The Colts’ chances of being the top seed in the AFC seem slim due to a reason completely out of their control

If the Colts are to end the season as the top seed in the AFC, they will have to overcome a tough obstacle.

Destin Adams NFL News Writer
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Colts QB Daniel Jones
Kirby Lee-Imagn Images

The Indianapolis Colts are off to an incredible start, entering their Week 11 bye with an 8-2 record. They are in first place in the AFC South and hold the top seed in the AFC playoff picture. With only one team earning a first-round bye, the top seed is a significant advantage.

Though they hold that spot now, it won’t be easy to keep, especially with how tough the Colts’ remaining schedule is following their bye. To make it even more difficult, one of the other top contenders has one of the easiest schedules remaining in the NFL. 

Colts’ remaining schedule looks tougher on paper compared to other top contenders for the AFC’s top seed

There are three teams in the AFC with an 8-2 record and another at 7-3. The Colts already beat two of the three teams sitting near the top of the AFC. They beat the 8-2 Denver Broncos in Week 2 and have a Week 7 win over the 7-3 Los Angeles Chargers.

The last team remaining is the New England Patriots, who the Colts won’t play, and are arguably their top competition for the conference’s top seed. 

The Colts have a tough road ahead if they are to accomplish that goal. Five of the team’s seven remaining games are against opponents with a record above .500, and the only one below is the team’s AFC South rivals, the Houston Texans. They are 4-5, but also have one of the best defenses in the league, and in no way should it be treated as an easy game for the Colts.

On the other hand, the Patriots only have one game remaining against an opponent with a record above .500, their divisional rivals, the Buffalo Bills.

They do face off against teams that are undeniably better than their record suggests, such as the Baltimore Ravens and the Cincinnati Bengals. Upsets happen on a nearly weekly basis in the NFL, and it’s nowhere near a given that the Patriots take advantage of their remaining schedule. On paper, however, they should certainly be viewed as the favorite to finish as the top seed in the AFC. 

Patriots remaining schedule

  • Week 11: Vs. New York Jets (2-7)
  • Week 12: @ Cincinnati Bengals (3-6)
  • Week 13: Vs. New York Giants (2-8)
  • Week 14: Bye Week
  • Week 15: Vs. Buffalo Bills (6-3)
  • Week 16: @ Baltimore Ravens (4-5)
  • Week 17: @ New York Jets (2-7)
  • Week 18: Vs. Miami Dolphins (3-7)

Colts’ remaining schedule after their Week 11 bye

  • Week 12: @ Kansas City Chiefs (5-4)
  • Week 13: Vs. Houston Texans (4-5)
  • Week 14: @ Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4)
  • Week 15: @ Seattle Seahawks (7-2)
  • Week 16: Vs. San Francisco 49ers (6-4)
  • Week 18: @ Houston Texans (4-5)
  • Week 17: Vs. Jacksonville Jaguars (5-4)