This Big Ten matchup was supposed to be one of the games of the year. Indiana and Penn State “could both enter this week undefeated”. That didn’t happen. James Franklin has been fired as Penn State’s head coach. Drew Allar is injured and out for the year at quarterback. However, this game might end up being closer than many expect.

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza is looking like the best passer in the country and head coach Curt Cignetti loves to run up the score. But will Indiana be able to do that? Penn State’s run game and conservative game control approach with new quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer at the helm has kept them in games two weeks in a row now, and the Nittany Lions would love to play spoilers.

Given how important this game is going to be deciding the path to the College Football Playoff for Indiana and how thirsty Penn State fans are for a win, media members from A to Z Sports who cover both teams decided to weigh in, predicting a winner. The picks are in. Enjoy!

Indiana 27, Penn State 20

The Indiana Hoosiers have looked rather unstoppable this season, but have also looked quite human when facing off against defenses with a pulse. The only two teams who have shown much resistance all year have been Oregon and Iowa, who the Hoosiers averaged just 25 points against in their fifth and sixth games of the season. Penn State’s defense has a similar formula with a couple special pass rushers and smart safeties who have the Nittany Lions ranked inside the top ten at stopping explosive plays. This game has the potential to be much closer than experts expect thanks to Penn State’s intentional slowing of the game and defensive capabilities to force everything underneath. The problem will be that new starting quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer won’t be able to score enough to pull off the upset. – Travis May, A to Z Sports CFB & NFL Draft Managing Editor

Indiana 34, Penn State 20

Back in August, this looked like a premier Big Ten showdown. Now it’s a collision between two programs moving in opposite directions. Penn State opened as the nation’s No. 2 team. Five straight conference losses later, the Nittany Lions (3-5, 0-5) aren’t ranked at all. Indiana (9-0, 6-0), meanwhile, has emerged as a legitimate national title contender and will arrive at Beaver Stadium on Saturday as a 14.5-point favorite for the Noon ET kickoff on FOX. The Hoosiers have built their undefeated season on physicality and a balanced offensive attack. Last week, they held Maryland to just 37 rushing yards – and did it without All-American linebacker Aiden Fisher. That’s the kind of depth and discipline that separates contenders from pretenders.

Penn State’s collapse, by contrast, has been total. Losing quarterback Drew Allar and head coach James Franklin in the same week would test any program. Freshman Ethan Grunkemeyer has managed the offense conservatively since taking over, leaning heavily on Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton in the backfield. But the drives keep stalling. The execution falters. And the margin for error has disappeared. Penn State still has enough talent to make this competitive for a half. But Indiana’s defense travels, and the Hoosiers have shown they can win in hostile environments without flinching. – Nick Wright, A to Z Sports Texas

Indiana 34, Penn State 17

Many circled this game ahead of the season as a good litmus test for how good Indiana and Penn State could be this year. Things have fallen completely off the rails for the Nittany Lions since, though, and now the expectation is for the No. 2 ranked Hoosiers to dominate. Winning at Happy Valley is still not an easy task, even if I think the Hoosiers have significantly more talent on both sides of the ball. I have Indiana winning and covering the 14.5-point spread, but I fully expect this to be a one-score game at halftime. – Destin Adams, A to Z Sports Indianapolis

Indiana 42, Penn State 17

Indiana enters Saturday’s matchup at Penn State looking every bit like one of the most complete teams in college football, and it’s hard to argue otherwise. Quarterback Fernando Mendoza has firmly inserted himself into the Heisman Trophy conversation with his poise, accuracy, and ability to elevate a dynamic group of skill players who can hurt defenses in multiple ways. Defensively, the Hoosiers have been equally impressive, playing disciplined, assignment-sound football that limits explosive plays and forces opponents into mistakes. On the other sideline, Penn State has endured a disappointing season, failing to live up to preseason expectations. The Nittany Lions did show some grit in their loss to Ohio State, but consistency and execution have been glaring issues. Indiana’s depth, balance, and confidence should prove too much for Penn State to handle. – Brentley Weissman, A to Z Sports Oregon

Final Score Predictions for Indiana vs. Penn State

The A to Z Sports staff is almost exactly on par with the betting markets here for the most part. On average, the team expects Indiana to win 34-19, with there being some potential that Penn State slows the game down enough to keep it closer. Still, if Fernando Mendoza keeps averaging at least one interception per game like he has recently, there’s going to be a chance for surprise.

We’ll be back with more Indiana Hoosiers and Penn State Nittany Lions coverage here at A to Z Sports soon! Follow me (@FF_TravisM) and A to Z Sports (@AtoZSportsNFL) on X for all the latest football news!

This article was originally published on A to Z Sports NFL Draft, as Final score predictions for Indiana vs. Penn State: Will Hoosiers keep their playoff bye or can Nittany Lions pull the upset?