The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still leading the NFC South after Sunday’s disastrous loss to the New Orleans Saints, albeit by the thinnest of threads.

At this point, only the winner of the NFC South is getting into the playoffs. The wild card race is shaping up to where it’s highly unlikely a team with six or more losses makes it and that’s before factoring in all the playoff tiebreakers and whatnot.

In other words: The 2025 winner of the NFCS will come down to the Bucs’ matchups against the Carolina Panthers in Weeks 16 and 18.

Outlining the Bucs’ playoff scenarios after the disastrous loss to the Saints

Head-to-head with the Panthers is the easiest way to get back atop the NFC South

This is the simplest path. If the Bucs sweep the Panthers, they’ll get in, regardless of what happens against the Atlanta Falcons and Miami Dolphins. Even if they dropped those two games, the Bucs would finish 9-8 and the best the Panthers could do would be 9-8, themselves. Therefore, the Bucs get in over the Panthers in this scenario.

However, it’s the same situation for the Bucs if they get swept. Rinse and repeat the above scenario, except make the Panthers the victors, and they get in over the Bucs.

Divisional tiebreakers if Bucs split with Panthers

This is where it gets a little more detailed, but it’s nothing crazy. If the series is split and the Bucs beat the Falcons in Week 15, but the Panthers lose to the Saints, then the Bucs are in. Again, just like above, it’s the flip side for the Bucs. If the series is split, but the Bucs lose to the Falcons and the Panthers beat the Saints – the Bucs are out due to the fact Tampa Bay can only finish with nine wins, at best, and Carolina will hold a 4-2 division record compared to the Bucs’ 3-3.

Common opponent playoff tiebreaker if it’s a split series and both teams beat or lose to their NFCS counterparts

So what happens if it’s a split series and the Bucs and Panthers both take care of business against the Falcons and Saints? Each team would hold a 4-2 divisional record that pushes them to 9-7 with one game left on the schedule.

What happens if they both lose? Both teams would be at 8-8 with 3-3 divisional records and one game left. Regardless, either one of these scenarios would push things into the common opponents tiebreaker.

To start with the simplest scenario: If the Bucs split with Carolina and beat the Falcons, they would just have to beat the Miami Dolphins in Week 17 to get in. Even if the Panthers beat the Seattle Seahawks that week. Both teams would finish 10-7 with a 4-2 division record – that would push them into the common opponents tiebreaker, where the Bucs would have a 5-3 advantage to the Panthers’ 4-4. If they both lose, they’d be 9-8 and the Bucs would still have a 4-4 advantage over the Panthers’ 3-5 record.

But, what if the Bucs lose to the Dolphins and drop to 4-4 in common games while the Panthers beat the ‘Hawks and get to 4-4, themselves? This scenario would send Baker Mayfield and Co. into the next set of tiebreakers, which doesn’t work in the Bucs’ favor if it’s the way things ultimately play out.

Conference record tiebreaker would take the Bucs out in this scenario

The Bucs would finish 7-5 in conference play compared to the Panthers’ 8-4 if it were to be a split series and both teams win their other games. This is where the road ends because the Bucs have only three conference games remaining to the Panthers’ four.

However, if the Panthers lose to the either the Saints or the Seahawks, it would also drop them to 7-5, which kicks in the strength of victory tiebreaker. This is a conditional tiebreaker, but right now, the Panthers would win because they currently hold a .473 advantage of the Bucs’ .440. That could change over the next few weeks, but it’s completely dependent on what the other teams do in different games.

Piecing it all together so it makes total sense

So, just to wrap this up: The easiest way for the Bucs to make or miss the playoffs is either to sweep the Panthers or get swept. There’s no gray area, here.

If the series gets split, the Bucs really need to beat the Falcons on Thursday night. That obviously comes before the Panthers matchups, but still has the same effect, because if the Bucs don’t beat Atlanta, but the Panthers beat New Orleans, then the Bucs are out. It goes the other way, too. If Tampa Bay beats Atlanta and the Panthers lose, the Bucs are in if it’s split series.

If the series is split and both teams win their respective remaining NFCS tilts then the Bucs are in if they beat the Dolphins. But they’re also OK if they lose to Miami as long as the Panthers lose to Seattle. If both teams lose their division games, the Bucs are fine if they beat Miami, but aren’t fine if they lose and the Panthers beat Seattle.

If they lose to Miami and the Panthers beat the Seahawks, then the Panthers will get in due to their 8-4 conference record compared to the Bucs’ 7-5 record because they would have each gone 4-4 in their common opponent matchups. If Carolina splits against the Saints and Seahawks, it’ll then move to the strength of victory tiebreaker, which is to be determined.

The Bucs still control their own destiny – the margin of error is just the smallest its ever been in 2025. Expect the final month of the season to be an intense on as Bowles and Co. try to pull themselves out of the depths and get back on track.

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