Two demands the Titans must make in a draft trade if history repeats itself in 2026 with first overall pick

With five games left to play, the Tennessee Titans have become (ever so slight) odds-on favorites to earn the first pick in the 2026 NFL Draft. They’re the only team with a single win so far this season, and each time they start to look like they may be headed for the necessary progress to compete for another, they seem to take another giant step backwards.

Having the first pick wouldn’t be foreign to GM Mike Borgonzi, who just dealt with having it in this past spring. I find it funny how every GM surely tells themselves to make it count, because they’re likely to never pick first overall again. And that’s true! But Mike Borgonzi may very well have the distinct pleasure (or displeasure, depending on how you look at) of having the top pick in both of his first two drafts as a GM. Lucky him…

The massive difference this time, of course, is how he’d be likely to use it. The Titans settled on Cam Ward as their QB of the future relatively early on in the process (I was first to begin reporting it in early March). If they get the same pick this season—or the second pick, for that matter—they’re amongst the likeliest trade-down candidates in recent draft history. There are a gaggle of teams that need QBs, there are QBs to be picked that high in this class, and Tennessee doesn’t need them. So start the bidding!

History is trying to repeat itself at the top of the 2026 NFL draft

Funny enough, the Titans are one of the only teams in the modern era to land the first overall pick and actually trade it away. Since the turn of the century, it’s happened three times: the Panthers trading up with the Bears in 2023 (Bryce Young), the Rams trading up with the Titans in 2016 (Jared Goff), and the Falcons trading up with the Chargers in 2001 (Michael Vick).

Another coincidence we’d see if the season ended today is the top two teams in the draft order not needing a quarterback. The Titans have Cam Ward and the Giants hold the second pick right now, and they’re certainly not giving up on Jaxson Dart yet. This is what happened in 2016 when the Titans traded down. That class was Jared Goff and Carson Wentz at the top of order, and the Titans and Browns both moved out of the top two picks where they went to the Rams and Eagles.

If this order holds in the final month of the season, it’ll make for some real draft season fireworks between the “have’s” (Titans, Giants) and the “have not’s” (Browns, Jets, Raiders, Rams, Steelers, Cardinals, etc). And as mock draft season starts kicking into high gear this winter, potential Titans trades need to have these two priorities in mind.

Mike Borgonzi’s list of Titans trade priorities

There are plenty of prospective trade partners for the Titans to court this year, should they have the top pick. Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza and Oregon’s Dante Moore are looking like picks one and two in this class heading into the College Football Playoff, and QB-needy teams are going to be antsy to position themselves to take one of them in April. Here’s the order of demands the Titans need to make:

1. Hand over that 2027 1st, pal
2. Get ready to pay the “keep my 2027 1st” tax in an absolute haul

I hate talking about draft classes more than a couple of months down the road, because we regularly develop preconceived notions about the strengths of a class or a position group that don’t end up materializing how we thought they would. But I will hesitantly join the chorus that’s slobbering over what the 2027 draft class looks like so far. College stars such as Arch Manning and Jeremiah Smith headline a group of blue chip, premium position players. And while this 2026 class is far from a “down year”, everybody’s high 2027 picks feel extra premium so far.

That’s why I would be seriously disappointed to see a trade like the one outlined by Dane Brugler in his new mock draft at The Athletic this week. He sends the first pick to the Browns for the fifth pick, the 26th pick, and “probably a 2027 Day 2 selection”.

While the actual details of mock trades aren’t the focus of Dane’s mock, this isn’t enough! When you plug this deal into the Fitzgerald/Spielberger draft trade value chart, it has the Titans winning by roughly 1400 points. In other words, the surplus value of a late 1st round pick.

Let’s take the Titans’ trade with the Rams in 2016 to draft Jared Goff. The Rams moved up from 15 to 1 instead of 5 to 1, so it’s reasonable to expect them to pay more of a premium in that situation. There’s a “blue chipper” tax you have to take into consideration with that big of a drop. Even still, the math on that trade came out to a surplus value of two 1sts in the early teens (~3500 points).

That’s a significant difference! And no matter how far down the Titans end up trading, if all of this comes to fruition by the end of the year, they need to be looking for value much closer to what they got exactly a decade ago.