College Football Playoff Rankings: Committee already way off on first bracket release with Oregon, Notre Dame, and more

College Football Playoff Committee should be properly weighting strength of schedule, strength of record, and other meaningful metrics, but they are not

The first College Football Playoff rankings show is in the books and the committee is already struggling. The criteria that the committee is supposed to use has become more clear in recent years, but there are already some consistency issues and examples where the committee just doesn’t have a full understanding of who certain teams are.

In case you missed it, here are the 12 teams (in order of playoff seeding) that would be in the College Football Playoff if it began tomorrow according to the committee:

1 – Ohio State Buckeyes (first round bye)
2 – Indiana Hoosiers (first round bye)
3 – Texas A&M Aggies (first round bye)
4 – Alabama Crimson Tide (first round bye)
5 – Georgia Bulldogs (first round home game)
6 – Ole Miss Rebels (first round home game
7 – BYU Cougars (first round home game)
8 – Texas Tech Red Raiders (first round home game)
9 – Oregon Ducks (first round @ Texas Tech)
10 – Notre Dame Fighting Irish (first round @ BYU)
11 – Virginia (first round @ Ole Miss)
12 – Memphis (first round @ Georgia)

Our team at A to Z Sports decided to do our own rankings since the committee already has things out of order. We then broke down our top 12 and staff members who cover many of the teams involved laid out their arguments for or against their current playoff seeding. Enjoy!

Key stats that impacted our College Football Playoff Bracket differences

  • The Louisville Cardinals have a superior overall strength of schedule, strength of record, significant edges in most every single offensive and defensive efficiency metric for the season compared to Virginia, and were playing with a dinged up recovering offensive line when they faced off head to head with the Cavaliers
  • The Oregon Ducks have higher marks in offensive yards per play and yards per rush than any team in the initial College Football Playoff bracket with their only loss coming to Indiana (who the committee has ranked second)
  • The Texas A&M Aggies has a stronger strength of record, superior marks in offensive EPA per play, third down defense, havoc rates, and several other key statistical performance measures when compared to the Indiana Hoosiers

A to Z Top 25 College Football Playoff Rankings

  1. Ohio State (Playoff Seed: 1)
  2. Texas A&M (2)
  3. Indiana (3)
  4. Alabama (4)
  5. Georgia (5)
  6. Oregon (6)
  7. Ole Miss (7)
  8. BYU (8)
  9. Notre Dame (9)
  10. Texas Tech (10)
  11. Oklahoma
  12. Texas
  13. Louisville (11)
  14. Utah
  15. Virginia
  16. Georgia Tech
  17. Vanderbilt
  18. Miami
  19. USC
  20. Michigan
  21. Missouri
  22. Memphis (12)
  23. Washington
  24. Cincinnati
  25. Tennessee

Our staff nearly had the same 12 as the playoff committee, but we were significantly higher on the Oregon Ducks, Texas A&M Aggies, Notre Dame, and the Louisville Cardinals. Our staff of experts were lower on Ole Miss, BYU, Texas Tech, and Virginia. The only team our staff had “in” that the committee did not was the Louisville Cardinals because despite the head to head result with Virginia, everything else on the resumes of both teams lean in favor of the Cardinals (who were battling offensive line injuries amid their game against Virginia).

(1) Ohio State Buckeyes

The first edition of the College Football Playoff rankings brought good news for Ohio State, especially with how a couple of their wins were evaluated. Despite a pair of losses, the Texas Longhorns have climbed to No. 11 in the rankings, making that Week 1 win look even stronger for the Buckeyes. Ohio State’s road victory over the Washington Huskies — now ranked No. 23 — also stands out as an impressive Big Ten debut. With a dominant defense and an offense that’s starting to look unguardable, the Buckeyes are right where they want to be. – Brandon Little, A to Z Sports Ohio State

(2) Texas A&M Aggies

Texas A&M has aced every single test in front of them in dominant fashion, and I think they simply deserve to be ranked higher than Indiana based on their overall strength of record. I will grant Indiana has a fantastic win over Oregon (even if Oregon’s resume right now is suspect at best), but A&M has the better non-conference win in Notre Dame and are simply playing better teams than Indiana is and still dominating the competition. Even in their close games against Arkansas and Auburn, they thoroughly outplayed the other team, and they are incredibly well-balanced. It was neck-and-neck between A&M and Indiana, and you can call me SEC-biased, but A&M’s overall schedule gives them the nod for me over the Hoosiers. – AJ Schulte, A to Z Sports Oklahoma

(3) Indiana Hoosiers

After a full season of so many of my colleagues undervaluing Indiana, you’d think I would be prepared for so many to have them at three instead of two. But here I am, shocked to see only three people, including myself, have them as number two in our college football playoff rankings. Indiana checks the eye test box and has arguably the best resume of any undefeated team. For example, they are the only team in the top 25 to have two road wins against teams ranking in the top 20, with wins at 9 Oregon and at 20 Iowa. I had Ohio State 1, but I think there’s a better argument for Indiana to be one than having them three. – Destin Adams, A to Z Sports Indianapolis

(4) Alabama Crimson Tide

If Alabama can close the season strong and capture another top 25 win against the Oklahoma Sooners, that will give the Crimson Tide five top 25 wins, based on the initial set of rankings. That immediately makes for one of, if not the best, resumes in the sport. If not for the Week 1 blunder against FSU, Alabama would probably be in consideration for the first overall seed. Alabama has been that good outside of two and a half quarters against South Carolina. It’s all out in front of the Crimson Tide, but it starts by avoiding the interim coach bump that a well-rested LSU will have on Saturday night. – Rob Gregson, A to Z Sports Alabama

