Underwood and the passing offense disappointed. The run game was abysmal outside of one Justice Haynes run. However, it wasn’t all on the players.
Sherrone Moore and his staff showed signs of repeat issues when it came to in-game decision making that may have made things worse against the Sooners. When asked about those in-game decisions this week, coach Moore surprisingly doubled down. Was it the right call? Or does Michigan have a potential problem?
Sherrone Moore doubles down on bad in-game situational decision making, ignoring the analytics
After the game, many fans and media members had some questions on the two (nearly back to back) burned timeouts that Sherrone More called, inevitably costing the Wolverines any chance of stopping the clock late in the game on Oklahoma’s long final drive. Unfortunately, those errant timeouts were really the least of coach Moore’s decision making issues against Oklahoma.
In this modern era of analytics most coaches at the highest level have come to value going for it on 4th down in the right situations. Sherrone Moore and his staff still haven’t apparently gotten the memo there.
Oklahoma scored on the opening drive of the game, taking an early seven-point lead. Michigan was finding some decent success on their first drive too, making it to the Oklahoma 47-yard line. But then instead of going for it in Sooners territory on 4th and 5, Michigan punted the ball. 20 years ago that call would seem like a no brainer. In today’s game, that is almost always (surprisingly, if you’re not acquainted with the situational probabilities) a “go for it” situation.
Then again on the very next drive Michigan punted on Oklahoma’s 38-yard line, not even attempting a field goal (it was 4th and 14 so not a go for it down). Maybe that was out of their kicker’s range, given that the Wolverines missed a 32-yard field goal on the next drive. However, the decisions got worse from there.
Third quarter. Michigan’s offense hadn’t been able to do much of anything, but they get a big break–Oklahoma fumbled the ball in their own territory and the Wolverines recovered. Michigan’s offense gets to the Oklahoma 23-yard line. It’s 4th and 2, down by 14 points, and instead of going for it Sherrone Moore decides to kick a field goal. Yes–if you’re keeping score at home–they made the field goal, but the two possession game stayed a two possession game halfway through the third quarter.
Then finally, Michigan is driving late in the third quarter, still down 21-10, but they’ve racked up 60 yards. It’s the Wolverines’ best drive of the day. They get all the way down to the Oklahoma 17-yard line and it’s 4th and 6. Again, coach Moore has his team kick another field goal to bring the game to an eight-point deficit–technically a one possession game. That’s the one toss-up where it was technically “okay” to settle for the field goal via analytical modeling, but the win probability boost would have been huge if Michigan converted for a first instead. When questioned about the extremely conservative situational decision making Sherrone Moore had this to say:
“The early one, it was 4th and 2. It was on the 40-yard line. Those are situations where, yeah, you can kick the field goal, but when you can pin them deep like we did on the 5-yard line it’s a long field for any offense to execute. They went four plays and had to punt it. For us, there’s all those types of decisions that you’ve got to make. There’s the analytics piece of it, but there’s also a feeling of how you feel in the game in those certain situations, of how the defense is playing, and what you’re doing. It’s a collective thought process when we do that for sure.”
Michigan Wolverines News
Michigan Wolverines loss to Oklahoma Sooners a sign of repeat problems under new coaching staff that they have to solve if they want to play in College Football Playoffs
The Michigan Wolverines have a major problem with their coaching staff that has marred the team’s success in recent years.
Sherrone Moore went with his gut against Oklahoma Sooners and it cost the Wolverines
The average fan and media member likely does not understand the exact complexities or probability added that incentivizes modern coaches to go for it in the right 4th down situations, but college football coaches at the highest level of the sport certainly should. Yet still, Sherrone Moore insisted that his gut knows best:
“Yeah, you get the analytics answer in real time. [Sometimes it] says 4th and two, 4th and 1 or better–4th and 4 or better. Sometimes when it says 4th and five or better, I’m like, ‘I don’t know about that one.’ That’s a long distance at certain times. So, usually just go with the gut.”
Sorry, coach Moore. Just going with your gut in 2025 isn’t going to cut it. Every game situation is unique, but when the expected probability differentials are presented and you ignore them constantly throughout a game where every single edge is needed to win then that’s got to be considered something close to coaching malpractice. It was always going to be incredibly difficult to go into Norman with a true freshman quarterback and less-than-elite wide receivers and win. Poor situational decisions made sure that it was truly impossible.
Somehow Moore and his staff must have forgotten that they just converted over 70% of their 4th downs last season with one of their worst offenses in program history. Had they just converted one or two more 4th downs the entire end of game script could have gone differently. Hopefully coach Moore and his staff decide to join the 21st century with their decision making in the future. If they don’t, Michigan fans can expect an extra loss or two that didn’t need to happen in the near future.
We’ll be back with more Michigan Wolverines coverage here at A to Z Sports soon! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!
And if you want to hear more from Moore on his decision-making and what went in to choosing Biff Poggi as the interim head coach while he’s out with suspension for the next two weeks you can find that in the post below.
