Expert College Football Playoff model gives Alabama harsh reality check if they lose to Oklahoma this week
The Alabama Crimson Tide entered game week against the No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners as seven-point favorites. Despite being the home favorite, Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer has his staff and players singing a tune that includes the need for improvement. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb has embraced switching sideline signals and even calling his problem areas […]
The Alabama Crimson Tide entered game week against the No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners as seven-point favorites. Despite being the home favorite, Alabama head coach Kalen DeBoer has his staff and players singing a tune that includes the need for improvement. Offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb has embraced switching sideline signals and even calling his problem areas out.
Alabama is sitting pretty at fourth in the AP poll rankings, but the Crimson Tide can’t sit back and relax. The latest College Football Playoff odds are promising for DeBoer to make his debut in the postseason bracket with the Tide, but that could change in a flash. In fact, losing this week would bring more severe consequences than you’d imagine.
Here’s what SportsLine shared this week in regards to CFP odds as we enter this weekend.
Alabama CFP odds would plummet with upset loss to Oklahoma
Currently, the Crimson Tide has a 94.5% chance of making the College Football Playoff. That trails only Ohio State, Texas A&M, Indiana, Georgia, and Ole Miss. Only Oregon has higher odds than 71% but lower than Alabama’s mark.
The problem we can see right away, though, is if Alabama loses this week. While they’re touchdown favorites over Oklahoma and playing at home, the Sooners currently have only a 16.3% chance of making the Playoff. It’s possible we’d see Alabama and Oklahoma get closer to flipping than keeping Alabama in the top 12 if the Sooners win.
This puts more pressure on DeBoer and his team to perform than was expected. With the SEC being so competitive at the top and there being a collision course for the conference title game, winning out will lock the Tide into a high seed. Even losing in the title game would be acceptable.
But suffering a second regular-season loss would put them at extreme risk of missing the Playoff again. And that would be a massive failure after we’ve seen the peaks of this talented group.