(5) Georgia Bulldogs

It’s funny that our A to Z Sports staff agreed with the playoff committee exactly here, putting the Georgia Bulldogs at fifth overall because we’re likely both too high on this season’s Kirby Smart team. This team keeps winning, but they often do not deserve it for more than three quarters of their games. They lost to Alabama. They needed overtime against Tennessee (and significant luck on a missed kick to even get there). Georgia was about to go down by 17 to Auburn before a punch-out fumble on the goal line. They allowed five straight touchdowns to Ole Miss. Then this week, before the Bulldogs earned the five seed overall they barely beat the Florida Gators who just fired their head coach 24-20. On top of that, the Bulldogs defense ranks 132nd among FBS team in sacks. This resume is hanging by a thread. – Travis May, A to Z Sports College Football & NFL Draft Managing Editor

(6) Oregon Ducks

The Oregon Ducks opened the College Football Playoff Rankings at number nine – three spots down from the number six AP Poll ranking. The fall in ranking is a bit surprising as Oregon is normally a team that gets the benefit of the doubt from the committee given the team’s high end talent and pedigree. While Oregon’s strength of schedule is certainly a question, it is surprising to see programs like BYU and Texas Tech ranked above a program like the Ducks – especially when the Ducks lone loss is to the number two ranked team in the country. There’s still plenty of ball to be played and the Ducks have three ranked teams left on the schedule to boost their strength of schedule, but the committee is clearly down on the Ducks as of now. – Brentley Weissman, A to Z Sports Oregon

(7) Ole Miss Rebels

The back half of the top ten for these initial CFP rankings are a bit of a whirlwind. Depending on who you ask, you could get about five to six different answers on who should get the six or seven seed, respectively. I understand giving the nod to Oregon due to their dominance in games they were expected to win, but they do lack a signature win. They played Indiana extremely tight and had avenues to win that game but didn’t get the job done. For Ole Miss, one of the weaker SEC schedules has helped them garner this magnitude of ranking, but they also won on the road at Oklahoma – nothing to sneeze at. Some of the preseason notions have definitely given an upper hand to the Ducks over the Rebels, but only time will tell which one prevails. – Adam Holt, A to Z Sports New Orleans Saints and LSU

(8) BYU Cougars

BYU has simply not played a great schedule nor have they looked all that impressive in some of their games, despite continually winning. The big issue for me is on defense. They can get bullied on the line of scrimmage and you can run right down their throat. Pair that with a very inconsistent true freshman quarterback and that’s why I have them lower than the committee (as does the rest of our team). – Tyler Forness, A to Z Sports Florida

(9) Notre Dame Fighting Irish

While Notre Dame has two losses, it’s important to consider that both those games were to begin a season with a first year starting quarterback. Since then, CJ Carr has slowly been developing into one of the best young signal callers in the country. Their running game has also been coming on along strong, carried by superstar Jeremiyah Love and Jadarian Price. With the defensive improvements, this is a team heading in a great direction, and routinely dominating lesser opponents. If the progression stays consistent, they are going to be hard to beat when the playoffs begin. They appear to be a well rounded group. – Ryan Roberts, A to Z Sports Notre Dame

(10) Texas Tech Red Raiders

The Texas Tech Red Raiders are a good football team, one of the better teams in the country, but eight feels a little high to me from the committee. Their starting quarterback Behren Morton has been dealing with a ton of injuries. While he’s been out, backup Will Hammond has had moments where he’s looked better, but he’s now out for the year with an ACL injury. Texas Tech’s schedule hasn’t been the toughest, and there are certainly teams above them whose schedule is much harder, The same can be said for some of the teams below them. However, Saturday against BYU will really tell us how good this team is. If they beat BYU, I can see them being worth an eight seed or better, but not yet. – Justin Churchill, A to Z Sports Oklahoma

(11) Louisville Cardinals

One of the biggest discrepancies our team had was Louisville over Virginia. Each varied between the 10th and 17th spots when our team collaboratively ranked the best 25 teams in the country, but Louisville narrowly edged the Cavaliers out. The Cardinals are more balanced with their production through the air and on the ground on both sides of the ball against a stronger overall strength of schedule, proving they have a slightly better chance of competing against higher tier opponents in the College Football Playoff. – Ian Valentino, A to Z Sports LSU

Memphis Tigers

The College Football Playoff committee didn’t even rank Memphis inside their top 25, yet still gave them the nod for the 12 seed. Our team ranked the Tigers 22nd overall thanks to their impressive 8-1 record and top 20 overall offense in the country via EPA per play, pass success rate, rush success rate, and more. If Memphis takes care of business down the stretch with their schedule they’re a shoe-in for the 12 seed and should already be ranked. They have to beat Tulane, East Carolina, Navy, and then win their conference championship to truly lock up a spot, but that’s likely. The only other non-AAC team that likely has a shot among non-power conference schools is probably San Diego State (currently at 7-1 overall). – Travis May, A to Z Sports College Football & NFL Draft Managing Editor

We’ll be back with more College Football coverage here at A to Z Sports every day of the year! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!

This article was originally published on A to Z Sports College Football, as College Football Playoff Rankings: Committee already way off on first bracket release with Oregon, Notre Dame, and more.