Jordan Love vs. Aaron Rodgers comparison reveals key differences ahead of the major Packers-Steelers matchup
Quarterbacks will face off for the first time on Sunday, when the Packers go to Pittsburgh to play the Steelers on “Sunday Night Football” in Week 8.
Five years ago, it was basically unimaginable to expect the Green Bay Packers to draft a quarterback in the first round. Well, expect that they are the Green Bay Packers. The future is always in mind, and when general manager Brian Gutekunst had the chance to take Aaron Rodgers’ successor, he pulled the trigger.
Now, most reasonable people would agree that it was the correct decision. Love spent three years as Rodgers’ backup, but eventually became the starter and has consistently played at a high level — with stretches of elite performance.
Meanwhile, after the Packers traded Rodgers in 2023, he had two frustrating seasons with the New York Jets — one because of injuries, another due to individual performance and team results. Now, he’s with the Pittsburgh Steelers, and while Rodgers has been an upgrade over what they had with Russell Wilson and Justin Fields in 2024, he’s far removed from his prime.
On Sunday, Rodgers plays the Packers for the first time in his career.
A comparison between Love and Rodgers
Packers head coach Matt LaFleur and Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith have similar offensive principles. After all, they worked together for a year with the Tennessee Titans in 2018, and Smith was promoted to OC when LaFleur left in 2019.
Despite the schematic similarities, it’s hard to argue that the Packers have more offensive talent. That being said, some stats — and the combination of them — help isolate individual performance to understand how Jordan Love and Aaron Rodgers are actually playing and contributing to their teams.
Jordan Love’s key stats
- 1st in adjusted EPA/play
- 3rd in success rate
- 5th in CPOE
- 7th in QBR
- 8th in PFF passing grade
- 15th in air yards
- 7th in big-time throw rate
- 23rd best in turnover-worthy play rate
The Packers’ offense has been extremely productive and efficient, creating big plays and avoiding mistakes. That’s why Love leads the league in adjusted EPA/play, a metric that evaluates expected points added per play, but excluding events outside of the quarterback’s control, like drops and yards after the catch — plus other in-game complexities.
Love has also been consistent on a down-to-down basis, which is measured by success rate. He’s creating more than what the offense gives him, inside the top 5 in completion percentage over expectation.
Aaron Rodgers’ key stats
- 11th in adjusted EPA/play
- 20th in success rate
- 8th in CPOE
- 19th in QBR
- 21st in PFF passing grade
- 32nd in air yards
- 10th in big-time throw rate
- 28th best in turnover-worthy play rate
Rodgers is still a fairly efficient quarterback, even though the production on a down-to-down basis hasn’t been there. The veteran has high completion numbers, but that’s mostly because he throws it short more than most — he’s 32nd of 34 quarterbacks with at least 112 plays in air yards per attempt.
Aaron Rodgers is still able to be accurate and have a big play here and there, but he’s been more susceptible to mistakes than he had in years past — his turnover-worthy play rate (3.6 percent) is his worst since becoming a starter back in 2008.
Right now, Jordan Love is evidently better than Aaron Rodgers. The film and advanced stats would both confirm that perception. The veteran is still capable of doing great plays, and his game awareness is elite. However, the Packers made the right call, independently of what happens on Sunday night.
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