Texas Longhorns redshirt sophomore quarterback Arch Manning hasn’t had the season that many folks in the national media predicted.

Manning, who is currently in the concussion protocol ahead of the Longhorns’ upcoming game against Vanderbilt, entered the 2025 season with sky-high expectations. The former five-star recruit was viewed by many as the preseason favorite to win the Heisman Trophy, despite having just two career starts under his belt coming into the season.

Those lofty expectations, of course, were never fair. Manning, like any college athlete, is still developing as a player. There are going to be ups and downs as he develops on his own unique timeline (development isn’t linear).

Texas, by the way, is 6-2 through eight games. Manning has passed for 1,795 yards, 15 touchdowns and six interceptions while also rushing for 199 yards and six touchdowns. He isn’t putting up crazy eye-popping numbers, but he still has the Longhorns in a position to reach the College Football Playoff if the program can win out (which will be no easy task with games remaining against Vanderbilt, Georgia, Arkansas, and Texas A&M).

ESPN’s Pete Thamel questions if Arch Manning will return to Texas in 2026

Perhaps due to Manning’s up-and-down play this season, speculation is already swirling about whether he’ll return to Texas in 2026.

ESPN’s Pete Thamel said on the College GameDay Podcast this week that he doesn’t think it’s a no brainer that Manning will be back at Texas next season.

“It will be interesting to see as Arch goes through concussion protocol, as we talk about this on Wednesday, if we end up seeing Matthew Caldwell, the Troy transfer,” said Thamel. “He had another cameo late in a game where he came in and zipped a pass [against Florida]. And he looked great.

“Again, the very limited times we’ve seen [Caldwell] in high leverage situations, he has looked great. A fascinating philosophical question as we move on here — again, Texas only has two losses [and] Arch is showing some improvement — is, just from the macro, is Arch Manning the quarterback at Texas next year? I think that’s a fascinating philosophical question as we sit here — because it’s certainly not a no brainer answer that it’s yes at this point.”

Thamel’s co-host, Rece Davis, had a very different view of Manning’s future with the Longhorns. Davis believes that Manning will “definitely” be the quarterback at Texas in 2026.

“I think he’s definitely the quarterback there next year,” said Davis. “He has not played to the level that many, including me, thought that he would or could. And [Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian] has said they probably asked some things (of Arch) that they weren’t ready around him to do. They’ve got to get better up front. I think he definitely is (back at Texas in 2026), and I think they’ll get better up front, and I think next year will be a much more productive year.”

You never say never in college football, but I tend to side with Davis here. I don’t see Manning jumping to the NFL after the season he’s had. And I don’t see him jumping in the transfer portal, which would essentially reset his development with a new coaching staff. Crazy things happen in this sport almost daily, but I feel pretty good about Arch returning to Austin as the Longhorns’ starting quarterback in 2026.

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Zach Ragan